Surveys

In all countries, surveys are avidly watched for what they tell us about public sentiments. But nowhere are they most avidly watched than in this country at a time like this.

In the Philippines, political parties are weak. Politicians change parties like they change their socks. See, for instance, how the opposition LDP is so deeply fractured between those supporting the candidacy of Panfilo Lacson and those endorsing Fernando Poe Jr.

Because our political parties are weak, they do not really select candidates. Candidates select them. All of the major standing parties are residues of strong presidential contenders: the LDP of Ramon Mitra, the Lakas of Fidel Ramos, the PMP of Joseph Estrada and the NPC of Eduardo Cojuangco.

Because our political parties are weak, they do not raise electoral finances for their candidates. Candidates raise finances for the parties.

Which is why our electoral politics are so personality-centered. Popular candidates are the starting point of campaigns. Because of their "winability", they become bankable. What that means is that they have the ability to attract electoral "investors" – people who put money into electoral campaigns in the expectation of recovering their investments later.

The way our electoral campaigns are financed, electoral democracy seems to be a stimulus for corruption. That is a separate matter we can discuss some other time.

I caught Reli German on television the other day. The discussion was on campaign financing – a matter I have tried to study as a political scientist exploring the mysteries of Filipino politics. Reli says that despite his popularity, the 1998 Joseph Estrada campaign spent somewhere in the vicinity of P3 billion.

Reli says that the major 2004 campaigns will require anywhere from P5 billion to P10 billion apiece.

Those are staggering sums being quoted. But I could believe those estimates. Presidential campaigns, due to the weakness of the party system and the poverty in the rural areas, are expected to spend for the campaigns of lesser candidates.

I have doubts, however, if the system is capable of fully financing more than two major candidacies.

The word from the political underworld is that there are very little financial flows moving in the direction of any of the major political camps. Holders of smart money are waiting for the dust to clear before they make contributions of any significance.

This is where the surveys come in.

Surveys become the measure of the "bankability" of the contending candidates. The higher the voter preference rating of a candidate, the greater the possibility that there would be return on the electoral investment.

Because electoral "investors" rely on surveys to make judgments on which candidate to support, they move the money in the direction of the more popular. The cycle of personality politics is deepened.

On the basis of the latest SWS survey, for instance, there will be great likelihood that electoral "investors" will begin writing off the Lacson candidacy and shifting scarce funds in the direction of the Poe candidacy. That will doom the candidacy of Lacson, who lacks Poe’s popularity and will probably require a larger war chest to keep in the contest.

Sure Poe’s preference rating reflects a spike due to the media frenzy over whether he would actually declare or not. In the previous surveys, Poe was running a poor fourth or even fifth in the preference ratings game. But it will be difficult for a single survey to measure the stability of that spike in voter preference. That is a measure best measured on hindsight, when a series of surveys could be compared or, better yet, after the real votes are cast.

That same survey puts Raul Roco and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in a statistical tie. But it also reinforces Roco’s declining share of voter preference and Arroyo’s increasing share.

Since Roco and Arroyo basically partake of the same constituency, investors will probably wait a while longer before throwing in real money in either campaign. They will likely choose one of the two ideological twins – the one capable of demonstrating greater staying power in the rough-and-tumble of our no-holds-barred electoral tradition.

We will probably be building pressure in the coming weeks for one to give way to the other in order to keep the barbarians (excuse the metaphor) at bay. But these are two headstrong personalities with little love lost for each other. It will be a tough challenge to convince one to yield to the other – even if we plead the survival of a modernizing sort of democracy for our country.

The continued impressive showing of Noli de Castro – a popular personality with neither party support nor the reliable allegiance of any cabal of politicians – has created some amount of interest in the possibility of his running for the highest post in the land. The Group of 5 senators began testing the idea by floating the possibility of de Castro teaming up with Senate President Franklin Drilon under the banner of the Liberal Party.

Last Tuesday, seemingly out of nowhere, assemblies of Noli fans were reported in the metropolis and in Panay island. They are threatening to collect 3 million signatures to convince their idol to take a shot at the presidency.

That number of signatures was probably arrived at as a measure to beat Poe’s alleged 2 million signatures. Considering the nature of the season and the period remaining before the deadline, that might be a quite a chore.

At any rate, many among the middle class voters are now hoping that Noli would run. And this is not because they will vote for him.

It so happens, Noli and Poe partake of the same constituency of voters, much like Roco and Arroyo partake another constituency. If Noli runs, they will keep that rather numerous community divided.

Nothing is really settled until all the major contenders actually file candidacies and begin organizing their campaigns. We are looking at a situation where those capable of organizing large campaigns are running, in the survey ratings, behind those least capable of building movements.

Such is the volatility of the situation at this point. It is a volatility that is obviously not hospitable to large financing flows to the campaign chests.

Those who push large sums at this early stage may be described as hardcore gamblers. Most of them literally are.