Needed: a deus-ex-machina

The verdict was not unexpected. Politics and the rise in the price of oil to dizzying heights were the culprits responsible for the slowdown in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which failed to achieve the 5 percent growth that the government had hoped for in the third quarter.

This was what the top men of business organizations, economic analysts and the eggheads of the banking and financial community said after government economists announced that GDP growth for the July to September period was a not-too-encouraging 4.1 percent, down from the 4.6 percent and 4.7 percent growth in the first and second quarters respectively.

Well, what did we expect? The third quarter was when the price of oil in the international market broke through the stratosphere, nearly sending both our people and business community to the abyss of despair.

It was also the time when political noise in the country reached ear-splitting decibels, when the telenovelas that featured the so-called Garci tapes, the jueteng scandal and the long-drawn impeachment drama competed for TV primetime and riveted public attention to the idiot box. Lest we forget, we still have to witness the denouement to the theatrical presentation being stage-managed by the Citizens Congress for Truth and Accountability, to catcalls of "Kangaroo Court" from the allies of the administration.

And our politicians are not even done yet. Amid the overall rejoicing generated by our athletes’ tremendously successful performance in the 23rd SEA Games, opposition partisans have now drawn apart the stage curtains to unveil yet two more dramatic presentations being played, almost simultaneously, in that opera house of all seasons called Congress.

In the Bigger House, our representatives are trying to wean audiences young and old away from ABS-CBN’s "Bahay ni Kuya" to the resumption of their probe on the Garci tapes. Their main attraction here is former Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano who suddenly materialized from his hiding place somewhere in Mindanao. Or was it Singapore, the United Kingdom, Malaysia or Sabah? Saan nga ba, Kuya Garci?

Not to be outdone, the honorable gentlemen of the Smaller House, a.k.a. the Senate, have also resumed their own investigation on the same subject. Thursday morning, their featured witness was a certain Ms. Santos, said to be one of the two girlfriends of the very-much married and aptly surnamed Sergeant Doble and who purportedly witnessed the turnover of a P2-million bribe to the sergeant, one of those reportedly involved in the illegal wiretapping (the guy is not only doble-kara, triple-kara pa).

Doble is supposedly the source of the controversial tape played on live TV by the still-in-hiding NBI assistant director Samuel Ong. He is said to be one of the ISAFP operatives who did the actual, dirty job of tapping into the phone conversation of the President and a Comelec official, allegedly Garcillano, which the latter denied in the Lower House hearing.

So the Garci tapes merry-go-round goes on merrily. Never mind if it put a damper to the giddy feeling that enveloped us in the aftermath of the magnificent performance of our sportsmen and women.

Never mind, too, if these politicians spoil the Christmas spirit that has now descended upon this politics-accursed land.

They, too, have a job to do. One of which is to afflict those in the opposite side of the political fence.

Santa Claus is coming to town, remember? And we can only hope that the politicians would ease off, at least during this period which is supposed to be a season of goodwill to men.

Our Overseas Filipino Workers’ remittances, which would total some $12 billion for this year according to the World Bank, for instance, continue to bring joy to their families. Incidentally, this huge inflow has also helped boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves to an all-time high of $18.1 billion as of October this year, far surpassing the Bangko Sentral’s most optimistic projection of $17 billion for the whole year.

Coupled with the vigorous investments from abroad, the OFW funds propelled the peso to breach the P54 to a dollar level, rising to as high as P53.85 to the US currency before the close of intra-day Wednesday, November 7.

The high international reserves mean we have enough dollars and we need not resort to additional borrowings to meet our payments for imports. That means we can pay our foreign creditors on time and they have no reason to raise the interests for our foreign loans.

The stronger peso also means we will be paying less for our imports. In very practical terms, where we used to pay more than P56 for every dollar worth of imported oil, now we will only be paying P54 or less, or an effective savings of P2 per dollar. That’s partly why the price of gasoline and diesel today has been reduced five times since October 31. In fact the prices of these petroleum products are lower today than before the reformed VAT was imposed last November 1.

These price rollbacks have, therefore, made a direct impact on our people, particularly the jeepney, bus and taxi drivers and the harried housewives.

It also means the huge budget deficit will be reduced substantially. The fact is, Finance Secretary Gary Teves expects the deficit to go down from the targeted P180 billion for 2005 to possibly less than P150 billion. He has good reason for this positive outlook since the reformed VAT is expected to bring in some P4 billion to P5 billion for the two months that it will be in effect this year.

The projection is that when VAT is increased to 12 percent by February next year, it could raise at least P50 billion more for the government, which again means that the budget deficit could be trimmed down further. That, in turn, would free more money for infrastructure and social services.

Initially, 20 percent of total collection would go to basic services. This would be broken down to 6 percent for public elementary and secondary education, 4 percent for health insurance premiums of poor families, 6 percent for environmental conservation, and 4 percent for agriculture modernization.

Also an estimated 1,102 kilometers of farm-to-market roads can be built from the 4 percent set aside for agricultural modernization and environmental conservationists can look forward to the reforestation of some 9,190 hectares of denuded land.

Word from the Department of Finance says that from the 30 percent set aside in 2006, the allocations from the incremental revenue from VAT will be increased by 5 percent annually until it reaches 50 percent in 2010. Assuming that the collections come up to at least P100 billion by that time, that means P50 billion more for public services.

Even if the 30-50 percent increase in the VAT allocation for basic services will only be felt starting middle of next year, isn’t that reason enough for hope and optimism in the near future?

The price of oil in the international market is something over which we have no control at all. But political bickering is a man-made adversity that all of us can do something about, if only our politicians can set aside their own self-serving agenda and think about national unity for once.

How we wish that the denoument to all these political dramas and telenovelas would turn into some kind of deus-ex-machina, the Greek and Roman plays of old that the gods would lower down from above, and give all these controversies a happy ending for our people.

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