Rebound

I have been monitoring the chatter in the various e-groups of "civil society" groups. Most of these e-groups had supported the failed July 8 effort by the so-called "middle forces" to induce the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Through last week, most of the discussants in these e-groups concede that the effort suffered a "strategic setback." The President, they concede, not only survived the concerted assault mounted that dark Friday. She has rebounded strongly.

At the most critical moment, the President received strong support from a factor completely overlooked by those involved in the concerted push of July 8: the largest political party in the land. The Lakas-NUCD mobilized local executives to provide a besieged presidency strong reinforcement.

With the Catholic bishops opting to stay out of the arena where politicians play their destructive games and with the military reiterating its obedience to the constitutional authority, political party support became more salient during a moment when the edifice seemed to teeter.

Day after day through the week, a steady stream of political leaders appeared at the Palace to affirm their support to their President. Political leaders in the Visayas and Mindanao convened to threaten conspirators of national fragmentation should their President be deposed. They likewise supported moves for charter change and a shift to a federal form of government.

By Saturday, the rally of support for the President was brought to a crescendo with a large demonstration at the Luneta. Pains were taken to tone down the partisan content of that demonstration, broadening its appeal by calling for peace, unity and the rule of law.

The tone of that demonstration was carefully calibrated, reflecting the general tone of the President’s public relations offensive: no name-calling, no partisan recrimination. That was smart strategy. It ensured the broadest possible appeal and avoided aggravating the tensions.

The objective of this whole effort is to raise the quality of the political debate and eventually lift the President to the upper stratum of statesmanship, putting her above the petty emotionalism that was in abundance the preceding weeks. Her addresses demonstrated firmness and, at a key point, derided the opposition for having no alternative to offer.

By contrast, the groups demanding the President’s resignation did everything wrong.

The anti-climactic Makati rally last Wednesday was preceded by delusory spiels that a million people would materialize. The gathering was billed as the decisive moment when regime change would happen. When only 40,000 people materialized – half of them communists – the rally was deemed a flop. It was the peso and the stock market that rallied the next day instead.

The high point of that pathetically anti-climactic affair was supposed to be the speech of Susan Roces. Even that speech turned out to be a dud. No call to action was issued. The crowd was simply advised to obey the Ten Commandments.

It did not help that the stage, which was the centerpiece of the rally, was controlled by personalities from the low-end entertainment industry. They elbowed out the agitprop mouthpieces of the leftists and wow the crowd with energetic performances by the Sex Bomb dancers.

The leftist groups, for their part, were too obsessed with finally having their own Edsa-type uprising that they were willing to bed with rascals, plunderers and reactionaries. The consequence was absolute political embarrassment. Not only did the leftist groups allow themselves to merely supply warm bodies for a rally whose tone and content they did not control, they had to endure Richard Gomez’s impoverished poetry reading.

After Susan Roces delivered her non-speech, the microphone somehow got passed to former UP president Francisco Nemenzo. In his own funny way, Nemenzo began rambling about installing a "revolutionary transition government" – as if determined to scare away support from that whole enterprise. After a few tense minutes, the stagehands grabbed the microphone from him to page for the parents of a lost child. From that moment on, the rally just fizzled out under the sheer weight of its own incoherence.

In deep despair, the leftist groups tried to compensate for their dwindling support by engaging in more aggressive activities. A mob of leftists invaded the Department of Agriculture last Friday, destroying public property and insulting the Republic. That is precisely the sort of debasing tactics guaranteed to alienate the ordinary citizens.

Unable to comprehend that whatever they touch turns to mud, the leftist just would not stop damaging their cause. Last weekend, something called the Partido Marxista-Leninista engineered a television appearance, threatening to assassinate the President and the Vice-President at around the time when the State of the Nation Address is due to be delivered.

Defeat has a way of encouraging the losers to keep on shooting at their own feet. Over the next few days, we are likely to be treated to more outrageous stunts by the groups that rose to call for the President’s resignation only to retreat in disarray. These include, according to the rumor mill, a walkout by opposition legislators during the President’s address next Monday.

Against the disconcertingly negative tone of the opposition, the pro-administration effort simply concentrates on maintaining the high ground in civility, statesmanship and political debate. Constitutionalism, due process and the rule of law are strong ramparts that will protect the duly-constituted authority from the mobs.

The biggest error of those who sought to oust the administration by sheer agitation and disinformation is that they tried to do so much political damage with extremely superficial issues. To achieve anything, they needed to stir up public emotions and rush the ramparts quickly.

Time was of the essence in this strategy. Time, too, was the antidote to this stupid strategy. All the administration had to do was ride out a vicious and hysterical offensive.

How quickly the tide of battle turned. The initiative has now passed very clearly to the side of the administration.

Having demonstrated control, the administration must now demonstrate firmness in dealing malevolent characters orchestrating this highly contrived "crisis." Having taken the high ground in the political debate, the administration must now demonstrate resolve in strengthening our institutions.