What a Bush victory means to us

Because of the Iraq War, the recent elections in the US had the highest voter turnout since 1968. The last time such a large turnout happened was during the Vietnam War. The way I look at it, Osama Bin Laden’s last videotape actually helped Bush’s campaign in the final stretch. While Bush’s message on moral issues carried the day, the underlying issue that concerned Americans was security from terrorism. Because of this concern, majority of Americans felt that moral values had to return to their lives. It is a natural human instinct for people under attack and in fear to return to spiritual fundamentals and to stay with the known – And that was the effective message that Bush got across to the American people. Historically, Americans don’t want to change leaders during wartime. Strategist Karl Rove played on this psychological insight which prompted Bush to commend him as the "Architect" of his victory.

In spite of the overwhelming international dislike for Bush, Americans believed that the straight-talking and quick-drawing cowboy was the right wartime President. They see him as decisive and consistent but fortunately or unfortunately, Bush is a true Texan whose philosophy is "Somos o no somos." He remembers who his enemies and who his real friends are. His world is defined by the "Are you with us or against us?" mentality of a Cowboy Sheriff who values friendships and allies in a dangerous world.

Right after the 911 attack, GMA was the third leader to call Bush. This played very well with Bush, whom aides describe as an emotional man. Bush is a confident man who is close to the strong women in his personal and official families. This comes from the stern upbringing he got from his mother Barbara, who had to take care of the Bush boys while George, Sr. was busy making a political name for himself. Knowing this, GMA can come in to use her feminine instincts to mend fences and redevelop the relationship they had right after 911 in spite of the recent diplomatic snafu. In Chile late this month, she should make every effort to get to talk to him even informally without a bilateral meeting. With the global war against terrorism expected to retain its priority in Bush’s second term, the Philippines will continue to play a key role in America’s regional military strategy.

US foreign policy groups and think tanks formed a general consensus that the Bush victory will be positive for the Philippines. Hudson Institute member Enders Wimbush, who comes to the Philippines often, sensed that the relationship with the Philippines is so important and so solid that President Bush will make it a high priority. It’s very clear to him that George W. Bush is going to have to spend a lot more time focused on Asia, particularly in creating a new security architecture for Asia, and most definitely the Philippines will play a prominent role. In addition, the Heritage Foundation’s Dana Dillon said that Bush has more experienced and knowledgeable advisers about the issues between the Philippines and the US, which would be a big plus for Manila. Finally, Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council Al Santoli stated plainly that "Bush is absolutely going to be good for the Philippines." He explained that close personal ties between Arroyo and Bush would mean better communication between both countries.

The way I see it, the Bush people have gotten over their disappointment with the premature pullout of Philippine troops and they see the continuing partnership with Manila as crucial to preventing Islamic extremists from taking root in the Philippines. Time and again, White House insiders have described Bush as having a soft spot for Filipinos. There are several Filipino-Americans working in the White House in various capacities from valets, to assistant chef Chis Comerford, to Susan Ralston, who is the highest ranking Filipino-American in the White House. She is the executive assistant to Bush senior adviser Karl Rove. Needless to say, the three million Filipino Americans living in the US is a fairly large ethnic group that cannot be politically ignored. Bush will not forget that most of them voted for him. We must build around that.

The bottom line, though, is that the Bush Administration’s main interest in the Philippines is to reform the military. They are advocating for deep AFP structural reforms because at the end of the day they are protecting themselves and making sure that the US military assistance will be used properly. The Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) is also crucial for them for their new global defense posture. The War on Terror will be a Bush priority in Asia. He wants the Philippines to be at the forefront because it is right in the center of the US supply and logistical lines. This is where we come in strongly knowing fully well that the Americans need us for our strategic location. We also have to factor in the transnational threat of drugs that plague both the Philippines and the United States. It is expected that the US will assist in reforming the PNP in order to increase its capability in checking the drug menace and other transnational crimes.

The other positive effect is in the economic realm. The business-oriented Bush will certainly want more business activities in the Asia-Pacific region. Bush and the people around him don’t mind building up the economies of other countries to strengthen them. As a matter of fact, some Bush supporters have been in and out of the country looking for potential joint ventures and partnerships in the energy sector. Bush’s victory means the US will vigorously try to make countries like the Philippines politically and economically stable because it is much cheaper for them to do so this way rather than send US troops in the end to protect its economic and security interests.

It is now important for GMA to reestablish her personal relationship with George W. This is a relationship that has worked very well for the Philippines for the past three years. And as I’ve said consistently, it is an inescapable fact that four more years of Bush will be ultimately good for this country.

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