Philippine politics: The wild, wild West

The gloves are off. We are in for a presidential campaign that will break records for venom and invective, charges and counter-charges reeking of the latrine. It will be a knockdown and dragout fight. The main protagonists will be President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Sen. Panfilo Lacson. Only one, to be sure, will be left standing at the end, as the other lies flat, clobbered and bloody on the floor, the bootless cries of mercy! mercy! notwithstanding.

Listening to the alleged slander-littered speech of Ping Lacson last Monday, where he gave no quarters to First Gentleman Mike Arroyo and by inference his spouse, the president of the republic no less, you sensed Philippine politics, already filthy, had taken a turn for the swamps. The whole thing is scary. Many middle-class Filipinos, some even in the upper crust, are seriously thinking of migrating. Add this to the millions who have already migrated, and you get a sense of an approaching tidal wave.

There is a feeling the republic is beginning to crumble and they better vamoose before they get hit. How serious is the situation really? Taken in isolation, the Lacson speech did not really amount to much. After all, Mike Arroyo had been battered and bloodied many times before. And the mention of Jose Pidal and Victoria Toh was simply added spice and color. All these were déjà vu in a Philippines rollicking with boudoir escapades, extra-marital sex, bastard children and phony signatures of the high and mighty.

But the situation is really that bad because Ping Lacson is not just Ping Lacson.

He is one of the most feared men in the Philippines who knows how to use power. Just the mention of his name sends a chill up your spine. And when he tars and feathers Gloria and Mike Arroyo, not exactly angels either or models of probity, it means the senator is out to bring the house down. He too appears to be in the grip of despair. The Supreme Court, this September or thereabouts, will hand down its final verdict on the Kuratong Baleleng massacre. The betting is that Kuratong will be back on the legal track. If so, Lacson, the suspected principal, will be arrested forthwith, locked up in jail without any resort to bail, tried, his whole life exposed to ruthless public scrutiny. They say Ping fears this the most.

But that is not all. There are other major role players and the most frequently mentioned is former President Joseph Estrada. If convicted of plunder, Estrada will face death. So it is to his interest, insiders say, to support Ping Lacson to the hilt, sa santong dasalan, o santong paspasan. This way, if Lacson wins in 2004, Erap bolts to freedom by way of amnesty or presidential pardon. If GMA remains president, Erap’s goose is cooked. No way will La Gloria ever pardon Erap who, asserted through Lacson, has she and her husband writhing and twisting on the barbecue pit.

But that is not all.

And this is where the future really looks grim. Mr. Estrada has always looked to the streets for his redemption. Still fabulously rich, they say, he can mobilize his masa and Lacson his supporters for another go at his own version of People Power. Remember the so-called EDSA Tres? This time the streets will really rock. This time the anti-GMA demonstrations may have an armed component. This time, they may also have the assistance of right-wing military rebels. This time there might be killings.

The stakes are high, vast fortunes are on the scale, emotions are close to floodtide. Just one little spark could blow the whole thing sky-high.

Lacson, many say, is desperate, despite his show of bravado in his speech last Monday. Like Estrada, facing a death sentence, Senator Lacson, if thrown into the brig, could also face death or a life sentence if convicted of involvement as a "principal" in the Kuratong Baleleng massacre. Justice Undersecretary Joe Khalida – a tried and true legal luminary – told this columnist the evidence against Lacson is "very strong". This of course will not prevent him from continuing his presidential campaign. Once in jail, can Lacson play the role of martyr, the underdog, wailing to the high heavens he is the victim of political persecution? And stir the streets to hallangone?

On the other hand, La Gloria is not taking all this invective against her lying down. She has the support of the AFP’s and the PNP’s top generals. And it increasingly seems the elite of Philippine society, the princes of the church, the captains of industry will rally around her. Not that they love her or admire her profusely, but because they infinitely prefer her – pimple, warts, infirmities and all – to Ping Lacson. They say Ping’s political and police baggage smacks of Mephisto, Messmer and the Mafia.

These concerns might be soothing. But I too am getting scared that the GMA regime may be blurring the line between democracy and press freedom. According to reports, GMA-7 reporter Tina Panganiban-Perez had been publicly chastised by the president for interviewing Gringo Honasan. And this at a time the "state of rebellion" was still in force. Even some military authorities admitted some media practitioners were under surveillance on the suspicion they could be in league with enemies of the state. This is for the birds.

This is hogwash. This is bull manure.

Not even Ferdinand Marcos could publicly warn media to lay off before he declared martial rule Sept. 21, 1972. And even as dictator, he was careful not to antagonize the foreign press. During my time as an active foreign correspondent for the Agence France-Presse, I had interviewed top communist leaders and enemies of the state on the sly. My stories, they were called scoops then, were published all over the world with my byline. But I never get a call from Malacañang or the dictator’s gorillas, taking me to task, threatening me, asking me to forbear.

They hated my guts, of course. But they respected that line drawn on the ground, even when martial rule was in force. They tried several times with lesser mortals. But always, they retreated. We were doing a job of reporting on the Philippines, and nothing was sacred. Francisco Tatad tried as information minister to cow and whip us into line. So did Primitivo Mijares, a toady turned rebel who wrote The Conjugal Dictatorship. I interviewed Dovey Beams, at one time the dictator’s sultry inamorata, who for my delectation graphically described the president’s behavior in the boudoir. Imelda, who discovered the affair, sent Dovey packing off. And her hubby? She reportedly fell on Macoy like an enraged tigress, flinging telltale pictures taken by her spies, on a president who was reportedly shaking and retreating all the way to Caporetto.

So what if Tina Panganiban-Perez interviewed Gringo? So what if the interview took place while the state of rebellion was still on? This was legitimate journalism. There was nothing sinister or seditious about it. Besides, why the government’s paranoid attitude about Gringo? This guy has blown it. He has made an absolute fool of himself, his silly, inchoate dreams blown to smithereens. Soon media will forget him.

But back to the political campfires. I am laying bets the chances of presidential elections taking place in 2004 are now 50-50. Could get worse. The following things or events can happen during the campaign and sink a dagger in the heart of 2004:

Primo, terror can erupt anew. Jemaah Islamiyah can strike in Metro Manila, explode two bombs with the lethal force that razed the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta. If that does not set off widespread panic and possibly scuttle the election campaign, I don’t know what will.

Secundo, the security layer over Mindanao today is just a thin and taut drumskin. With the death of MILF chieftain Hashim Salamat, that tragic island can burst like a tinderbox anew, and not all the king’s horses and all the king’s men can bring it back together again. With a state of national emergency in Mindanao, national elections cannot be held.

Tertio, street demonstrations in Metro Manila, especially in the event President George W. Bush visits October, can touch off communist and nationalist pandemonium, the kind our military will seek to crush ruthlessly. What will happen afterward is anybody’s guess. It can however create a vacuum to the extreme satisfaction of Vice President Tito Guingona and assorted nationalist company, and the satisfaction too of civil society which pulled the pin off EDSA I and II.

Quarto, a steep slide in GMA’s approval ratings could cut one or two legs off her campaign. This she cannot afford to happen. And again, she cannot afford not to win in 2004. The costs would be horrible to contemplate. She and husband would be in extreme jeopardy and, to boot, Erap Estrada and Ping Lacson will not only go scot-free but cast their dominion over the country. Since defeat is not in the cards for GMA, only victory, this could be another slide to chaos and anarchy.

Yes, we do hear a time-bomb ticking.

And yes, for the first time, the alarm has spread to monster proportions? Everybody now exclaims: "My God, what is happening to our country?" Despite ritual exultation over Ninoy Aquino’s 20th death anniversary, hope is a diminishing commodity.