GMA to get clobbered like Bush?

Some observers, especially those allied with the opposition, are trying to liken PGMA with President Bush. Their insinuation: Come May 2007 PGMA will get what Bush got - a clobbering at the polls. How valid is this observation?

Analogy as a basis for forecasting social events may be valid at times. If the forces that trigger an event have a high degree of similarity there is a probability that the anticipated happening will take place. In the case of the GMA-Bush political scenarios does such similarity exist? Unless one is swayed by blind partisan conviction, the answer may not be what the opposition are wishing for.

True, both GMA and Bush are incumbents, and are therefore subject to criticisms for what they have done or failed to do. Beyond this however, the search for commonality seems an exercise in futility, to use a cliché.

American political analysts have predicted long before the November 7 polls the grand swell of anti-administration sentiments mainly because of its wobbly foreign policy, particularly with regard to Iraq. At the start of this imbroglio, Bush and company were already put to task with their unilateral approach against terrorism. World opinion was negative, and indeed, it took some kind of diplomatic arm-twisting before other countries including the Philippines agreed to be part of the multi-national coalition in Saddam's domain.

The blitzkrieg to Baghdad was an amazing feat and it was glory days for many Americans. But when the body bags started coming in and intertribal slaughter escalated the American public got their wakeup call. Now even with 144 thousand troops and a shell out of more than a 100 billion dollars yearly, the whole affair has become like the morass that was Vietnam.

PGMA for her part does not have an Iraq. Her quick decision to pull out Filipino troops from that war zone had in fact added feathers on her cap. Some detractors say that her handling of the secessionist groups, MILF and NPA, plus the upswing of violence against media men would drag her down on election day. But others say that there's an ongoing peace talk between the government and MILF and presently armed actions in Mindanao are limited only to Abu Sayyaf. As for the NPAs, why, GMA's all-out war against this 40-year problem seems to have gained public acquiescence. Salvaging against journalists is of course an unfortunate phenomenon but to link GMA with it is a farfetched speculation.

There are those who say that the election of Bush's brother as governor of Florida was questionable and this could have been one reason for the President's poll defeat. Similarly, they say, GMA's doubtful win could have a negative effect in the 2007 elections. They could be partly right. But unless concrete evidence surfaces, the "Hello Garcia" affair would hardly create a fatal impact. Remember how the opposition tried to capitalize on this issue early last year? Their attempts to stir up social turbulence capped with an aborted dalliance with military adventurists and communist insurgents, plus an impeachment dare-these all failed. Will this issue still ring a bell in the voters' ears?

Now let's look at the American economy. The US has a much higher per capita income ($ 37,610 in 2003) than that of other developed countries. Its overage annual GDP growth rate has been in the vicinity of 2.9% while the average GDP per capita growth rate has been 2% or more, a figure which rose to 3.5% in 2005. In all indications the American economy has been healthy.

Can we say the same thing for the Philippine economy? It depends upon what is your political persuasion. If you hobnob with the opposition, the economy is in shambles, but if you listen to Malacañang it's a different story. At any rate, the peso is strongest in four years, our GNP is substantial (at 4.7%), inflation is below 5%, dollar deposit at 22 billion is the highest in years, while unemployment has been decreasing. In fact, the country's economy was recently upgraded by an international accrediting body. Of course the issue of the poverty will always be invoked by the opposition. But this one will sound like a broken record to which nobody listens. Yet with a fairly prosperous economy the American electors did not listen to Bush. Will the Filipinos too turn deaf ears to GMA?

Perhaps it would be logical for the opposition to stop rejoicing at Bush's defeat. There's simply no similarity between GMA and Bush, or between Philippine and American politics. Perhaps GMA will get some disappointments come 2007, but it would not be as serious as Bush's.

* * *

Email: [email protected]