Estrada factor in Philippine politics

As of June 2001, most Filipinos thinking of their former President no longer see him as an active protagonist in a critical struggle for political preeminence. Almost half a year beyond EDSA Dos, with several Supreme Court decisions affirming the legitimacy of her administration and a national election giving her candidates enough seats in the Senate, most people have decided to give President Arroyo the benefit of the doubt and cease questioning the constitutional basis of her presidency or the popular support it commands. Pragmatically, most Filipinos now only ask that she be effective in addressing the nation’s urgent economic and political concerns.

This is the view that emerges from the findings of Pulse Asia’s most recent national survey, its quarterly Ulat ng Bayan series. Based on the opinions of a nationally representative sample of 1,200 Filipinos 18 years old and above, the public’s sense of what the Arroyo administration must immediately address places issues relating to former President Estrada – e.g. restoring people’s trust in government and its officials (6th place, identified by 20 percent in a multiple-response-allowed survey probe), curbing government graft and corruption (8th place, 18 percent), or effective enforcement of the law on ordinary as well as influential citizens (10th place, 14 percent) – rather low in their list of 12 most urgent concerns.

On the other hand, attaining national economic recovery (1st place, 48 percent), alleviating the great poverty of many Filipinos (2nd place, 40 percent), promoting peace in the country (3rd place, 38 percent), fighting the high prices of basic necessities (4th place, 34 percent), and increasing the low pay of workers (5th place, 28 percent), impress people so much more as needing urgent action. In his current condition, former President Estrada definitely becomes marginalized when people struggle to keep on top of these economic and political challenges. Even peace in the country is viewed of these economic and political challenges. Even peace in the country is viewed as primarily the successful resolution of the Abu Sayyaf threat – perceived by a huge majority (77 percent) to be the most dangerous armed group – rather than the effective abortion of "class wars" which images of the May Labor Day storming of Malacañang conjure and where the former president is regarded as one of the public’s central icons.

However, despite the diminished sense of urgency attending the former president and his Sandiganbayan trial, there remains a high sense of saliency for the issue of how his trial goes and how the Arroyo administration conducts itself during this legal and judicial exercise. The public demand for fairness for former President Estrada goes beyond the court room and reaches to the present administration as just about a third of the public (36 percent) now believes that the Arroyo administration has been fair and non-vindictive in dealing with him. Close to a third (30 percent) disagrees with this positive assessment and another third (32 percent) professes to be undecided on this matter.

It is interesting that even among the better-off class ABC – the class nemesis of the former president during his impeachment and subsequent fall from office – also just about a third (32 percent) now believes the Arroyo administration to be fair and non-vindictive to the accused whereas close to a fourth (23 percent) holds the opposite view and a huge plurality (42 percent) vacillates or is undecided.

No class war scenario is supported by these data and, together with the encouraging majority approval ratings gained by President Arroyo from all socioeconomic class, the split opinions of the public are better interpreted as a genuine concern for fairness for anyone going through a concededly difficult legal and judicial process.

Of course, it is quite possible that what luckily has depreciated as a potentially explosive political issue might be resurrected and draw enough of the public into a repeat performance of the May Labor Day incident. All that is needed to facilitate this dangerous outcome is for the administration to yield to those who counsel hardline, arrogantly provocative and provocatively arrogant measures in dealing with the deposed president. The administration unfortunately has a surplus of such counselors, the very ones who could not wait until soon after the May elections to arrest the former president and the very same ones who insisted that the mode of arrest must clearly manifest the humiliation of the accused.

President Arroyo has managed to regain practically all of the support which Filipinos in March 2001 were already extending to her, even as the political centrality of her immediate predecessor was then already on the wane. She risks losing again what the zealots in her administration jeopardized and irresponsibly forfeited between April and May 2001. Only the fortuitous combination of her activated political instincts – reflected in reconciliatory and populistic policies which the zealots vehemently criticized – and the traditional liberality of Filipinos with their political leaders managed to regenerate the public support her administration now enjoys and which it must increase even more to successfully govern a nation in crisis.

Governing a nation in crisis and successfully leading it out of its current mess is the political challenge of her administration. Trying former President Estrada is already a concern of the judiciary and must no longer be the focus of too much administration energy. Those zealots in the administration who persist in politicizing his trial plays with fire. Should they succeed in clouding President Arroyo’s better judgment, the nation will be in greater crisis as the former president indubitably will again become a critical political concern for most Filipinos.

The next time around, people might remember the May 1 Labor Day assault on Malacañang as a rather sociable picnic.