Digging in

She’s digging in, and she’s determined to forge ahead with her reform agenda.

That’s the gist of the State of the Nation Address (SONA). It will be delivered as scheduled, and it will be applauded by the allies of President Arroyo.

The question is whether she can pull off crucial reforms. She will remain in office, but can she govern?

Until yesterday the SONA was still being tweaked so President Arroyo would come off looking firmly in control without appearing belligerent and ready to impose martial law. Expect her to continue making revisions in her speech up to the last minute, when she is welcomed to the joint opening of Congress by Senate President Franklin Drilon and Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr.

Drilon has promised to give the President a civil welcome (a beso-beso may be too much to expect) since he says it is his "constitutional duty." And he probably does not want to give senators an excuse to say that he should be replaced as Senate chief if he abdicates his duty of jointly presiding at the opening of the second session of the 13th Congress.

The diplomatic corps including the top US diplomat in the country will also be present, even if it’s not a constitutional duty. It’s a show of support not necessarily for the beleaguered President but for democracy in action and for constitutional processes as a way out of the current crisis.

Over a thousand local and foreign journalists are expected to descend on the Batasang Pambansa complex to cover what anti-administration forces see as the swan song of President Arroyo.

A walkout by some congressmen may look good on CNN, but it will be so much better for the nation if the majority of lawmakers stay glued to their seats throughout the SONA and show the world that occasionally Filipinos can behave like educated adults.

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The SONA will drive market trends tomorrow, but the people’s response to the speech will determine the direction the nation will take in the months ahead. No matter how determined the President comes off in her speech, she needs the support of lawmakers and the public to implement reforms. And those lawmakers and the public have yet to show the world that Philippine democracy is on the road to maturity.

Much will depend on the behavior of the opposition. So far there have been encouraging signs at the House of Representatives that more responsible opposition members will prevail over their infantile colleagues.

There have also been encouraging signs from the people, who this time don’t want to be stampeded into yet another quick fix whose consequences will be regretted for the next two decades.

There are also encouraging signs from the military, where the fate of the Oakwood mutineers must have become a strong disincentive for adventurism.

It is dawning on our weary, despairing nation that if the latest political crisis is resolved in the usual rash, slaphappy Pinoy way, our descent to hell will be unstoppable.

A foreigner who was also here during the Marcos regime says many Filipinos are still strutting around as if it was still 1965, when the Philippines was at the top of the heap among Asian economies.

What a difference four decades makes in the life of a nation. Our neighbors wasted no time racing toward progress. We, on the other hand, wasted all our opportunities.

Our neighbors took different routes to development: democracy, the so-called Asian way of benevolent authoritarianism, communism that mutated into hybrid capitalism.

We’ve tried everything: dictatorship, people power, democracy. Didn’t work, and nothing still works.

Now we’re trying to make the mangled system work, amid the usual shrill, impatient heckling from those who see another short cut to power.

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Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has always been blessed with weak enemies. The political opposition remains hopelessly divided, no matter how high the pile of press statements trumpeting a united opposition.

One interview with most of those demanding her resignation pronto and you know an alternative program of government is the least of their concerns, and all they want is to install themselves, their relatives or dummies in power.

One chat with some toothless participant in one of those anti-Arroyo rallies and you know he’s just there to enjoy the sexy dancers in exchange for shouting, "GMA resign!" Ask him why and he’ll give you a look that says, "You mean there’s a why?"

One look at those characters wanting to set up a transition government or whatever euphemism they want to call a junta and you’re spooked. One look at Fortunato Abat and you wonder if you’re watching the cartoon channel or a rerun of Grumpy Old Men.

Still, that fragmented opposition might yet get its wish to bring down a president. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, blessed with so much in life, brought her troubles upon herself.

Now, on her fifth SONA, she can map out a blueprint for bringing the nation out of this mess, but her troubles have greatly weakened her capability to follow that blueprint.

Her leadership has always been shaky enough due to the way she was installed in power in January 2001 and her seeming perception that her political survival depends on political accommodation. Now her fate is in the hands of the House of Representatives, and if she is impeached, the Senate.

No matter how hard her administration tries to project an image of business as usual, the nation is distracted. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s crisis of legitimacy must be settled quickly, credibly and within the bounds of constitutional processes if the nation is to move forward.