Presidentialitis this early / Yep, throw him out

There have been voices of gloom and doom, mine included, that this country has sunk to near rock-bottom, that, alas, there is hardly light at the end of the tunnel. But wait, and as the Spanish would say – espera. Mention the presidential elections scheduled 2004, and what do you have? All the lights come on. There is instant verbal upchuck. What follows is a full-throated give-and-take on who will run, who will win, who are likeliest to be favored by the gods. Nothing is ever mentioned about what really gives, and how do we solve the many problems afflicting the country.

I’ll join the melée. The biggest industry in the Philippines after all is politics. Its crown jewel is the presidential elections. As a journalist, I have observed and covered presidential elections since 1949 when Jose P. Laurel lost to Elpidio Quirino and the whole province of Batangas almost rose in bloody revolt. The Old Man stayed the angry hand of the Batangueño who protested Laurel had been cheated. In Pampanga, cradle of the Huk uprising, bodies floated down many rivers, so bloody were the elections. The Americans were back and would seen profile behind the subsequent presidency of Ramon Magsaysay.

The aristocratic Quirino, a political grandee to his fingertips, could never abide the victory of Magsaysay whom he considered his inferior in so many ways. Magsaysay almost turned Philippine politics around. It was he whose photo-op was the most memorable in history when as defense secretary, he carried the dead body of Moises Padilla in his arms in Bacolod. This was in utter defiance of Governor Rafael Lacson, who antedated today’s super political goons who have murdered, but unlike Lacson, have yet to be punished and kicked into gaol.

But we must move out of remembering and concentrate on today’s presidentiables.

Sen. Edgar Angara, it seems, has thrown his hat earlier than most. The presidency has always fascinated him, haunted him, eluded him. His first serious try was in 1998. Before that in a Senate coup masterminded by Sen. Ernesto Maceda, Angara gained the Senate presidency. This was a move his supporters said "marginalized" another senator, namely Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Except that a former senator who was vice president at the time, Joseph Estrada, had moved into the presidential derby. Erap was big, huge, boisterously popular, an unstoppable meteor, so to speak. Angara had to give way, settled down to the vice presidential slot, lost to GMA.

What are Angara’s chances? The man has intellectual brilliance, a good political fulcrum. He is a great organizer, possesses an easy intimate but lackluster charm and the latter could be his Waterloo. The presidential elections are vaudeville. The presidential candidate has to be wired and charged. He should know how to move and agitate and ignite the crowds.

An undeclared frontrunner is Raul Roco. If elections were held today, Roco would, according to the IBON survey, be unbeatable. He has a corner on the youth, the studentry, the women’s vote. President GMA, certainly bothered by Roco’s gathering shadow, virtually booted him out of the Cabinet. Overnight, Roco cast the most compelling presidential spell. Can Raul Roco parlay this to the presidency in 2004? He stands a good chance if he builds up a formidable political network and continues to remain in the public eye. This is Roco’s biggest challenge, grasping another brass ring that will have the citizenry glued to his presidential coat-of-arms.

President GMA hasn’t said anything about running in 2004. But she doesn’t have to say anything. Every word, every act, every gesture, every photo-op, is geared towards 2004. What are her chances of winning? A great lot will depend on her popularity rating shortly before the presidential elections. If she stays the present course of a net approval rating of 18 percent (48 percent satisfied, 30 percent not satisfied), she would still be the front-runner. She has all the resources of the government on her side, the Comelec, the military and the police, assuming they stick to her, the logistics, the war chest. And very presumably the Americans.

There’s another senator who hasn’t said anything about 2004 yet. But Panfilo Lacson’s body language is like a fighter-bomber’s bomb bay loaded for an assignment to the presidential wars. Of late, he has been quoted as saying anybody can beat GMA, and that of course includes himself. What is however remarkable about his latest statement is his claim the opposition does not need Fernando Poe Jr. to clobber GMA in 2004. Left unsaid is that Ping Lacson strongly resents the FPJ intrusion because in his book, he can easily beat GMA.

Ping Lacson counts on his being the alleged heir-apparent of Joseph Estrada who still musters strong support and loyalty from substantial sectors of the masa. And he reportedly has the logistics, a war chest that beggars everybody else’s. And, believe it or not, there is word going around he could be a good and effective president because Ping Lacson has – listen to this – the balled fist the nation needs. Lacson threw a posy to Sen. Aquilino Pimentel who he said, together with Angara "could easily defeat" GMA in 2004. As of now, I don’t believe Nene is interested.

Where the opposition is concerned, the big fly in the ointment remains Fernando Poe Jr.

I am personally convinced FPJ right now is looking at all his options. And the presidential option, supposedly zero just about half a year ago, is now high in his deliberations. I am close to being sure FPJ will run, not because he really wants to, but because the forces pressing and compelling him to run are just too powerful for him to resist. Inevitably, he might even like the idea. No person exists who can resist the chance – in FPJ’s case, almost sure chance – to be president of the Philippines. FPJ has a powerful ally in his wife, Susan Roces, in her own right a very popular personality, the supposed First Lady of Philippine cinema.

But, as I have written before, FPJ’s entry into presidential politics could be just the thing that could rip the lid off the Box of Pandora.

For several reasons. One, while the masa will welcome him with open arms, the middle forces might just decide to set up a powerful, full-fisted blocking force. Two, it’s no longer the masa in numbers that ride saddle on the nation’s political future but civil society. Proof: They and not the masa toppled two presidents, Ferdinand Marcos and Joseph Estrada. Through People Power. Three, People Power sees FPJ as the stalking horse of Erap Estrada. Elected president, Ronnie Poe could very well pardon Erap if the latter should be convicted of plunder charges in the current Sandiganbayan trial. Four, the middle forces take unkindly to the possibility FPJ will only stay a shot while in Malacañang, then as per agreement, cede the presidency to his vice president, very likely Ping Lacson.

And finally, five. The military, also avid for ultimate power, might also just decide to block FPJ. The Americans reportedly have been warned against an FPJ presidency, even an FPJ candidacy, since this could or would land on the Philippine political situation like a mighty fragmentation bomb. Instead of uniting the Filipino people, it is argued, it could set off an artificial class war between rich and poor. I can no more imagine FPJ as a president or hero of the masses than I could Erap Estrada who loved drink, women, mansions, gambling, money, power more than anything else.

All that masa thing is tomfoolery.

* * *

Well, kudos to Justice Secretary Hernando Perez. This mustachioed Batangueño, he of the ala-eh accent and the balisong brogue refuses to bend the knee to Chinese Ambassador Wang Chunggi. If we believe Secretary Perez – and I believe him – the Chinese diplomat’s arrogance and imperial hauteur are unprecedented. In the very office of Perez, Wang reportedly dug his heels and stormed, raised his voice to abusive decibels, demanding that 122 Chinese poachers caught in the Spratleys be immediately released. Perez insisted the laws of the Philippines would have to be observed. To be released, the Chinese fishermen should first plead guilty to charges of poaching.

Sure, our cordial relations with China should be preserved. Soon, the Chinese market will be our most important market, and we certainly have greatly benefited from generations of Chinese-Filipinos who have substantially contributed to boosting the nation’s economy. All that is admitted.

But this Wang has behaved like no other foreign ambassador has behaved in this our so-called beloved country. While he is to be creditted for fighting for his imprisoned countrymen, there is a line in the ground. And this line tells him he has absolutely no right to behave like a pro-consul in the Philippines, insolent, haughty, pretentious, treating the Filipino – a justice secretary at that – as though he were a coolie, a lowly vassal come to pay tribute to the emperor. I am amazed that Foreign Secretary Blas Ople treats Mr. Wang with a kid glove, ready to forgive, ready to forget.

Yes indeed, Mr. Wang has to be booted out. And pronto.