2004: The race is on

Bombings. Economic downturns. Currency fluctuations. An impen-ding war with Iraq. It appears that a host of external and internal factors are fast merging to make our lives a few notches more challenging and difficult than before. No doubt, there is uncertainty in the air, and what is predictable is that it could get worse. People are asking, "Where is our country heading? Is there light at the end of the tunnel?"

Like this email I received from a desperate businessman who, in his anxiety, proposed that Filipinos launch a massive campaign in 2004 for US Statehood. As the saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures, but the colonial days are over. When Manuel Quezon asked for our independence, there was a fine print that said, "No-return, no-exchange." America’s interest is for the Philippines to strengthen its democratic system, and to have a friendly government in place to protect its own interests.

That’s why I firmly believe that 2004 is a critical time to hold credible elections so we could bring this country back on track.

Information I have tells me the Opposition is starting to rev up its political engines, consolidating its forces as it casts a confident eye on the coming polls. Close door meetings have been going on, and from what I have gathered, the group has chosen Senator Ping Lacson to be its standard bearer. As for the possibility that FPJ will run for president, the truth is, Erap has been trying to convince him and he’s been resisting it. There’s a possibility that FPJ would be Ping’s running mate, or better yet, his campaign manager. The group is likewise trying to convince Senators Johnny Flavier or Loren Legarda to run as Ping’s vice presidential candidate. There’s a big chance the Opposition would be divided into two factions if Senator Ed Angara would insist on running for president. However, the group is striving to persuade Angara to help unite the Opposition by fully supporting the candidacy of Ping. According to an informal survey, the choice has been well received by a number of Filipino-Chinese groups who have steadily supported Lacson even during his anti-organized crime days. Ping Lacs on’s selling point is to bring peace and order into the country.

At the other corner sits former Education secretary Raul Roco, who, according to a recent informal survey, is leading the pack of potential candidates with Lacson following not too far behind. Roco almost made it to the presidential seat in the 1998 elections when he finished 3rd overall despite the lack in campaign funds. He told me he spent roughly P35 million (which translates to about P8 per voting citizen) as opposed to other presidential aspirants who spent billions for the campaign. In all likelihood, Roco would include in his political agenda better access to formal education for the poor. I have always believed that to rise up as president is a matter of destiny, and being a product of your time. Raul Roco is convinced his time has come.

Of course, at the center ring would be PGMA — the person to beat. As the one in power, she has at the tip of her fingers the political machinery to fuel her campaign. PGMA’s position in history is quite unique. She’s the only incumbent president who could, according to the present Constitution, vie for re-election, or rather, validation. Today, and perhaps beyond 2004, she would continue to advocate her theme of a strong republic. Mar Roxas, who is strutting around as PGMA’s niño bonito, hopes to be her running mate. But against Loren, he’s a political lightweight. There is, however, the danger that the administration coalition may be ripped in three due to the break made by Vice President Teofisto Guingona and Raul Roco.

Although it’s still too early to tell who would be added to the list of aspirants, I believe this is how the three-way race would start. As I have said on many occasions, 2004 is crucial because it is through the holding of credible elections that the country can get back on track so we could have, at least, a sense of order and predictability. Foreign and local investors are looking at predictability as a key component in economic activity. Democratic institutions and processes must be strengthened by letting them run through their normal, preordained course. Hopefully, history would repeat itself in 2004. We have seen how the political and economic atmosphere of the country improved when we held credible elections in 1992.

Year 2004 is perhaps the only remaining light at the end of the tunnel. As Winston Churchill once said, democracy may have its imperfections, but perhaps, it’s the only one that works.

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Our publisher Max Soliven and I are leaving for Vietnam today for a couple of days. The last time I was in Vietnam was about 30 years ago when I was a young TV reporter. I’m looking forward to visiting this country. As I have said in my previous column, Vietnam is progressively moving forward.

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