The Roco factor

During that intense historic period where the whole nation was glued to the Senate impeachment proceedings, two senators stood out. They were Raul Roco and Loren Legarda. Roco was the multi-faceted lawyer, sharp, probing, lynx-eyed with a steel-trap mind. He was more than the match of two other top Senate lawyers, Miriam Defensor Santiago and Juan Ponce Enrile. The other was Loren, her lovely face now purposeful with piercing interrogation. The journalist in her illuminated dark, hidden corners her Senate colleagues missed. I was impressed. These two, I told myself then, would make their mark in 2004.

In those tumultuous days starting Jan. 16, 2001, the EDSA Shrine came alive following the Craven Eleven’s 11-10 hollow triumph that blocked the opening of the "Second Envelope." It was a day of infamy as it was of national pride. Suddenly, President Joseph Estrada bled all over, his stomach slit wide open, his intestines showing. His closest cohorts deserted him. These included the military and police brass led by AFP chief of staff Gen. Angelo Reyes. A superb rainbow rose from hundreds of thousands at the EDSA Shrine, marking the end of another brazen presidential predator.

At the EDSA Shrine, Raul Roco and Loren Legarda rode the crest of adulatory waves. I remember at the time there wasn’t much enthusiasm for Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. There were even a few scattered boos when somebody from the stage mentioned her name. Former President Corazon Aquino strode forward on the stage to introduce GMA as "the next president of the Philippines". But the massed throngs didn’t react with any kind of enthusiasm. GMA was an enigma then. And still remains an enigma.

Maybe we can look back at those days for lessons and answers on the political paralysis gripping the nation today.

The Senate, though dominated by the Estrada majority, still did itself proud. Roco, Legarda, Franklin Drilon and the others comprising the opposition lit bonfires that are devilishly at the edges of a shaky majority. The public swifted to their side. Senators Francisco Tatad, Enrile and Santiago became objects of derision. All throughout Blas Ople maintained a silence that had Erap scrawled in bold letters on his barong. Now, today, just many months after, the Senate is regarded as a pirates’ swamp. Paddle as they will, 24 senators cannot get out of the swamp where public ridicule and derision has placed them.

Unfortunately for her, Loren Legarda no longer basks in the glory that was hers during the impeachment trial. Fortunately for him, Raul Roco had filled out his Senate tenure and could no longer run in the 2002 elections. Perhaps unfair and unjust to her, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo inherited a political, economic and social can of worms the citizenry expects her to incinerate before 2004. But she did one thing that probably will haunt her in the coming months and years. GMA appointed Raul Roco as secretary of education. In so doing, she gave him the brass ring to possibly occupy centerstage in 2004.

So there you are as political fortunes will have it.

Roco rode to the top during the impeachment proceedings, embellishing a political record that had already significant luster. He was a close third during the 1998 presidential elections. But the two who beat him are now considered political fossils, namely Joseph Estrada and now House Speaker Jose de Venecia. Just by keeping to himself and doing his job as education secretary, and doing it well, Roco has steered clear of the political slush now embedding Philippine politics in the gutter. In one fell stroke – signing a Senate resolution that would have allowed Estrada to leave the country for knee surgery abroad – Loren darkened her once brilliant chances for 2004. Her loyalty to a rotting Senate also boxed her in. In acceding to the presidency at the wrong time, GMA now finds herself swimming upriver. She is brave as brave can be but so far she lacks the skills to forge ahead.

The brass ring. I have always adhered to the politics of the brass ring.

The gifts are there, the intellect, the talent, the principles, the conviction. But they need luck and opportunity. And luck comes in the form of the brass ring. When political fortune deserted Raul Roco during the 1998 presidential elections, he was virtually finished where his vision of Malacañang was concerned. But the Senate impeachment trial of Estrada came with a brass ring. Roco instantly grabbed that brass ring. He unsheathed his legal sword more formidably than anybody else. He crossed swords with Lady Miriam and won. He came across like the Sir Galahad everybody was looking for, and this must have stuck in the public mind. He had a clean image. Smelled good.

Now, according to the latest Ibon presidential survey, Raul Roco is the man to beat in 2004. He has 19.96 percent of the total vote.

Coming second (parbleu as the French would say, hot damn as the Yankee would say) is Joseph Estrada with 14.08 percent. A far third is Gloria Macapagal Arroyo with 11.13 percent, fourth Panfilo Lacson 9.66, fifth Loren Legarda 7.56, Fernando Poe Jr. 5.25, sixth Teofisto Guingona 5.25. Others 27.10 percent. Now, you ask me, is the Ibon survey reliable? Does Ibon have the professional credentials of Pulse Asia and SWS (Social Weather Stations)? Maybe yes and maybe not. But future surveys are in the works, and they will validate or invalidate Ibon.

I have no reason however to doubt Raul Roco’s frontline position.

With the Senate stuck in a quagmire, I do not see any sitting senator today beguiling the electorate to stride beside him or her in pursuit of the presidency. The Senate has always been a nursery of strong presidential hopefuls, of model politicians. GMA’s efforts to strike the fear of God into the nation’s criminals, into graft and corruption, into poverty, until today look like Jiminy Cricketts’ boot getting in the way of the mercurial Ronaldo. The cards are stuck against her unless she uncorks a miracle – and soon. There has been a lot of talk about FPJ bearing that torch all the way to the Malacañang brazier. But I doubt he’ll undertake it. It’s surefire recipe for political suicide. Erap was power mad. And so collapsed. FPJ, if he has any iota of intelligence, must flee 2004 like a screaming banshee. Assuming he gets into Malacañang, FPJ will be crucified.

Whatever motivated GMA to appoint Roco as her education secretary still escapes me. Unwittingly, she gave Roco another brass ring in his pursuit of the presidency.

It removed Roco from the dirt and dross of politics. It converted him into a bureaucrat. Which was just right for him. Education was his forte. He had a "love affair" with schoolteachers, with the women vote. This was just one step from getting into the magic world of the youth, the studentry. Roco exploited this for all it was worth. If he was looking for pay dirt, this was it. No other living politician has ignited the youth and the studentry as he has. Estrada spoke the language of the masa, which GMA is trying to imitate. Roco speaks the language of education. Of the middle class. He speaks the language of science and math, the twin educational catapults leading to modern technology. God knows how we Filipinos occupy the bottom of the pit when it comes to technology.

Past Pulse Asia surveys have him right on top in the performance ratings of cabinet members and other officials.

In the December 2-19, 2001 survey, Roco as DECS secretary, was on top with 65 percent. DOH Secretary Manuel Dayrit was a far second with 41, DTI Secretary Manuel Roxas II third with 36. Then you had DILG Secretary Jose D. Lina 29 percent, Executive Secretary Alberto Romulo 22 percent, DOT Secretary Richard Gordon 22, DOJ Secretary Hernando Perez 21 percent. The Pulse Asia survey March 22-April 10, 2002, on the same bracket had Roco right out in front with 69 percent, Manuel Dayrit 55 percent, Mar Roxas 38 percent, Alberto Romulo 29, and DSWD Secretary Corazon Soliman 26 percent. And so on down the line. Nowhere do I encounter the name of Defense Secretary Gen. Angelo Reyes.

With the political currents now running sturdily in his favor, Raul Roco will soon be locked up in a difficult dilemma.

He cannot long remain in the Cabinet. He cannot long exploit the DECS and gather more momentum without GMA putting her foot down. Everybody knows GMA has set her eyes for 2004. She whistles mightily everyday for the winds to whip strongly at her sails in this mad, mad race for the presidential elections two years away. Roco’s continued stay in the Cabinet is becoming more and more untenable. Will he bolts? If he bolts this early, can he sustain the momentum? Does he have the resources? The party? The money? The vast political network necessary to conquer Malacañang? Or will Roco, GMA and the other presidential hopefuls run into a maelstrom of social revolt now building up and threatening damnation on the political system?

We really don’t know. A Roco buildup could also scare shadow elements in the military who aspire to take over power. On one hand, the generals. On the other hand, the colonels. Roco can also expect black propaganda henceforth to hurtle into his face with the intensity of a desert storm. The Right will not look too kindly on Roco’s presidential ambitions. To scratch out her humiliation at coming third in the IBON survey, GMA may be pressed by events, as they become more and more turbulent, to declare a state of emergency or martial rule. She is after all right now the darling of Washington. As Ferdinand Marcos was before he declared martial law Sept. 21, 1972. And the Americans just smiled.

The Roco factor comes at a time when the winds whip, the tides mount, and the ground under our feet begins to get unsteady.