After the ‘GMA resign’ gambit flopped completely, let’s see ‘what next’?

It’s clear, come hell or high water (both come, by the way), La Gloria won’t resign. When this writer spoke with her Saturday, she reiterated, "No, never."

Calls for "sacrifice", for her to resign for blah-blah’s sake, which would have been valid and more credible if they hadn’t been mouthed by hypocrites or power-seekers, didn’t work – and won’t work. Nobody’s forgotten, La Presidenta least of all, what happens when an embattled President loses the seat of power in Malacañang and with it "Presidential immunity." After Joseph "Erap" Estrada was toppled, the first thing his former Vice-President and successor did was have Erap arrested, slapped in jail and haled off to court. GMA certainly doesn’t relish the prospect of the same thing being done to her – by Noli her Vice-President, di ba?

The street protesters? Even on SONA Day they failed to materialize in significant numbers. Sanamagan, the Radical Leftists and Reds even tried, belatedly, to camouflage themselves by putting aside most of their red banners and streamers, and waving "Cory" yellow, but they were easily spotted. In a way, GMA owes the Leftists her heartfelt thanks. She ought to send them bouquets of.. well, red roses. Owing to their threatening presence and belligerence, the old foes of the Communist movement, the military and the police – even the restless and discontented young officers in the armed forces – thought not only twice but three times, and decided not to stage a mutiny or take kudeta action.

Is the embattled GMA "out of the woods"? Not yet – and not really. There’s still the "impeachment" test.

Will it prosper? The Opposition has been talking of "creeping impeachment" – meaning they may not have the 79 votes needed in the Lower House now, enabling them to go beyond the Judiciary Committee and send the "impeachment" up to the Senate. But they claim that day by day, week by week, they will be able to recruit additional members of the House of Representatives to affix their signatures. Let’s see.

But remember: when there was a clamor to "impeach" United States President Bill Clinton ("where the heck did he put that cigar?"), in the end the voting devolved to stonewalling along party lines. Not only did Bill "I never had sex with that woman" Clinton surmount the "impeachment" offensive, but even his humiliation of being publicly questioned on worldwide television about what he did with Monica Lewinsky.

I’m a firm believer in the Doctrine of the Last Man Standing. If they throw everything at you including the kitchen sink and shoot at you from all directions, and send a hundred arrows at you, and – when the smoke clears – you’re still standing, you’ve won. And your enemies have lost.

Will GMA be standing after the smoke clears? Then, and only then, will we know the score. At this moment, she’s still standing – and fighting back.

The battle is ongoing. But I noticed the banner headline yesterday in another newspaper. It declared: "Odds Favor GMA Survival." Okay, it was the Sunday edition of the Philippine Daily Inquirer which daily bashes La Gloria mercilessly, and even gleefully. The subhead went even further: "US Bank Says She’s Tougher than Opposition Expected."

Guess there’s no need for further comment.

* * *

It’s obvious GMA has gone on a media blitz. From a period of reticence, she’s launched herself on a virtual talkathon, granting broadcast interviews right and left. It’s good for the media to have a suddenly accessible President. La Glorietta’s problem though, and she’s still on the razor’s edge, is how to discern whether she’s swung from talking too little to the dangerous extreme of talking too much.

Even the return of the First Gent, Mike Arroyo – understandably for the funeral of his half-sister, Rosario Tuason Matute-Llora who died, age 71 – risks Big Mike becoming a serious target of opportunity. While he fretted abroad while in "voluntary exile" (so-called), he was spared – and best of all, GMA was spared – being the focus of the typhoon. Now that he’s back, it takes no seer to predict that the opposition’s gunsights will be centered on him (not to mention the "scandal" and jueteng hunters). Does he have a ticket on the next plane out?

Better to be bored to death abroad, than to be riddled to distraction by potshots, subpoenas, and allegations here at home, in which the real casualty will be La Presidenta, not a mere victim of collateral damage. What was it the Chief Executive once said? "I am married to the country."

The old adage, if you’ll recall, went, and it proved more than pertinent in the past two weeks: "Out of sight, out of mind." Now, the First Gent is back – and he’s too big to keep out of sight.

* * *

I had a long lunch recently with my old friend, John Stuermer, the author of the US investment bank report (Bear Stearns & Co., Inc.) which the PDI quoted as stating there is a 50-60 percent probability that Ms. Arroyo would last until the end of her term in 2010, a slim 23-35 percent chance that she would be given a "graceful exit" via charter change, and just a 15-20 percent likelihood she would be impeached by Congress.

Given a "decision" by the military and the Church to stay neutral, Stuermer’s report added, GMA’s removal from office by a people power uprising, could be ruled out.

Stuermer, while based abroad, spends much time in Manila and has been analyzing the Philippine scene for overseas investors and foreign portfolio managers for the past few years (another field of expertise of his is Japan). When I discussed the situation with him, I’m sure he had already written his July 22 report, and was only checking out his "conclusions" and assessments.

In any event, Stuermer’s thoughtful report, including his reminder that "(GMA) did not carry the capital region in last year’s election and is no more popular than George W. Bush is in New York City" is not just amusing, but useful. He opines that "she is much more popular in the provinces and this support may be rising as a result of a backlash against what is perceived as the arrogance of ‘imperial Manila’ in the provinces. The more Manila-based newspapers criticize her and Manila-based politicians call for her resignation, the better the president’s support in the provinces." That what the Bear Stearns report said.

* * *

The rising cost of gasoline and diesel at the corner fuel pump, and the soaring cost of fuel overall, and how to cope with it is the real challenge facing the administration.

Our country, in the meantime, seems to be in a state of suspended animation while we engage in political mudfights and power-games.

What GMA must do if she is to survive and even overcome, is regain the momentum. What about opening NAIA-3, the new international airport terminal as soon as possible – not just ASAP, in fact, but within a month or two, and damn the torpedos or the attempts of PIATCO to torpedo it? The trouble is that the NAIA-3 project was being handled by former Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima, the "leader" of the Cabinet defectors. The fact that it went nowhere speaks volumes about Purisima’s ability – or lack of it.

Get that NAIA-3 going, GMA. Not in five months but in five weeks, if possible. Then the world will know, even the critical Germans, that the Philippines means business, and even Fraport AG will eventually be "paid."

Action speaks louder than words. Inaction means failure.