GMA may begin naming her Cabinet choices this weekend(perhaps even tomorrow)

It’s unsafe to predict anything, I know. But Alikabok swears La Presidenta is ready – with two exceptions – to "complete" the line-up of her "new" Cabinet.

Well, I got your attention, anyway. When will La Emperadora speak, ending the suspense and the nail-biting on the part of the suspected Coming and Going? Tomorrow? Friday? Perhaps to coincide this Friday, the 13th (!), with the opening of the Olympic Games in Athens.

Another straw in the wind is that GMA is planning to go to Saudia Arabia – on a state visit, and specifically to visit our 900,000 OFWs over there. But not soon, possibly in October or November when the temperature is cooler. Right now, in that vast desert Kingdom, temperatures are possibly going up past 45 to 50 degrees Centigrade. You’ve got to experience it to believe it.

And, besides, nearby Baghdad’s burning – with bombs and sabotage. The Shi’ite militiamen of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr are battling the US and Coalition military (including the Brits) from Sadr city to the "holy city" of Najaf, and cursing the government of interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who’s re-installed the death penalty for murder, gun-running, kidnapping and hijacking, and shut down the Baghdad Bureau of the Qatar-based Arabic Television network al-Jazeera for allegedly fomenting trouble.

Well, if the Shias – or a noisy minority of them – are in violent rebellion, is it possible that next-door Iran, the Shia power in the region, might be "in the game"? Those ambitious Ayatollahs from Om, etc., are not to be discounted.

Why should we, so far away from the action, be concerned about what happens in Iraq, in nearby Saudi, and the neighboring oil-producing countries? The violence in Iraq has already resulted in oil production there being shut down – temporarily. We hope. This is because sabotage has escalated against the pipelines bearing oil to port destinations, especially the pipelines from the northern Kirkuk fields which used to pump 750,000 barrels per day to Turkey’s Mediterranean port in Ceyhan before the Iraq invasion. Saboteurs have also blown up pipelines in the south.

World oil prices, reacting immediately, have skyrocketed by over a dollar per barrel, to $45 plus.

Iraq’s not the only problem. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Country (OPEC) is already producing 30 million bpd, a 25-year high, and, despite Saudi Arabia’s assurances, can’t up this level of pumping much higher in the very near future.

As for Venezuela in South America, Sus – the political showdown there isn’t going to help its oil output. This is now the volatile Middle Eastern situation and even in South America, another "source," impacts at your corner gas pump, or affects your diesel.

Transportation and jeepney strikes, all our weeping and wailing indignant diatribes by self-styled Consumer Defenders who’re now ranting and raving on local TV, won’t "produce" more oil, nor keep prices down, nor – most foolishly of all – "force" them to go down. Everybody is going to have a bad time. And in a bankrupt nation, with a burgeoning population, the problem is even worse compounded.

What shall we do? Do our best. That’s the Pinoy way. If we stand fast, and we stand together, we’ll make it.

* * *

Labor Secretary Patricia Sto. Tomas visited our Tuesday Club yesterday morning to exchange views with our group on the labor and employment situation. In the course of our free-wheeling discussion, the DOLE Secretary said that the "prohibition" on our Filipino truck drivers, going into Iraq, ferrying oil and supplies from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other neighboring countries, is still in force – but admitted it is difficult, if not impossible to enforce it.

Most of our truck drivers, however, are observing the "ban", since it has proven extremely dangerous to drive trucks, oil tankers, and other supply vehicles into Iraq’s war-torn areas and such convoys are targeted for ambush by insurgents. Thousands of trucks are now "stuck" outside the Iraqi border, Pat said she had been informed, because truck drivers from other countries are reluctant to man those vehicles and bring them across the frontier into Iraq. Their reason: "If the Filipinos, who’ll do anything, and undertake even the most dangerous assignments for a salary bonus or hazard pay, don’t want to drive into Iraq anymore, then it’s too perilous for them (the other drivers), too." That’s their assessment.

As for the hiring and recruitment of job applicants for work inside Iraq, on the other hand, as soon as there’s a lull in the violence, it’s possible our government may reconsider its position.

Right now, the 4,000 OFWs working there are comparatively "safe" (but nobody’s completely safe) since they work inside security-guarded camps or military camps. DOLE Secretary Sto. Tomas revealed, though, that our OFWs don’t come and go to their camps of employment by road – they’re flown in and out, "by air". There are about eight camps with OFWs employed in them.

That’s now things are on the ground there, Pat noted, but suggested we check with Ambassador (General) Roy Cimatu, who knows better. He’s just returned from the Middle East, where he’s been meeting with employers and our OFWs.

* * *

Secretary Sto. Tomas says that our eight million OFWs continue to pump money into our economy – and are in great demand everywhere, not just in the Middle East. We have 2.3 million gainfully employed in the United States, for instance, plus 600,000 more "undocumented".

We have 40,000 in South Korea – but there are even more Koreans here (it was disclosed during our Club’s give-and-take) – no less than 100,000. We have 85,000 OFWs in Japan – about 40,000 of them "entertainers".

Our nurses are in "growing demand" (which worries me since our hospitals are being . . . well, "decimated" of trained and experienced staff). Saudi Arabia and other Mideast countries are recruiting more, since European countries have begun plucking Filipino nurses out of their hospitals there for employment in Europe. For starters, there are now some 40,000 Filipino nurses in Britain. Ireland used to "export" Irish nurses to the US and Western Europe. Now, it’s going the opposite way: 3,000 Filipino nurses have just been "imported" by Dublin, and recruitment is still ongoing. We have something like 55,000 nurses staffing hospitals and working overseas.

Before it’s too late, we’ll have to address the "nurse drain", if you ask me.

We can’t blame them, of course, for seeking greener pastures – and better-paid employment and other benefits.

Abroad, nurses can earn much more than Cabinet members, Pat wryly quipped. "We get P41,000 per month."

* * *

Our unemployment situation remains serious, of course. The DOLE Secretary says it’s 13.7 percent or about 4.4 million persons, and 30 people a day – as an offshoot of economic problems and production downturns – are losing their jobs. More than 1.1 million jobs per year must be generated, it was observed. At least 750,000 Filipinos, for that matter, join the "workforce" or the unemployment lists.

Sto. Tomas, on the other hand, was happy to report that things are relatively tranquil on the labor front, since most workers understand the situation. There are currently an average of 30 strikes per year, while during the Cory administration, during the incumbency of the late Labor Secretary Augusto "Bobit" Sanchez, there were no less than 586 strikes per year.

To this remark, everybody at the table chorused: "That’s because Bobit Sanchez told the workers to go on strike."

I recall his first speech (to the KMU, I believe) when he became labor minister. "The best way," Bobit allegedly said, "to tell your employers what you want is to go on strike" – or words to that effect. By golly. That’s what they did.

In the present crisis situation, a wave of strikes or violent mass action would be disastrous – to employers, to the government – but most of all, the workers and employees themselves.

Remember the classic quote from the great nationalist and Senator, Don Claro M. Recto? "If we don’t hang together, we’ll all hang separately."

Don Claro never claimed this was an original thought of his, but it sums up our dilemma perfectly.

* * *

The President has begun cutting up the responsibilities and "powers" of Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority Chair and Administrator, Felicito "Tong" Payumo. Too many wannabes with big connections covet his job so I hope clipping his functions is not a prelude to junking Payumo altogether. This would be sad, because Payumo has been a very successful SBMA boss, whatever his detractors may cry.

The gossip mill has been abuzz that Tong could be replaced by Freddie Antonio. Earlier, the post was offered to a retired Ayala Land executive, who demurred, perhaps because he didn’t want a fulltime job, nor be forced to cope with the aggravations assailing anyone who holds the SBMA Chairmanship and administration.

I know that our friend, Senator (and former Tourism Secretary) Dick Gordon – who’s very influential with La Emperadora – and his group in Olongapo and in the province of Zambales detest Payumo.

Despite opposition from them, though, Payumo successfully funded, bid out and awarded the contract to build the essential Container Port needed for the vital Subic-Clark Corridor project. Construction is on schedule and at a cost which is 25 percent lower than Agency estimate, thus saving our government P1.7 billion. To her credit, GMA backed up Payumo in this undertaking.

Earlier, Payumo also completed the World Bank-funded Rizal-Argonaut-Maritan Highway which connects the port to the projected Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expessway, at a cost of only P533 million, as compared to the fantastically-high-priced Agency Estimate of P750 million.

SBMA’s privatization of its power distribution resulted in a 40 percent drop in its distribution cost which shall remain frozen for the next five years. The zone is now supplying one of the lowest electricity rates among Economic Zones and Industrial parks in the country!

Moreover, under Payumo, SBMA received an ISO 9001-2000 certificates for quality management systems on investor servicing and locator assistance.

The Subic Bay Freeport is now host to 996 companies with total actual and committed investments of $4.136 billion. It has doubled its exports to more than $1 billion and its workforce to 55,000 workers, excluding SBMA employees, from 7,756 workers six years ago.

SBMA is not responsible for the collection of Customs duties and taxes, but the increased commerce in the Freeport has boosted collections from P2.8 billion in 1998 to P3.3 billion in 2003. Combined BIR and Customs collections todate have totaled P26.6 billion or 30 times the equity contribution of the National Government to the SBMA.

Given this performance, plus the need for continuity in pushing the Subic-Clark corridor, there should be no problem then about Tong Payumo’s staying. Alas, Senator Dick Gordon who is still smarting from the defeat of his wife, ex-Mayor Kate Gordon, in the last congressional elections (she lost in all barangays in Olongapo City to Congresswoman Mitos Magsaysay) and his poor performance in Zambales and Bataan, is putting pressure on GMA to replace Payumo, his bitter enemy Tong having been an Estrada appointee also does not help. But if GMA would like to show sincerity in her call for a government of unity, she should retain good performers regardless of whether he was appointed by Estrada or by herself.