Puppets on a string

Over the weekend, the killings of radicals and Leftists continued. Bayan Muna leader Noli Capulong and former New People’s Army chief Sotero Llamas were gunned down. The natural and usual suspects are the Armed Forces and the Philippine National Police, especially in light of 46 other killings of activist leaders so far this year.

So what in God’s good name is going on? These killings are occurring when public sensitivity is high on the matter. The government has issued public statements about the absence of any declared or unspoken policy to eliminate radicals and critical journalists. Thus, one question that keeps cropping is: Who’s in control here?

Are the military and the police running amuck, feigning obedience to the commander-in-chief while ordering "death squads" to keep the body count rising? Have our uniformed men and women become so callous to public opinion, to constant media coverage, and to desperate privilege speeches in Congress, that despite all the publicity and scrutiny, they simply go on with their rampage as if nothing happened?

Or, as some analysts have asked, has the government been taken over by a sinister right-wing cabal that is determined not only to settle old scores, but to implement what in their minds is an effective and ultimate cleansing of all subversives in this country, now and forevermore?

This is, of course, simplistic poppycock. Whatever opinions one might hold about the quality of the military or the police, to claim that they have decided to go it alone in regard to the insurgency is completely unfair. It also assumes a pervasive weakness and gullibility in the civilian authority which is unsupported by evidence.

At the same time, it ignores a third alternative to the proffered explanations of either a deadly military/police witch-hunt or purges allegedly being conducted by radicals themselves within their ranks. A third possibility is that rightist "destabilizers," many of whom have remained fugitives for months and are indubitably well organized and armed, are doing the dastardly deeds.

Their reason? Why, precisely to destabilize and to portray the GMA government as either not in control of its own armed forces, police and other law enforcers or as engaged in a deliberate campaign to suppress fundamental liberties, eliminate all political opposition and neutralize, permanently if necessary, all Leftist activists.

Is positing this possibility too paranoid? Have we become, in the wake of The Da Vinci Code too obsessed with non-existent plots and conspiracies, and with the hidden meanings of straightforward events? I don’t think so. Let’s start with a simple cost-benefit analysis. What is the cost of all this adverse publicity? Who benefits?

Let me clarify that, for purposes of this analysis, we are not talking about the personal cost of the killings to victims and their families. The toll these tragedies take on their lives and futures is unquestionably incalculable. What we’re talking about here is the political cost and how that translates to the national interest.

Clearly, the political cost to the GMA government has been immense, in terms of lost focus on urgent priorities like the impact of rising oil prices on the economy, declining confidence of investors, and the stress caused by a persistent climate of unremitting political crisis.

When you further consider the unresolved debates on Cha-cha, the Batasan Five and Estrada Five controversies, and the continuing calls for GMA’s resignation from people and institutions of no mean substance such as two former Presidents and an influential segment of the leadership of the Catholic Church, one would have to say that GMA needs this mess over the killing of journalists and radicals like a hole in the head.

But who benefits? Incredibly, some people would insist that it’s GMA. They argue that by allowing military leaders to do as they please with activists, she firms up the alliance with them and insures her political survival. This might make sense if her "dependence" on the military were happening in a political vacuum. But it isn’t, and there are already indications that dredging up the Leftist bogey at this time may be more damaging and, in fact, hasten her downfall.

A government policy, declared or not, which permits the assassination of aging Leftist leaders, some of whom have "returned to the folds of the law," the deliberate torture of political opponents on trumped-up charges of rebellion, and the indiscriminate killing of critical journalists, simply to "please" the military would be so brainless that any "adviser" who suggests it should immediately be thrown into the polluted Pasig.

At a time when the Philippines is trying to get back on the international economic "radar screen," when we seem so determined to be seriously considered as a working democracy, why would we suddenly reverse course and make ourselves appear as an old-style banana republic with a petty dictator in charge.

When the military and the police are under so much public suspicion, what sort of mind would order them to continue killing known personalities like Capulong and Llamas? Are they such masochists, such suckers for punishment?

Unless, of course, all this plays a role in the ultimate Holy Grail, the ousting of President GMA. If impeachment has not worked, and doesn’t look like it will work, if EDSA 4 isn’t catching on, if calls for resignation keep crashing on the rocks of a lack of any perceived viable alternative, why then perhaps an alleged campaign to crush all political opposition, press freedom and human rights might do the trick.

The thing this charge does, especially when former insurgents and current radicals have an awful tendency to keep turning up with bodies liberally peppered with bullets, is that we attract attention, international attention, that is.

Accordingly, the United States has been making noises. So has the European Community. The Western democracies, so enamored of the blessings of democracy and so intent on spreading that gospel throughout the heathen world, will not remain silent in the face of such a blatant assault on democratic ideals, especially by a country so expertly tutored by no less than the U.S.

I am not saying that the AFP and PNP are totally blameless. Neither can use good faith or over-zealous personnel to excuse any abuses that might be uncovered in the on-going investigations. But a deliberate campaign by the government to rub out all activists? There is more than meets the eye here.