Economic fallout

We’re not sending combat troops anywhere, and Osama bin Laden hasn’t taken a slow boat to Basilan from Afghanistan. The wanted posters say he’s about 6’5" and walks with a cane. An Arab with those features can’t travel incognito easily. Let’s not get overexcited about international terrorism reaching Philippine shores – it arrived here a long time ago.

After expressing condolences to the American people, our national leaders may also want to just shut up and wait for a request from Washington, if any is forthcoming, for any particular assistance they might want in the fight against terrorism. Then we can all shoot our mouths off for or against the request.

* * *

What we can get excited about – what we should worry about – is the economic fallout from the attacks in New York and Washington. The terrorists who crashed those commercial planes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon also struck a blow against the global economy. Even before the attacks there were already fears of an economic slowdown and speculation about a recession in the United States.

Now the figures are going to be worse. As you may have already learned from CNN, the US airline industry is set to lay off close to a hundred thousand workers. Tourism and related industries are expected to be among the hardest hit. We’ve just received a press release from the New York Convention and Visitors’ Bureau. That’s the spirit, but I don’t think it’s going to make much of a difference. People are scared, and no matter how much they commiserate with the victims of terrorism, people are avoiding American carriers. Better safe than sorry, especially if you know that if bad luck strikes, one could end up classified merely as missing, which means bereaved loved ones would have no remains to bury and won’t even be able to collect life insurance.

The insurance industry will also take a terrible hit. Reports said claims related to the terrorist attacks may exceed $25 billion – the worst disaster to hit the industry.

Some are pinning their hopes on the defense industry, which naturally makes money from armed conflict. It’s ghoulish, but someone has to make the weapons, ammo, fighter jets, battleships and other war materiel. The problem is that this new war, as US defense officials have already said, is going to be unconventional, and defense spending may not be as high as expected.

US leaders are calling on their people to continue spending. At least that’s one problem I think we’ll never have here. When Filipinos have money, the first impulse is to spend (before prices go up?). Consumer spending accounted for the better-than-expected growth figures in the second quarter of the year.

If American consumption drops, we’re in trouble. Our export markets are bad enough as it is. Apart from falling consumption, there are jitters about the world’s oil supply in case of conflict in the Middle East. Our overseas workers could be sent home, swelling the ranks of the unemployed here.

Yesterday the Asian Development Bank warned of a global economic slowdown similar to the one that started with the Asian crisis in 1997. Malacañang and Congress should put their heads together for a proper response to this warning.

* * *

ONLY IN RP: Speaking of insurance, do we have protection from unscrupulous insurance companies? The Insurance Commission received 922 complaints from January to August this year, 80 percent of which involved motor vehicles. A recent story said that of 3.5 million vehicles nationwide, a staggering 2.5 million are not covered by insurance despite payment of the requisite insurance fee upon registration of the vehicle. The Land Transportation Office should make public a list of bogus or fly-by-night insurance firms as well as their agents.

Last month my car figured in an accident. The driver of the other car, Alan Qua Borbe, immediately admitted his fault and promised to replace the rear bumper. It was replaced, all right, but I aged 20 years dealing with his insurance agent, Vincent Enterprises, with office at Room 903, Taipan Place on Emerald Avenue. After going through their wringer, I was ready to be short-changed by more than P1,500 just so I would no longer have to deal with their service with a snarl. Vincent and its owners, Vincent Ong and daughter Maribeth Sy, are agents of insurance company Philippines First.

Read the fine print in your insurance policy, and check out your insurance company or agent so you don’t get swindled of your hard-earned money.