Polarized - SKETCHES by Ana Marie Pamintuan

Apart from debates on whether Joseph Estrada deserves air conditioning in his cell, the discussions yesterday focused on how his unprecedented arrest will affect voting on May 14. Both the administration and opposition coalitions claimed the arrest would work in their favor. The survey tailenders of the Puwersa ng Masa, in particular, are milking the arrest for all it’s worth, working the El Shaddai and Iglesia Ni Cristo crowd at the now de-secrated EDSA Shrine.

But would their efforts translate into additional votes? Maybe it would matter among those fighting for the ninth to 13th slots in the Senate race. Re-electionist Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago’s great take on Cruella de Vil will win her the votes of those who equate politics with entertainment.

For the front-runners, however, I think people made up their minds on their choices as soon as the candidates were known. The fortunes of Joseph Estrada will not dislodge "Kabayan" Noli de Castro from his slot.

Did Erap win sympathy because of his arrest? I’m sure he did, even among his critics. But does that mean the sympathizers will side with him? Just as his indictment did not erode his mass base, I don’t think his detention will convert his critics to his cause. Those defacing the EDSA Shrine have always been with him, and they will be with him even if he is hauled off to the national penitentiary.

Erap, however, has lost the Catholic Church for good after what his supporters did to the EDSA Shrine. I guess it doesn’t matter to him or his fans, but that place has been officially declared by the Vatican as hallowed ground, where prayers of the faithful can earn them indulgences. In the Middle East that type of desecration would have sparked a war.

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Erap could have easily told his supporters, including leaders of the El Shaddai and INC, to stay calm. But you can see he enjoys the disruption created by his fans. It must give him a sense of power – the idea that he can still make life miserable for millions of people even while in jail. And the sight of his die-hard fans defacing the shrine equated with his downfall can ease the pain of his humiliation. This is the revenge of Asiong Salonga: the thuggish mayor who used to piss on his town’s cops now has his followers pissing all over a place held sacred by the Catholic Church.

Don’t count on the EDSA crowd dissipating soon. Some rally leaders are saying they would not leave EDSA until Erap is freed or at least placed under house arrest. I wonder what the people of Greenhills have to say about that?

With politicians getting into the picture, this could last till election day. The buzz yesterday was that one aging politician who has brought this nation a lot of grief is trying to buy the loyalty of military officers with at least P300,000 each to persuade them to join the EDSA crowd. I am sure the politician won’t need P300,000 to get some police officers to go to the shrine. A group claiming to represent the Young Officers’ Union is also reportedly set to announce support for Erap.

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We’re polarized. It’s not the first time, however. We were even more polarized during the Marcos regime. Ferdinand Marcos made a lot of enemies, but he also built an impressive base of support. And he was a far more formidable man than Joseph Estrada will ever be: Marcos not only enjoyed a loyalist following, he also wielded absolute power, and no one will dispute that he was brilliant. Yet the nation survived that crisis. This should give the nation hope as dark clouds gather once again.

The latest survey of the Social Weather Stations showed it’s still 8-5 for the administration’s People Power Coalition. The survey was taken on the weekend when newspapers announced Erap’s certain arrest. The figure has remained unchanged for many weeks, despite all the turbulence in Erap’s life after Malacañang. If the figure is going to change at all after the events of the past two days, it should be in favor of the PPC. Let’s get Wigberto Tañada in, at least. We need more decent, intelligent people in that chamber of clowns called the Senate.

In the meantime, those who want to pray for the nation can go to the chapel of the University of the Philippines in Diliman, Quezon City for a Mass at noon today.

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OOPS… An alumnus of the Philippine Military Academy who said he has better uses for his testosterone reminded me that the soldier who became president of the Republic is a West Pointer, not a PMA graduate. The PMA has not yet produced a president. That’s a challenge to PMAyers.