Who’s afraid of FVR?

You have to hand it to Fidel Ramos. The way people are hanging on to every word he utters these days, you’d think he’s back in power.

He is scheduled to hold a press conference today, where he is expected to finally talk about his recent meeting with Senate President Franklin Drilon and former senator Vicente Sotto III of the opposition’s Fernando Poe faction.

The press conference is eagerly awaited despite Ramos’ recent public pronouncement that he had no intention of joining the opposition. And despite the fact that a key topic at the meeting had already been bared: the three men’s opposition to an administration-backed proposal to scrap the mid-term elections next year.

Yesterday the Ramos camp bared another interesting detail — that he also met with former vice president Teofisto Guingona. As officials of the same political party, the two men surely keep in touch regularly, but circumstances can now give a different color to their chats.

In the United States, former presidents unite to raise funds for tsunami and hurricane victims, broker peace and build low-cost housing facilities outside their countries, open museums and write their memoirs. Aware of the difficulties of the presidency, they avoid giving unsolicited advice to the incumbent, although they might allow their wife to do so.

Our country is closer to Peru, where former president Alberto Fujimori is attempting a comeback despite being permanently barred from holding public office amid charges of corruption and human rights violations during his decade-long rule.

All three of our surviving former presidents refuse to go quietly into retirement. They not only give unsolicited advice; they also demand the resignation of the incumbent. No wonder they serve as inspirations for coup-plotting retired military generals and jobless former Cabinet members.

Ramos is no Fujimori; FVR relinquished power without formal charges of corruption or human rights violation staining his record, although there were always rumors about anomalous deals during his watch.

Fujimori’s case is closer to that of Joseph Estrada, still detained without bail for plunder. Erap has made no secret of his willingness to stage a political comeback.

For all his mass appeal, however, it’s not Erap who’s staging a comeback of sorts these days but his predecessor Ramos.

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The comeback is largely due to the reaction of Malacañang to reports about Ramos. Who’s afraid of FVR? It would be interesting to get an answer to this question from the Palace.

The Palace reaction is all the more interesting because Ramos has consistently rated low in surveys on popularity and public trust. Unlike Erap, FVR has no solid mass base that he can mobilize come election time or for people power.

Despite his repeated denials, Ramos is also suspected of involvement in anti-government agitation in the military. Why should Malacañang trust him?

Obviously there are Palace officials who have enormous trust in him, and believe him when he says he does not intend to join the opposition.

That pricks another bubble blown by Erap, who has shown the greatest eagerness in teaming up with his two fellow retired presidents against Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

In the first place, while Erap and Corazon Aquino seem to get along well, it’s still incongruous for the icon of people power to team up with a man who lost the presidency on accusations of plunder.

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To his credit, Erap seems pragmatic enough to see that his circumstances prevent him from staging a comeback at this time.

Malacañang treads carefully when it comes to dealing with former presidents. Even in detention, and despite the continuing public jokes about Erap, Palace officials do not dismiss him as a joke. He is the most pampered detainee in the country. They even foolishly considered making him participate in the Council of State, giving him an opportunity to question the legitimacy of the administration.

Palace officials also continue to treat Cory Aquino with deference. This despite the fact that last year even Aquino allies were wondering if the so-called Cory magic had disappeared for good, after her calls for regime change were ignored both by the administration and the people.

Malacañang has had the opportunity to test the strengths of both the Aquino and Estrada camps, and has hurdled the tests.

Ramos, on the other hand, is an imponderable factor. He has never pretended to enjoy massive public support. He won the presidency on a plurality — something that his closest rival Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago still disputes. Despite relative peace and prosperity during his incumbency, he could not persuade the people to support Charter change that could have allowed him to seek a second term.

But in the political crisis that started last year, he has managed to turn himself into a fulcrum for the administration, someone whose slight movement could tip the balance in favor of the opposition.

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With one derisive statement, Ramos could disparage the antics of his loyal former defense chief Fortunato Abat as symptoms of approaching senility, thus helping frustrate agitation in the military for another coup attempt.

Being an icon of people power himself, Ramos’ support for the administration at the height of the crisis last year helped blunt Cory Aquino’s efforts to throw out another president.

With the Roman Catholic Church disengaging itself from politics, Ramos is one of the few power brokers left. And he has shown no reluctance in playing that role to the hilt.

He may not enjoy the mass popularity of a former movie star like Erap, but Ramos enjoys the support of Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. and his allies in the administration party. And no, Rep. Ronaldo Puno, whose camp must be spreading the rumor that he will soon be back as secretary of the interior, does not have the clout to challenge De Venecia. As for Prospero Pichay, the knives are out and he should watch his back.

If her political allies unite with the opposition, what will happen to Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo?

We will know soon enough, when Ramos finally talks. You have to hand it to him — he even knows how to build up interest in what he has to say. Not quite a return to power, but it’s a comeback Ramos surely relishes.