Int’l community will not support a coup

At the last Manila Rotary Club luncheon, the guest speaker was the amiable and very friendly Amb. Peter Beckingham from Great Britain, who spoke extemporaneously about the improving British-Filipino relations. During the open forum, he was quite candid and said his government will not recognize any government that takes over by extra-constitutional means. In other words, a coup. This obviously set the tone on how the international community looks at this much-talked about coup reportedly being hatched. US Embassy Chargé d’Affaires Paul W. Jones, who is now currently the highest US official in the Philippines, told me that the United States will definitely not support a military takeover. He has repeatedly said this on many occasions both publicly and privately. The US government continues to believe that the situation in the country will continue to be stable despite repeated calls for GMA’s resignation.

US Senator Richard Lugar also said the same thing. He virtually gave his assurance that the US would not support any extra-constitutional adventure. If one could recall, Sen. Paul Laxalt was sent by then President Reagan to tell Marcos to "cut and cut cleanly" during the 1986 EDSA People Power revolution. The US has had a bad experience in the past with supporting regime changes through military juntas mostly in Latin American countries like Cuba, Guatemala, and Chile.

As of late, the Americans had been consistent with their insistence on democratic processes. So far, they have been singing the same tune. Africa – long notorious for coups and dictatorships – has seen an upsurge in democracy. In fact, with their support for legitimate and democratic regimes, US First Lady Laura Bush was sent to attend the inauguration of Liberia’s first woman president.

The days of military dictatorships are over. Marcos used the communist bogeyman as his main justification for declaring martial law. He was able to convince Richard Nixon that it was the only way to "save the Republic." Effectively, it was an executive coup. Today, that is no longer true because the times and threats have changed. In the case of EDSA 2, signals were wrongly transmitted to the Americans through Chargé d’Affaires Mike Malinowski. Ed Angara had informed Malinowski that President Estrada had indeed resigned. Concluding that it was true, the US immediately recognized GMA as the new president. Shortly after, the rest of the international community did the same.

It is a well-known fact, the US will only support regime change like in Iraq and Afghanistan if a country becomes a terrorist state supporting terrorist activities or if it becomes a major hub for money-laundering and drug-trafficking like in the case of Panama. The US will certainly take drastic measures if their national interest and security are at stake. This was the case in Afghanistan, a direct reaction to 911. General Noriega was physically removed by the Americans because he was reportedly involved with drugs. Certainly, we don’t want the Philippines to go that way to have a regime change and have foreign intervention.

What should really concern us is the undeniable fact that countries under military rule like Myanmar and North Korea are being isolated by the international community in terms of recognition and economic assistance. These countries continue to be economically backward due to their isolation. Archbishop Gaudencio Rosales, whom I have come to highly respect, came out with a calm and collected statement – any attempt to change the government through forceful means will only make the majority of Filipinos who are poor suffer even more. Most definitely, the economy will suffer.

But GMA’s government must continue to make the right moves and carefully listen to the pulse of the nation. No matter how much the international community rejects coups, internal security is what matters most. Because if the people are suffering and law and order collapses – a coup could very well take place.

But in reality, the only solution to our political impasse is through a peaceful process. That is why honest-to-goodness reforms must continue to take place. However, any changes in the form of government must be made with the concurrence and approval of the people. Let the people decide what kind of government they want – one that will take into consideration the unique nature and temperament of the Filipino. FVR’s graceful exit scenario is not so popular but it could still be an option to consider. The bottom line is – a coup is only a quick-fix solution. In the end, it will fail.

* * *

E-mail: [email protected]