Warning from al-Qaeda

TOKYO: Just my luck. I arrive in this country on a beautiful autumn day, with the leaves starting to change color, and the Japanese are spooked by a warning purportedly from al-Qaeda about a possible attack right in the heart of this city.

Tokyo was supposed to be untouched by the threat posed by Osama bin Laden. But now you’ve heard of that warning from his terrorist network: "If (the Japanese) want to destroy their economic power and be trampled under the feet of the combatants of Allah, let them go to Iraq," warned a man identified as Abu Mohammed al-Ablaj, said to be an al-Qaeda leader. "Our strikes will reach the heart of Tokyo."

I didn’t notice any unusual security measures upon my arrival at Narita airport – at least nothing like the near-strip search I underwent at the Northwest departure area at the NAIA. But the markets here dipped nervously and the yen dropped in reaction to the warning.

For the Americans, the bigger worry is whether the warning will make Tokyo drop plans of sending troops to Iraq. The worry was there even before the warning was reported by Al-Majallah, a London-based Saudi newspaper. Most Japanese had opposed the US-led war in Iraq and are grumbling about the deployment there of its Self Defense Forces. And Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s party may not have the appetite to go against popular sentiment.

Now a warning has been aired by a group that has claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing last week that killed 19 Italians and nine Iraqis in southern Iraq. The US ambassador here, Howard Baker, is still painting an optimistic picture about the Japanese deployment. But after the deaths of those Italians, I am sure many of the countries that have contributed or will contribute forces to Iraq are now having second thoughts. One of the few exceptions is the Philippines. * * * Which is probably why the Americans genuinely love Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. J. Cofer Black, coordinator for counterterrorism of the US State Department, had no-thing but high praise for President Arroyo during his visit here.

Shortly after meeting with the President Monday afternoon, Black told a small group of journalists in Manila that she "has really been in the forefront (of the war on terror). She’s been courageous. She has done a good job." If any "but…" comes after that glowing praise, Black, an ambassador at large, isn’t talking.

There’s more: "The Philippines is a leader in the war on terrorism because it has come so far in such a short period of time," he said.

All that praise fueled naughty speculation that US President George W. Bush is endorsing President Arroyo’s candidacy in 2004 by sending his emissaries to Manila to deliver the accolades.

But I think the explanation is simpler: the Americans are in dire need of friends, and here’s one that doesn’t even need coaxing to express her continuing support for the war on terror. Right now the Americans have too much on their plate, and Bush has a lot to worry about in his re-election bid next year, to bother poking their nose into chaotic Philippine politics. * * * Winning global cooperation in the war on terror is Black’s job. With foreign troops getting killed in Iraq, and with al-Qaeda threatening American allies such as Japan, Black’s job is made much harder.

But when you’re the man in charge of "developing, coordinating and implementing US counterterrorism policy" (according to the write-up about him), you can’t afford to be pessimistic about the war on terror.

And so Black, who was director of the Counterterrorist Center of the Central Intelligence Agency before being moved to his current post, is hopeful of victory.

"I’m very optimistic about winning this war. I am absolutely confident," he told us.

How would he define victory against terrorism? "When the average citizen can be free from living in fear."

He acknowledged that the terrorist threat will always be there. And he acknowledged setbacks even among those who are unstinting in their support for the war. He mentioned the escape of Indonesian terrorist Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi.

The Philippines has a long way to go in the war, Black said. "But every day that goes by, you’re more capable." * * * The Philippines will be in this war together with the Americans, but I don’t know what will happen if ever, heaven forbid, someone attacks the Philippine contingent in Iraq. What will candidate GMA do if 19 Filipinos come home from Iraq in body bags, courtesy of al-Qaeda?

There is also that disheartening observation, attri-buted to US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, that terrorists are made faster than they can be killed or captured. While the leadership of Jemaah Islamiyah has been decapitated, there are reports that new ones have taken their place.

This war, however, cannot be won with a loser’s mindset. And so J. Cofer Black goes around the world, seeking "to encourage the will of foreign governments to resist terrorism and defend their people against this threat." Expect him to be in Japan soon to give encou-ragement to a jittery government.

His message to the world: "We need to count upon each other. We’re in this together."

Black concedes that the Philippines is a potential terrorist target, but he insists the risk is being matched by the government’s efforts to contain the threat.

"It is difficult," he said. "But it is a battle that needs to be won." * * * MISSING ANGIE: By the war, does J. Cofer Black still have a Philippine counterpart? Even the Americans want to know. Black met with Angelo Reyes in Washington shortly after the former defense chief was appointed presidential adviser on counterterrorism. The two also met during Black’s Manila visit. But at Black’s press conference, Reyes was nowhere to be found. Instead there was National Security Adviser Roilo Golez.

People are getting the impression that Reyes has lost the counterterrorism portfolio and is simply focusing on his role as anti-kidnapping chief. That would be a demotion for Reyes. Besides which the cops and Interior Secretary Joey Lina, Reyes’ singing buddy, are reportedly unhappy over an ex-soldier’s encroachment on law enforcement turf.

Also, anyone who takes charge of the anti-kidnapping campaign is committing political suicide. Is Reyes still interested in an elective post in 2004?