Benefitting from Roco’s absence

Raul Roco’s announcement yesterday came as a real shock and grief among Gloria Arroyo’s strategists. He may have split from them to run as a "third force" for president. But he remains their friend. The warrior bond forged in their bitter fight against Ferdinand Marcos and Joseph Estrada at EDSA-1 and -2 is too strong for pesky politics to rip. That Roco would now take a sudden leave from the campaign, for rush medical treatment in the US, thus hit them with deep concern for his health. More so since the news was about "an undisclosed debilitating illness," and the absence would be for at least 30 days when election day is just 27 days away. Early afternoon a worried President Arroyo was aching to see Roco, her former education secretary and compadre in countless weddings, before his evening flight.

At the divided opposition camps of Fernando Poe Jr. and Panfilo Lacson, reaction was mixed. For the former, it’s but a cover for Roco’s graceful withdrawal from the race. For the latter, it’s an opportunity.

Poe and Lacson have been in on-and-off talks for unification – so far all in vain. Only last Easter they met a third time, reportedly on prodding of Iglesia ni Cristo church leaders. Again no dice. Lacson wants Poe to slide down as his vice presidential running mate. But the idea sounds outlandish. Poe has led most surveys neck-and-neck with Arroyo at 31 percent, and possesses popularity to give the incumbent a run for her money. Lacson’s standing has not moved from far fourth at 10-12 percent, and he has yet to prove capability to overtake Roco’s 15-18 percent. But his support base, like Roco’s, is the broad middle class. He thus views Roco’s leave as a virtual go-signal to raid the latter’s Aksiyon Demokratiko. That could up the ante in future negotiations for Poe to slide down.

Lacson has nothing to lose and everything to gain from raiding Roco’s camp for potential ward leaders – just as he has nothing to lose and everything to gain by running for president. He is an independent and thus is not entitled to copies of precinct tally forms for securing his votes. If he gets Aksiyon Demokratiko on his side, he would gain access to copies of the Comelec-accredited party. If he loses, he will return to the Senate to sit out the last half of his six-year term. Meanwhile, he is staving off criminal charges of multiple murder and kidnapping, from his days as National Police chief, and dismisses all these as political harassment.

Problem is, not all Roco votes are virulently anti-administration that would switch to Lacson if he fails to return by election day. More likely his main backers would jump back to Arroyo’s bandwagon, or join the other candidate who represents a third force: evangelist Eddie Villanueva. Roco had had a bitter falling off with Arroyo, and was once quoted as swearing that, if ever he must withdraw, he would swing his forces in Lacson’s favor. But that could have been out of frustration with his sagging survey ratings than from seething anger. Roco never trusted Lacson. As one of two senators who led the special investigation in 1995 of the Kuratong Baleleng massacre, he had recommended prosecution of Lacson and subordinates for rubbing out robbery suspects.

A Roco withdrawal would be worrisome for Poe. More so with the likelihood of the Aksiyon Demokratiko rejoining Arroyo’s administration coalition. The latest Pulse Asia survey, for March 27-April 4 with a huge sampling of 4,800 respondents, showed Arroyo breaking away from their usual statistical tie. Arroyo notched 34 percent versus Poe’s 31, with an error margin of ±1.4 percentage points. If most of Roco’s 15-18 percent swings to Arroyo, Poe would be crushed. Especially since his ratings have slid from a high of 39 percent to its present standstill.

Poe’s slim chance is for Lacson to back out. An earlier Social Weather Station survey showed that in such event, three of Lacson’s 12 percent would switch to Poe; only 1.4 percent would go for Arroyo. But unification grows dimmer by the day, what with Lacson’s demands. He was reported to have asked for crucial cabinet postings for his factotums in a Poe presidency, plus reimbursement of P100 million spent so far in the campaign. Poe’s own men naturally balked at giving up potential spoils. Besides, they don’t have the cash. Only last Thursday Poe and four top strategists helicoptered to Estrada’s detention quarters in Tanay, Rizal, supposedly to ask for fresh campaign funds.

More than that, Lacson has foisted a new condition for unification. He wants Poe to sack Senators Edgardo Angara and Tito Sotto from the three-party Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino. How Poe can do that while keeping his KNP intact is a poser. Angara, as KNP founder, sits as chairman of its executive committee. As LDP president, he also represents the biggest of the three parties and the only one with incumbent provincial governors. Thirty-six of the LDP’s 38 governing council members backed Angara’s decision to support outsider and newcomer Poe, in lieu of party mate Lacson. Sotto, meanwhile, is Poe’s security blanket in the company of veteran pols with whom he feels ill at ease. A former show biz personality like him, Sotto serves as Poe’s personal campaign manager.

A unified Poe-Lacson force and a withdrawal of Roco would lead to a virtual one-on-one showdown with Arroyo. If that unfolds, the electoral choice would be between moving forward or a restoration of the Marcos and Estrada regimes. It would be interesting to find out which way the political wind would blow.

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