2005 political storms to surge into 2006

2005’s political crisis ended in stalemate. Through the "Hello Garci" CD, the Opposition vilified President Gloria Arroyo to -30 net popularity ratings. The year ended with 80 percent of Filipinos polled believing she cheated her 2004 election and 65 percent wanting her out. Still, Ms Arroyo clung to office. Protest marchers remained constant at 5,000, and only twice spiked to 15,000 then to 45,000 – paltry compared to the people-power revolts of 1986 and 2001. Congress quashed her foes’ afterthought of an impeachment rap that blamed her for scams of her predecessor, like the Piatco deal, and all killings related to counter-insurgency skirmishes. The Opposition just couldn’t to unite to bring Ms Arroyo down. On the other hand, local officials rallied around her. As she sat secure, she proved the Chinese saying right: what doesn’t kill you will make you stronger.

And because it was a stalemate, the Opposition lost. In brainy chess as in brawny boxing, tied matches end up with the champion retaining the crown because the contender did not try hard enough to knock it down. In Tagalog, it’s called tabla-talo, even-loses.

2006 will open with the Opposition girding for a rematch. They’ve telegraphed as much punches. Senate President Franklin Drilon said on New Year’s Eve there still has been no closure to the "Hello Garci" storm. As Liberal Party head, he insinuated a revived inquiry on the supposedly irregular Northrail project, not so much to bring charges in court perhaps than to eclipse the administration Lakas Party’s own probe of his overpriced Iloilo airport expansion. Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr. too forecast "Hello Garci" to haunt Ms Arroyo into 2006.

Other old charges will be raked up. Sen. Panfilo Lacson this early is kicking up a storm over the President’s Bridges Program, a British-funded project that at one time had been handled by a past Malacañang official who is now his political benefactor. He is also on a holiday publicity binge, subtly wangling front-page placement for press statements. Intelligence findings have it that he was in touch with a cabal of retired and active-duty police and military officers to stage a yearend coup d’etat. A former politico and Philippine Military Academy classmate had even visited for him some detained officers of the Oakwood mutiny of July 2003. But the plot fizzled when Lacson allegedly told the leaders to ditch their planned junta and install him alone instead. Another PMA classmate supposedly told him they might as well disband. That prompted an old general to try to save the coup by declaring himself interim President, but still no strike followed. Word is that Lacson is growing desperate with investigations in the US linking him to filching of top-secret White House papers by a former aide. This supposedly explains his desire for high profile and power grab.

Other senators have pet charges to revive. Inquiries on the illegal numbers game jueteng will strive to link the First Family anew, even if only by hearsay. That jueteng resurged in some provinces at the same time that presidential spouse Mike Arroyo returned from five-month self-exile will be the new slant. Conveniently to be forgotten are recurrent reports that a Liberal Party governor no less is behind the thrice-daily draws in Southern Tagalog. The high-publicity probe of the fertilizer scam also will go on, even though enough evidence has been gathered by far to indict former President’s men.

Political issues also will be raised against Ms Arroyo. There’s the matter of her recent weak appointees to Malacañang posts and Customs, and conflicts of interest of a Palace official. Too, there’s No-El (no elections in 2007) that is being blamed on Ms Arroyo’s "rubberstamp" Consultative Commission on Constitutional Amendments instead of its real concocter, the Union of Local Assemblies of the Philippines that binds governors, mayors, vices, provincial board members, and city and town councilors. The Joseph Estrada-faction of the Opposition will be suspected of fanning the charges, inquiries and issues. For, the deposed ex-President has all the reasons for political chaos to spring him out of jailed trial for plunder.

2005’s political typhoons lulled in December. Opposition politicos needed to take a Christmas vacation like ordinary Filipinos did. But early 2006 expectedly will witness downpours. Historically, all major Philippine upheavals – the First Quarter Storm of 1970, EDSA-1 of February 1986, EDSA-2 of January 2001 – break out after the Christmas merrymaking. The Katipunan’s Cry of Pugad Lawin in August 1896 subsided in December but resurged after the New Year, albeit with losing skirmishes against Spanish outposts. The Filipino-American War broke out in February 1899 only after Aguinaldo’s forces quietly watched the US annexation of the Philippine islands in October-December of 1898. The Sakdal Uprising of May 1935 was hatched the previous quarter. If it learned from history, today’s Opposition will make a push during this first quarter as well of 2006.

Problem is, if the stars will favor the Opposition with unity from which to draw strength. 2006, the Year of the Red Fire Dog, augurs peace and contentment. It will be a year of relief for those born under the sign of the Pig, like Ms Arroyo. Chinese geomancy aside, Filipinos have grown tired of their politicians’ antics. One out of every three of them wish to emigrate, because hopeless with the way politics has sunk the country. Ironically that very hopelessness, turning into skepticism with all leaders, could save the day for Ms Arroyo.

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