One year after

The story goes that Joseph Estrada was determined to stay put at Malacañang until he saw his military commanders, led by then Armed Forces chief Angelo Reyes, at the EDSA Shrine on Jan. 19 last year. At the sight of Reyes on TV, Erap reportedly sighed that it was the end of him, and he was right. Not long after, the rats in his administration deserted his sinking ship and scampered to EDSA.

One year after, as rumors of yet another uprising swirl, the one group I’m watching is the military. Sure, you need warm bodies in a revolt. But you have to admit that the military played a crucial role in the outcomes of EDSA 1, 2 and 3.

Members of the rightist Rebolusyonaryong Alyansang Makabansa and the Young Officers’ Union are no longer mischievous, adventurous spring chickens and have retired from coup plotting. These days they’re promising to help thwart any coup attempt.

So I’m watching Defense Secretary Angie Reyes, who as far as I know has the solid backing of the AFP and its chief, Diomedio Villanueva. The question on many people’s minds is this: If Reyes could turn against Erap, his friend and kumpare, would he also turn against President GMA?

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"There’s no doubt (President Arroyo) will finish her term," Reyes told us Wednesday night. "And one of my primary responsibilities is to see to it that she does."

He emphasized that his loyalty is to the people. "I did not betray Estrada as a friend," he said. "The man is my friend. The man was very kind to me. (But) they deserted their mandate so I deserted them."

Reyes is clearly still happy with the way President GMA is doing her job. As the nation marks the first anniversary of EDSA Dos, he says he has "no regrets" about what he did.

Two things must be met before the military will step into a mass uprising, he said. One, there must be "genuine moral outrage" – something that can’t be manufactured or bought. Two, there must be the danger of the nation being torn apart, of the nation’s future being threatened if the situation deteriorates into chaos. In the case of EDSA Dos, he said, it was the culmination of months of discontent with the administration, and "the lid was about to blow off."

So was people power II in fact a coup?

"I don’t care what they call it. What I care about is the righteousness of the cause," he said. "You cannot prop up an unpopular regime indefinitely."

I asked him if he thought we’re better off now than a year ago.

His reply: "The question should be, where would we be now if EDSA Dos did not happen?"

A year is too short a time, he said, to pass judgment on an administration, especially one that did not have the usual transition period and operated on a re-enacted budget. "We’re talking about centuries-old problems – poverty, corruption, unemployment," he pointed out.

Reyes acknowledged that there will always be people who will be unhappy with his actions on Jan. 19, 2001 and will be suspicious of his every move.

"History might not judge me kindly," he said. "But I think history will judge me fairly."

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One year after EDSA Dos, almost all sectors have some complaint about the administration. Reyes said it’s one of the hazards of leadership in this country. "You’re now our leader, do the work for us," he said. "People expect the government to do everything for them."

Another Cabinet member, Finance Secretary Jose Isidro Camacho, sighs, "People don’t see how much we’ve done."

The problem, Camacho says, is that President GMA’s achievements are reflected mainly in statistics that can be appreciated mostly by economists alone. He points out that despite the bigger absolute figures in the budget deficit, "we feel we’re actually in much better shape because we can control it… we feel we have a sense of what we’d like to be.

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A year after EDSA Dos, my peso can buy less, traffic seems to be worse, we’re still the poster boy for what a democracy should NOT be like. We’re still saddled with poverty, corruption, unemployment, a feudal political system and mediocre politicians. I feel that we keep repeating the same mistakes, that – to borrow from Alphonse Karr – the more things change, the more they stay the same.

But I think things could’ve been worse, given the global economic slump and the terrorist attacks last year, the new caper by the Abu Sayyaf, the kidnappings, the way this President ascended to power.

"I’m optimistic things will turn out okay," Reyes said.

EDSA Dos booted out a corrupt, incompetent president. He remains out of power, detained and on trial. The economy managed to grow. If only for these things, I’m making an effort to share Reyes’ optimism.