It ain’t over till the fat lady sings

There’s an old saying, "It ain’t over till the fat lady sings." The phrase reminds people that it’s the final result that matters, often in a spirit of reassurance to the supporters of the losing team. San Antonio Texas TV sports editor Dan Cook coined it in the mid-70s. The phrase actually means that the outcome of any contest obviously isn’t known until the final results are in. But in the case of this bruising presidential campaign, it looks like the Fat Lady is ready to sing. And by the way, The Fat Lady is by no means in reference to GMA who has kept herself trim mainly because of the grueling pace of the campaign. I’m also told that her badminton crony, Cynthia Carreon,seems to be doing a good job at keeping GMA fit.

The bandwagon seems to indicate that it is going towards GMA’s way showing survey results breaking the statistical deadlock with two percentage points over FPJ. This is the first time GMA has pulled ahead of FPJ since February. GMA’s lucky star seems to be favoring her because of the confluence of events – mainly the "fear factor" of an FPJ presidency and the almost certain withdrawal of Roco. Even if Roco is on a two-week medical leave, for all intents and purposes, he is already out of the race. He is just too far behind to catch up. As the campaign reaches the closing rounds, GMA’s support is steadily climbing while FPJ’s campaign seems to be losing its momentum with his Luzon bailiwick steadily getting eroded. This could very well be the clincher. The business community was in total agreement with Pulse Asia’s latest survey. Jitters over election uncertainties seem to be fading because the dollar is losing ground and the peso recovered. In addition, dollar remittances that were put on hold are now beginning to trickle in. The peso traded at P55.49 to the dollar last Tuesday after trading at P56.14 the day before. And that looks like another indication that the "Fat Lady" is about to sing.

The latest developments were a rude Easter awakening for FPJ’s handlers, who just completed a Lenten reexamination of their campaign. It came at a time when FPJ’s machinery was in disarray, too many factions, and no coherent platform compounded by money woes. To aggravate matters, 11 staff members of the KNP’s media bureau resigned 3 days ago. Reports tell us that after Rod Reyes wanted to resign from the FPJ media bureau, Administration political operatives started to work on the defection of FPJ’s media bureau staff. It was also reported that Rod Reyes was offered P5-M to do the same. The recent resignation of the media bureau staff members seems to have been a well-planned and calibrated event primed to take effect after the latest survey.

FPJ’s handlers were relying completely on the invincibility of his popularity without a real machinery. In fact, one of his handlers was quoted as telling local officials, "You need us more than we need you." Now, that arrogant comment has caused them a lot of desertion from local grassroots leaders, which reverberated all over the country. Unless something dramatic happens, it looks like it is GMA’s ballgame. It may be over even before May 10. Dramatic events must take place and by this we mean FPJ’s appearing on nationwide television and be ready to be convincing enough to articulate his platform. Either that or he announces a unified opposition with Ping Lacson or both. There is even talk within the opposition camps that perhaps it would be better if Ping Lacson becomes the standard-bearer and FPJ slides down to becoming the vice presidential candidate. A lot of gung-ho FPJ supporters are beginning to have second thoughts about his ability to lead. They think that he is held captive by his close advisers. While Lacson has a very strong platform that has gained a lot of support from the young and the middle class. This last-minute dramatic adjustment could perhaps be the only way the opposition could blunt the growing GMA avalanche. Time, however, is running out. There are exactly 22 days left before election day. While Erap was kept out of the picture, now they need him more than ever to broker this union. We are told that his birthday wish is for the candidates to unify. If this does not happen soon, they might as well throw in the towel. Our thesis is clear- the opposition needs an insurance premium of 5 million votes to claim victory while GMA only needs an insurance premium of 1 to 2 million votes. It is obvious why the opposition needs that kind of margin. And by the way, COMELEC Chair Abalos claimed that there are 42.8 million registered voters in last Friday’s IMPACT program. Now that is really a revelation!

GMA political strategists Gabby Claudio and Mike Defensor hatched the campaign roadmap. In the first phase of the campaign, Lakas concentrated on attracting the pro-Roco voters back to the fold and on consolidating the local candidates of the coalition to support the national ticket. In the second phase, Roco’s effort had been marginalized and GMA has established her candidacy as the mainstream political group. The third and final phase of the campaign, which began after Holy Week, will see Lakas focus on breaking up the voting base of FPJ. A lot more defections in favor of the Administration are expected in the next two weeks creating a real bandwagon effect.

A slight margin will give GMA the lease to Malacañang for another 6 years. She is still working with all pistons firing. With all the resources behind her, there seems to be no stopping her reelection. While FPJ and his camp are almost in total disarray with no clear strategy, they continue to depend entirely on his popularity. For awhile, even I thought his popularity was invincible. But the signs of vulnerability are there and GMA’s hardwork and her energetic sorties are beginning to bear fruit. She now only has to keep her cool while allowing her handlers to goad FPJ into losing his temper. To illustrate the changing mood of his followers, I asked our office tailor – one of FPJ’s ardent supporters – whether he was still for FPJ. He replied that FPJ seems to lose his temper too quickly and that people don’t seem to be too clear on what he plans to do for them if he wins. With the help of her media machine, the unrelenting delivery of GMA’s messages is beginning to set in the consciousness of the masses.

In hindsight, FPJ’s entry actually helped GMA because fearing an FPJ presidency many people rallied behind her. It looks like the 2004 campaign was still influenced by the A, B, & C classes with media obviously playing a major role. This however can’t last. The continuing growth of population and poverty aggravated by less education will ultimately catch up. Unless we change this system, popularity will still be the major factor in any election. But for now, influencing public perception is still possible. Because all indications are the "Fat Lady" is just about ready to sing.

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