They believed their own lies

Apart from hinting of the Opposition, the FBI has yet to divulge the three past and present Philippine officials who conspired with an insider to steal secret files. But from press leaks a picture has emerged – that of an Opposition that took off from the purloined papers as their script to depose Gloria Arroyo.

The charge sheet avers that FBI-New York analyst Lean Aragoncillo began passing classified documents in January through ex-colonel Michael Ray Aquino. Sen. Panfilo Lacson inadvertently admitted as much when he told reporters that Aquino had been e-mailing him since the start of the year items on the Philippine political scene. That was the first time he acknowledged contact with his former police aide, a fugitive from murder and kidnapping in Manila. Ex-President Joseph Estrada, son Sen. Jinggoy Estrada and Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel too have admitted communicating with either or both Aragoncillo and Aquino.

Manila newspapers have published tidbits on the filched files. Some of these turn out to be reports to Washington drafted by the US embassy in Manila on brewing political events. One was an April 15 memo from chargé d’affaires Joseph Mussomeli about two military coup plots against Arroyo, whose survey ratings were then sinking. By contrast, that note stated, ex-president Joseph Estrada’s popularity was rising despite detention on graft raps. "He equates legitimacy with popular support, and his intention to revive the pro-Estrada fervor has already produced destabilization rumors," Mussomeli wrote.

Also leaked was a second account by Mussomeli, dated June 2, four days before the "Hello Garci" CD broke to spark the worst crisis of Arroyo’s four-year reign. It noted the coup plotters’ lack of civilian support, but that the Opposition was uniting into a "core-committee of leaders." Too, "plans by Opposition groups would begin with civilian demonstrations or strikes that would provoke an overreaction from Arroyo, providing a pretext for military action."

A third leak was political officer Andrew MacLearn’s report, filed July 12. It focused on the events of July 8, when ten Cabinet men, Senate President Franklin Drilon, former President Cory Aquino and the Makati Business Club broke from Arroyo and demanded her abdication. Quoting unnamed clandestine sources, MacLearn wrote: "Junior and field-grade officers within the AFP noted that they did not back the Administration, and actively supported Arroyo’s resignation." A fourth was an FBI review, again by Mussomeli, portraying VP Noli de Castro as inept in domestic and foreign issues, so the country would be worse off under him.

There is uncanny correlation of the reports’ contents with Opposition initiatives. Dates and events coincide to somehow confirm that they indeed got copies of the swiped FBI files. Such date-event links stem from what de Castro recently lambasted: a perverse belief of traditional politicians that they can rise only with US blessing.

Estrada from out of the blue in April declared he was still President and would try to regain the post from behind bars. This was strange, for although he was ousted by "extra-constitutional" people’s uprising in 2001, he eventually accepted his fate in 2004, when what should have been his full term expired. In fact, Estrada had helped fund the presidential run that year of movie buddy Fernando Poe. He also backed Poe’s consequent poll protest, just that the latter died of stroke in December. His sudden switch of political line in April – from Poe being duly elected President to his being still President – could have been prompted by a surreptitious reading and probable misinterpretation of a US report on him.

Other Opposition acts correspond to similar evident over-reading of a former colonizer’s secrets. There was this unexplained insistence on de Castro’s resignation although he was never linked in the "Hello Garci" CD to election fraud. Likewise, on forming a junta or a transition council – variants of a "core-committee of leaders" – instead of following the succession rule. There was perennial talk too of coups in the making, and agitation for provocative people-power revolt. Up to Martial Law’s 33rd anniversary last week, there were attempts to associate Arroyo with dictatorship, when it was the handiwork of the father of Opposition leader Rep. Imee Marcos and allies like Rep. Ronaldo Zamora or Lacson (in the infamous Metrocom).

US embassy spokesmen will never confirm or deny. But as Foreign Affairs assistant secretary Gilbert Asuque reveals, it is normal practice for diplomats to file intelligence info and analyses in countries of posting. US officials often chat with political, business and media leaders to elicit or confirm items. Opposition figures are always part of the invitation list. The intelligence tips go through group evaluation and then sent to Washington for further study, before submission to State department or security VIPs as White House briefings.

At times such spy reports educe unintended results, as when falling to the wrong hands. In the Philippine case, Filipino-American Aragoncillo happened to be acquainted with wealthy Opposition leaders and $500,000 in debt. He happened to have access, albeit in breach of FBI rules, to records on his homeland. From that confluence, according to the charge sheet, he then plotted with Aquino to download the secret files and e-mail these to the trio in Manila.

Whoever the unnamed trio is (there could be more), they must have felt glee with US intelligence bits, many of which came from them to begin with. Using the same US reports as bases, they plotted Arroyo’s overthrow. They swallowed their own vomit; they bought their own lies. No wonder they failed to topple her.

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