An earthquake may be overdue

The country is on terror alert and still agog on dismantling billboards after the damage left by a recent strong typhoon. The face of the news changes as time changes and no matter how prepared we are for the worse, something makes us lose guard.

We cannot seem to avoid post-tragedy action simply because the latest scientific and technological tools can only allow us to predict with a measure. We may, however, be guided by actual events attested by historical records.

Manila is very often subject to earthquakes. Renato Solidum, Director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said that 90 strong quakes had been recorded here over the last 400 years, or a statistical average of one major quake every four to five years. "The last strong quake to hit us was in 1994. Over time, the possibility of another strong earthquake increases." Solidum further said that "an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 in the Richter Scale is overdue and could hit the country soon and affect at least 38 percent of all residential and commercial buildings in Manila".

Aside from this, Phivolcs studies show that at least five earthquakes occur in the Philippines everyday, but we cannot feel them because they are scarcely perceptible. All these prove that the Philippines is seismologically active and prone to earthquakes.

A Japan-funded study called Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) that started in August 2002 identified the West Valley Fault, which lies just northeast of Manila, as "the fault expected to cause the largest impact in the metropolis".

In the 16th century, the Filipinos, after surviving fatal earthquakes, had developed a simple architecture to avoid hazards caused by earthquakes. the nipa hut is one of our best defense against earthquakes.

If a major earthquake were to hit Metro Manila today, could disaster response authorities cope with the damage that would be caused?

The Department of Public Works and Highways has identified 60 establishments including five public schools, two government offices and one government-run hospital in Metro Manila are earthquake-prone and need fitting and rehabilitation. With its population of 10 million, Metro Manila is densely populated with several clusters and districts having high-rise buildings closely built. The MMEIRS study projects the "big earthquake" to be unlike any tragedy seen or imagined in Metro Manila. People working during office hours and inside buildings should always be aware. A number of buildings could collapse, bridges and power posts toppled down and fire caused by electricity short circuits and petroleum leakages. We should imagine the worst to happen if we are to be prepared.

Devastating earthquakes have caused damage to Metro Manila in the past and more than twice on St. Andrew’s Day. His feast falls on November 30.