Rumor mill

Destabilization has become so easy these days. Mischief can spread quickly through text messaging and the Internet.

An opposition member likes to say that all he needs to do to make the administration jump is to invite friends to a small gathering, talk about launching a coup and leak the story to the press. On a slow day, it could warrant a headline.

Most Filipinos, used to the rumor mongering network that has grown with rapid advances in information technology, know enough not to believe everything they receive by text.

Many Filipinos have also learned to laugh off the antics of people like Fortunato Abat and his kindred spirits who dream of short cuts to Malacañang.

During the Aquino administration, there were jokes about making coup attempts a uniquely Pinoy tourist attraction. These days coup jokes have gone stale in a nation that has had no respite from coup rumors for the past five years.

But rumors gain some credibility when Cabinet members themselves are the ones announcing destabilization threats.

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During the weekend the rumor mills went on overdrive after Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez disclosed fresh coup threats. National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales chimed in with his story that five escaped mutineers were forging a tactical alliance with communist rebels to overthrow the government. This one gained some credence after the fugitives issued a statement calling on other members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines to join them in installing a new social order.

For a while there I thought the mutineers had joined forces with former President Fidel Ramos and Speaker Jose de Venecia in pushing for a shift to a parliamentary system. But NSA Gonzales’ story seems more plausible.

Just when the Cabinet members’ warnings start making sense, however, something doesn’t add up. It’s hard to see how sensible military officers can consider even the briefest tactical alliance with communist rebels, who think every member of the uniformed services is a legitimate target of assassination. If the fugitive mutineers have truly joined up with the reds, they all deserve each other.

Those loose ends fueled yet another rumor over the weekend: that the administration itself was feeding the coup rumor mill, though for what arcane purpose no one could say.

For a while there were even rumors that the administration itself was behind the "escape" of four mutineers from detention in what was supposed to be the tightly secured headquarters of the Philippine Army at Fort Bonifacio. The name of an expert in political dirty tricks, who now appears to be salivating for a key government position, cropped up.

There were no significant troop movements that would have worried the administration during the EDSA II anniversary week. A fugitive Marine captain posing for photographs in military and police camps where nobody knows him does not constitute troop movement. Even four fugitive mutineers do not constitute troops. They can attempt to recruit supporters within the AFP and the Philippine Military Academy. But while they are likely to get many expressions of sympathy, that sentiment must still translate into active support for breaking the chain of command. You don’t see that happening in the future, despite all the scandals hounding this administration.

So why feed coup rumors? What do they think they’re doing?

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As we saw during the Oakwood mutiny in 2003, and in every press conference of Abat and company, you can put together a small group to stage some military mischief or summon people power, but it doesn’t mean we will soon be seeing a repeat of EDSA I or II. As the leaders of the Oakwood mutiny learned, to their deep disappointment, youthful charisma is not enough.

The absence of public support for a coup is not due to any particular fondness for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, but rather the fear of the alternatives as espoused by a bunch of self-styled saviors of the people with testosterone running amuck, no matter how charismatic or telegenic those saviors might be.

And no matter how valid the grievances of young, idealistic military officers, Filipinos still have lingering bad memories of martial law and the endless coup attempts launched by charismatic, telegenic military officers during the Aquino administration. This nation will never entrust the reins of government to a military junta.

Young, idealistic officers can be easily manipulated by many of our politicians, who think a coup remains a viable launching pad to Malacañang. But many Filipinos have wised up to these politicians.

You almost wish those fugitive mutineers would get it over with and stage Oakwood II, or whichever luxurious venue they might pick next time, so they can see what the people really think of their adventures.

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During the holidays the coup rumors were fueled by a warning from Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago. The coup plot was apparently supposed to coincide with the first death anniversary of presidential contender Fernando Poe Jr. Filipinos, however, were too busy with Christmas to bother about regime change.

This time the coup rumors coincided with the fifth anniversary of people power II. This year’s anniversary, however, will always be remembered for the nation’s palpable effort to forget the event. For the first time, there was no gathering at the EDSA Shrine, whether for or against the government — not even the usual Mass attended by the President, who was in no mood to celebrate anything.

Yesterday the nation paused from rumor mongering and political bickering to watch Manny Pacquiao beat Mexico’s Erik Morales with a TKO in the 10th round in Las Vegas. We need more stories like this.

Despite the prevailing euphoria over Pacquiao’s victory, however, we can expect the coup rumors to persist at least until the 20th anniversary of the first people power revolt on Feb. 25. Filipinos may be tired of military-backed people power uprisings, but certain quarters are not yet ready to give up trying.

And they are helped along by an overactive rumor mill.