GMA won in fewer areas

If a Philippine map were to be colored red for provinces and cities where Fernando Poe Jr. won, and blue for Gloria Arroyo, it would look on fire. The administration K-4’s own tally of certificates of canvass shows that Poe bagged more of the 171 provinces and cities than Arroyo did.

But that’s only half the story. The presidential election is not by city or province, but by individual voter. In which case, bailiwicks and voting population matter. From that standpoint, it would appear that although Arroyo won in fewer locales, she won them big. Conversely, Poe won slim in more of them. The margins in their respective top 20 provinces and cities tell the full story:

ARROYO

POE

Locale	Margin	Locale	Margin
1. Cebu	842,531	Nueva Ecija	315,782
2. Pampanga	557,992	Laguna	282,290
3. Iloilo	430,568	Bulacan	203,406
4. Bohol	242,956	Rizal	186,347
5.Negros Occ	195,285	Quezon	165,635
6. Maguindanao	163,546	Palawan	130,893
7. Cebu City	161,469	Batangas	113,908
8. Negros Or.	140,703	La Union	112,513
9. Zambo Sur	106,566	Bataan	105,115
10. Zambo Norte	99,845	South Cotabato	96,285
11. Albay	97,868	Manila	95,476
12. Southern Leyte	96,958	Isabela	88,215
13. Leyte	81,884	Western Samar	83,220
14. Agusan Norte	72,277	Misamis Oriental	68,722
15. Iloilo City	70,346	Northern Samar	65,130
16. Ilocos Sur	64,696	Ilocos Norte	62,207
17. Capiz	63,809	Cavite	56,030
18. Misamis Occ.	55,819	Caloocan City	55,221
19. Bacolod City	54,668	Mindoro Occidental	44,401
20. Surigao Norte	53,546	Mindoro Oriental	42,567

Total

3,653,332

2,373,363

What Congress is canvassing should be the same figures of Arroyo’s K-4 and KNP. The COCs come in six carbonized copies. The original is for Congress. The fourth copy went to K-4, the dominant administration coalition; the fifth, to KNP, the dominant opposition. The sixth copy is for Namfrel, with which to reconcile provincial and city totals with 216,382 precinct returns. Any deviation of COC copies would mean that cheating occurred from precinct counts to the local canvassings, or the transmittal of COC copies to the designated recipients.

From the totals in their respective top 20 locales, Arroyo’s margin over Poe is 1,279,969 votes. The figures come from K-4 campaign manager Gabriel Claudio, who ran his own tally last week based on 95 percent of COCs that the coalition secured.

Taking only the top 10 provinces and cities, Arroyo’s total is 2,941,461; Poe, 1,712,174. Arroyo’s margin is 1,229,287, Claudio points out.

Claudio can’t help but crow. Taking only Arroyo’s top 3 locales (Cebu, Pampanga, Iloilo) against Poe’s top 10, her total is 1,831,091 over his 1,712,174. Arroyo’s margin is 59,515.

From the K-4 tally, Speaker Jose de Venecia reveals that Arroyo won by a total margin of 900,000 votes, and expects 300,000 more from locales where the coalition has yet to get its COC copies. Sen. Aquilino Pimentel claims that Poe won by 550,000 in the KNP’s own tally of COCs, but has yet to show the details. They can’t be both right. Only the Congress official count will say for sure.

In batting for the first fare increase in three-and-a-half years, in the wake of six fuel price surges this year alone, Transportation Sec. Leandro Mendoza recounts his own experience. A young police lieutenant in the ‘70s, he moonlighted as a jeepney driver to augment his meager pay. "It was tough," he sighs. "My pals would ply the routes for 12 hours each day. There were mornings when they’d wake up too bone-tires to drive. But they had to work; their families depended on the hand-to-mouth income."

It’s tougher today. While drivers used to net P300-P350 a day, the series of fuel price spikes has whittled it down to P120-P150. Instead of filling up, they’d buy fuel only by the liter to stretch every centavo. Some would tell their wives to wait by the corner at mid-morning as they drive by, hand over P50 for the kids’ lunch, then drive on till right.

Malacañang had staved off a fare hike since 2001 for commuters. But alternatives it gave to drivers were only eroded by the boundary system.

Under the system, the operator lets a driver take out the jeepney for a daily fee of P550-850. The operator handles periodic maintenance; the driver takes care of diesel and oil, accessories like batteries and tires, minor repairs, and washup at day’s end. Fuel eats up a third of drivers and conductors, who earn commissions from ticket sales.

Malacañang had abolished import duties on jeepney parts to bring down maintenance and repair costs. But it benefited mostly the operators. Oil firms were also asked to sell diesel at discounted rates in selected filling stations, with the differential passed on to the price of gas. But these were few and far between. Besides, only Luzon jeepneys use diesel; on the Visayas and Mindanao, Multicabs run on gas. A fare hike was inevitable.

Government is set to grant more than what drivers are pleading for. Instead of P1.50 additional for the first five kms for jeepneys, the increase would be for the first four; P2 for buses. Instead of 20¢ for each succeeding km, it would be P1. For good measure, President Arroyo ordered a week’s delay in implementation – so her men can insert a proviso that only drivers and conductors, not operators, would benefit from the fare hike.

Fair enough.