Countdown to war

The postponement of President Arroyo’s state visit to the United States and several European countries is yet another indication that war is about to break out in Iraq. We received a report late Wednesday afternoon about the President’s decision to postpone her trip, but we were told that Malacañang had not yet informed Washington about it.

Reports from Washington indicate it was US President George W. Bush who started calling up world leaders Wednesday night (late morning or early afternoon in DC) as he cranked up the diplomatic initiative to get support for the war. Among the first to get a call was President Arroyo. In a 15-minute conversation, they agreed, among other things, to postpone her trip. Ronald Post, counselor for public affairs of the US embassy here, said the telephone conversation had long been scheduled.

Did the two leaders agree on something else? Perhaps it was just coincidence, but a Philippine representative to the United Nations expressed support yesterday for an earlier deadline for Iraq to disarm.

There is a general impression that the Americans are ready to go it alone – even without the British, if the "coalition of the willing" proves to be too much trouble for Prime Minister Tony Blair – before US troops in the Gulf die of boredom. Some reports from the US media say the hawks in the Bush administration believe America does not need anyone’s approval to defend itself.

Since every self-respecting Islamist terrorist has America and American interests in his sights, the United States may simply invoke self-defense when it unleashes its Mother of All Bombs (MOAB) on Saddam Hussein, whether or not the United Nations comes on board.

Judging by the mood on Capitol Hill, Americans are giving up on the French. Reports said French fries have been dropped from the menu of the US Congress, replaced with "freedom fries" – the same junk food, laced with patriotism. French toast for lawmakers’ breakfast is another casualty. What next – the French kiss? The Internet is flooded with American jokes about the spineless French army. The Vietnamese must be enjoying this.

* * *

Blair seems undaunted by US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s threat to go it alone. Yesterday Blair proposed several measures that he hoped could break the standoff. Among them: the destruction of 10,000 liters of anthrax germs and other chemical and biological weapons Saddam is suspected to be keeping.

Going by Saddam’s track record, he’ll probably agree to destroy 100 liters, say that’s it, and wait for a UN nod led by the French. The UN will consider that substantial compliance and everyone will go home and sleep, until those pesky Americans start rapping on UN doors again. By the time Saddam destroys the next 100 liters, it will be the summer of 2004. I don’t think Washington is prepared to wait that long.

So get ready for the MOAB.

* * *

Meanwhile the peso keeps plumbing new depths while the next oil price hike must be just around the corner. There go the summer holidays. I console myself with the thought that life is just as bad in the United States.

Friends living there have e-mailed me that gas prices are also skyrocketing in the US. Gas prices are reportedly highest in California, where the average pump price as of yesterday for unleaded gasoline was $2.10 per gallon. A big sale recently in many department stores there reportedly attracted few people. The US economy is bad and Americans are bracing for war, cutting back on spending, a friend wrote.

If the US economy is weak, it won’t be long before we feel the impact. So we haven’t seen the worst of it.

* * *

There was an interesting story this week, denied by Washington and Islamabad. Iran’s state radio reported that Osama bin Laden had been arrested in Pakistan. The arrest would be announced only after war breaks out in Iraq, according to the report.

This came on the heels of reports that Bin Laden’s son Saad, a member of al-Qaeda, had been wounded and captured in Rabat in southwestern Afghanistan. The capture was announced by the home affairs minister of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. Amid US denials, the minister said he was standing by his story.

Now why would Iran, a spoke in Bush’s "axis of evil," announce something like that if the story were false? Would Bin Laden’s capture further erode support for an attack on Saddam?

Books on Bin Laden, by the way, consistently report that he is no admirer of Saddam. Bin Laden frowned on Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. How would an attack on Iraq strike a blow against al-Qaeda?

Amid speculation about Bin Laden’s capture, some quarters are now worried about the prospect of turning him into a martyr in case he is killed in pursuit operations. Even in books about him written by Americans, Bin Laden is depicted as one of the most popular personalities in the Muslim world. He is the guy who stood up to America, a multimillionaire who used his wealth for the cause of Muslims and gave up a life of luxury to fight alongside the poorest mujahedeen. Even my moderate Muslim friends express grudging admiration for him, although in public they denounce his violent methods.

Bin Laden, in the eyes of many Muslims, is already seen as a martyr for the Islamist cause. If Washington dropped a MOAB on the borders of Pakistan and Afghanistan to take him out, the world will probably understand. How come the world has shifted its focus to Iraq?

* * *

UNWITTING ENDORSERS: The downfall of Multitel Investors Corp. and its charismatic boss Rosario Baladjay should serve as a lesson to public officials about giving endorsements to products and services. Pyramid schemes exploit the trust of victims, and an endorsement from a senator, no matter how innocuous, can go a long way in inspiring confidence.