Avoid hubris

It was easy to guess that the anti-government rallies the other day would not draw the numbers feared by Malacañang. Net 25, the TV station owned by the Iglesia ni Cristo, had no dedicated live coverage of the mass actions. From April 26 to May 1, 2001, it was the INC, with a liberal helping from Mike Velarde’s El Shaddai, that swelled the EDSA Tres crowd to proportions that would leave Malacañang spooked for a year.

Why only a year? Because after that May Day 2002 show of force – or more accurately, show of weakness – of Joseph Estrada’s shock troops, I think the Arroyo administration will finally start shedding its paranoia of anything that even remotely smacks of Erap para sa mahirap.

Too bad workers and militant groups must now share their one day of the year in the national limelight with supporters of the man they helped kick out of Malacañang. People can get confused in this country. Is that a leftist or pro-Erap rally? If the legitimate Left wants to preserve what’s left of its credibility, it should stay as far away as possible from Erap’s gang.

GMA, resign. Out with the PPA. Out with US troops. Down with Balikatan. Onward with trade unionism. Free Erap. Free Nur Misuari. With that jumble of messages in a confusing sea of red and orange streamers, I wouldn’t blame people if on a sweltering May Day they looked for a TV show featuring yet another tearful episode of Claudine after Rico.

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Is Erap finished? Not quite. He’ll always have his loyal fans chanting that they’ll stick together forever, "Walang iwanan!" Even the Marcos loyalists are intact, their genuine admiration for the departed dictator undiminished.

But as a force that can mount an EDSA IV and topple President Arroyo, Erap’s camp is finished. May Day 2002 was their last hurrah. Unless President GMA bungles royally this year, by May 1, 2003 the nation will no longer be in any mood for yet another change of government through people power. It would be too close to the campaign period for the 2004 presidential race. In fact the race is already starting, although all the potential candidates are officially still in denial mode.

A coup? President GMA should start looking with suspicion at any military or police officer (or presidential adviser or consultant) who gives her a purported intelligence report about an alleged coup plot. Most likely, that officer is simply trying to ingratiate himself to her, to wangle a promotion or a juicy post, or simply to get noticed. I know security is the weakest link in the much vaunted Arroyo IQ, but she should stop swallowing everything she is fed by some of her most trusted men.

If you want to annoy this administration, invite several military and police officers to a private gathering, then joke about staging a coup. Then enjoy yourself when the government brings out the heavy artillery – or rather, the forklifts and container vans – to ring Malacañang for a day or two. You’ll have to endure the President’s trademark smug sneer about a "spent force" when the "coup" fails to materialize, but it will be worth it.

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The worst thing the government can do now is to publicly dismiss any group – no matter how truly spent their forces are or how moribund their movement – as a spent force. Hubris has brought down some of the most popular politicians in this country.

Instead the administration should be grateful for the relatively peaceful May 1 gatherings. Then it should reach out to the mainstream political opposition, whose members do have sensible proposals for straightening out the nation’s mess. It’s notable that none of these opposition politicians showed up at the May Day rallies calling for the ouster of GMA. 

If the President wants to win a regular six-year term she’ll need some measure of success in the three years that she has received as a gift of fate. For this measure of success she’ll need the cooperation of the opposition, which now seems ready to give it.

Is Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo capable of noblesse oblige? I’m not sure, since she can’t even control her vile temper. She snaps at squatters when they throw her an irritating question. Can she reach out to the opposition without wondering if she’s shaking the hand of a potential rival for the presidential race? Or shaking the hand of a coup plotter?

If she can’t do it for the nation, she should do it for herself. Her enemies may no longer be capable of ousting her through people power or a coup, but she can still be kicked out in the 2004 elections.