Waiting game

Since everyone expects her to change her mind, President Arroyo should end speculation and ease uncertainty by announcing soon that she’s running in the elections next year.

She’s getting all the flak anyway from people who firmly believe she will be their strongest rival in the presidential race.

Why, she might even turn the tables on that naughty Sen. Panfilo Lacson, who has succeeded, if not in making his corruption charges against the President’s husband stick, then at least in creating a serious rift in the First Couple’s marriage. If the President declares her candidacy within the week, then all the dirt thrown her way afterwards – including "The Incredible Hulk, Part 3 (the Final Chapter?)" – can be dismissed by her handlers as nothing but political mudslinging by her rivals.

I know the President has the right to keep everyone guessing until the eve of the deadline for the filing of candidacies, which is in December. But if she’s just trying to confuse the enemy, she’s not succeeding. Every potential presidential candidate is working on the premise that she will run, and that she will be a formidable foe.

Perhaps the President merely wants a few more weeks of breathing space to focus on governance without her every act being tainted with accusations of politicking. But she never really got any respite from political brickbats since the day she announced she was withdrawing from the 2004 race.

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While the President awaits divine guidance, she may want to consider the latest downgrade by Moody’s of the country’s foreign currency ratings, from stable to negative. Among the reasons Moody’s cited for the downgrade were the mutiny last July 27 and the suspension of top central bank officials led by Governor Rafael Buenaventura. Moody’s also pointed to political uncertainty in the run-up to the 2004 elections.

Even Catholic bishops want "discernment" from the President; they are reportedly set to meet with her to clarify her political plans. Why? If she’s not running, the bishops want to draw up guidelines for their flock in choosing the nation’s next president. Among the qualities that the Catholics’ choice must possess, according to the bishops, are marital fidelity, family values and good moral character. That excludes all the politicians in this country.

Fortunately for our politicians, there is no significant Catholic vote in this Catholic country. Otherwise we would not have had Joseph Estrada or even Fidel Ramos as president, and Juan Flavier would never have been elected to the Senate.

Still, the bishops – like jittery markets and the diplomatic community – want a clearer picture from Malacañang and are impatient for the President to announce that she has received her marching orders from above.

Having just been to the Vatican, she can say that she finally got her "discernment" from the seat of the Roman Catholic Church.

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While the President dithers, jokes proliferate. When she went on a pilgrimage to the Vatican and had a brief audience with an ailing Pope John Paul II, the joke was: Yes to GMO, no to GMA?

Unlike US President George W. Bush, there were no words of encouragement from the Pope about the right of politicians and women to change their minds.

Yesterday, the part about the Pope’s supposed endorsement of genetically modified organisms (GMO) – as reported by Malacañang – was in effect denied by the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines

There were a lot of jokes, of course, about the Italy-wide blackout during the President’s visit to the Vatican. Let there be light, and there was none. Malacañang added to the comedy by insisting that the blackout was not a divine omen discouraging the President from running in 2004.

And then there were the inevitable jokes about the chemistry between the President and her beleaguered husband, First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo. If a picture paints a thousands words, their pictures together during their latest trip abroad offered evidence of the big chill in their marriage.

That is supposed to be none of our business, but what do you do in a presidential junket where there’s no big news? You watch the body language between the First Couple, and wait for the President to get her discernment and announce her political plans.

Until her return to Manila yesterday, the President was playing coy.

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Apart from seeking divine guidance, she may want to take her cue from economists, who have already said her running in 2004 promised continuity in government policies and therefore some stability in this perpetually unstable country. Her handlers must still be finessing this line in justifying her turnaround from her Dec. 30 announcement about withdrawing from the presidential race.

The flip side of this argument is that her continued stay in office will mean continued destabilization efforts especially by enemies she made at EDSA II. But that’s not how many economic analysts – those willing to be interviewed anyway – see it. They still consider Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo the best bet for the nation when compared with the others expected to seek the presidency.

Even the prospect of a third bombshell from Lacson has been tempered by rumors that the senator failed to obtain a smoking gun against the First Couple in his recent trip abroad. An estranged friend of the President, now living in the United States, reportedly refused to help Lacson, and the talk is that even former Manila Rep. Mark Jimenez, now a jailbird in Florida, also rebuffed the senator.

Malacañang officials are hoping that Lacson has already inflicted his worst on the administration. Even the First Couple’s marriage appears to be on the mend despite the obvious chill. That should satisfy the bishops’ "family values" requirement.

As one Palace official pointed out, the President has been so battered politically and her ratings have sunk so low that there’s no other way to go but up.

If Malacañang really believes that, there’s no sense prolonging national uncertainty by waiting longer for discernment.