A government adrift - GOTCHA by Jarius Bondoc

If there’s one thing Gloria M. Arroyo hates, it’s economic bad news. I found this out from the former economics professor when, about this time last year, I asked her if she as Vice President foresaw a recession. Business was then at standstill. Industrialists and traders could do nothing but watch sales charts drop as cronies ruled Malacañang. The only economic policy was gambling and conspicuous consumption of Chateau Petrus. Government was on deficit spending for two years in a row under Joseph Estrada after notching surpluses for three years under Fidel Ramos. Tax and duty collections compared to GDP were down in those two years too, after eight years of steady climb. Everybody in the five-star hotel ballroom, where GMA was guest speaker, wanted her to confirm what they already knew, but then also advise them on what they must do together. "I wish now that I hadn’t kicked you out of my U.P. economics class, where you were sitting in for free just so you could court the beautiful woman you’re with tonight," GMA revealed to me and the audience. "For then you could have stayed to listen to my lecture on the economic law of self-fulfilling prophecies."

Today the situation should look better. The economist is at the helm as President. The people – businessmen, professionals, workers, youths and all – have just tested once more the power that springs from their collective will and action. The world smiled anew at their ability for swift, peaceful change. All this should augur well for an economy set adrift by the do-nothing past administration.

Yet there’s no sign of quick recovery. Two months after the rise of a new leader, businessmen see no promise of brighter days. Factories are still running slow. Workers are opting for shorter workweeks at less pay just to keep their jobs. The peso is slipping back to P50-$1. Banks are cutting loan interests, but there are still no takers. Overseas remittances remain low, buoyed only by more seamen boarding international vessels. Foreign investors, the only source of fresh capital for a spent-up economy, are not coming in expected droves. They can’t, they’re having problems back home too. Japan, RP’s biggest trade partner, lender and donor, is sinking deeper in recession after a decade of false starts. The US, too, is beginning to feel the pinch from consumer overspending. Dotcoms are collapsing from pop-rice technology. Americans are bracing for Japan-like recession. The New York stock exchange is shaking, sending shock waves to Europe and Asia – and Manila. To top it all, world crude oil prices are about to rise again, not from OPEC but from Brazil’s giant rig crash.

There’s no prophesy to self-fulfill this time. The cracks are so wide for everyone to see. It’s no time for economic lectures, but for strong-willed state management.

Sadly, there’s none. In a developing country like RP, government – not private initiative – necessarily must lead the way. And in a system like RP’s, the President must lead government. Yet everyone’s going about their separate routes, pulling and pushing the President this way and that. Infighting among the AFP brass has just subsided – or has it? An episode of generals claiming credit for EDSA-II’s success, of demoting exposers of anomalies, and of jockeying for juicy posts had shattered the President’s veneer of command. Again rocking her is a Catholic archbishop ranting about a supposedly obscene movie that priests had found enlightening, that had won raves at the Berlin film festival, and that was directed by one of the President’s staunchest supporters. As if the ironies weren’t enough, the to-do coincided with a Vatican report of priests raping nuns then forcing them to abortion. Congress, meanwhile, the President’s natural ally in state management, is in election recess. The President must campaign far and wide for her partymates, lest she end up with senators from ousted Joseph Estrada’s camp. And the Estrada question remains unresolved. The Supreme Court has yet to decide with finality, despite an earlier 13-0 ruling, if Estrada is still President and thus enjoys immunity from plunder suits. The President has claimed that the suspense isn’t bothering her, but it does make businessmen nervous enough to suspend all plans. More so since Estrada is barnstorming the provinces, fomenting a class war against Rich People’s Power.

People expect the President to be bolder, to be revolutionary even, if only to harness people power into a potent force for economic recovery. But she isn’t. On the contrary, she’s too cautious, unsure perhaps if people power is a higher expression of sovereign will than election to Vice President and succession to President by contested resignation. The weakness she displays infects her subordinates too. Kidnappings are back, and the police seem helpless. So is jueteng, the vice that precipitated Estrada’s fall, and the kotong cops. Education officials whom the secretary caught red-handed filching the usual millions have the audacity to protest their sacking by invoking election laws that ban demotions during the campaign. Election officials themselves are blowing hot and cold about a special registration for 4.5 million first-time voters. The Comelec chief’s example of indecision flows down the line. A voter educator in Cagayan de Oro narrates that when he asked about illegal campaign posters, the Comelec regional attorney replied that if there is no complaint, there is no violation either. So he complained to the regional director, but got a similar cop-out reply about having no guidelines by which to act. All this time, 4,000 appointive government positions remain to be filled. Malacañang has yet to designate new bosses to government-owned and -controlled corporations, the front-runners of revenues. Yet it is wasting time plotting to wrest control of partly-sequestered but well-managed San Miguel Corp.

Leaderless government is going around in circles. So, thus, is the country. The pervading thinking among government planners and businessmen is to merely brace themselves for the coming economic storm instead of forging ahead to pass through it as swiftly as possible. Like, if giants US and Japan are getting rained in, so inevitably will RP. I’m glad I hadn’t learned about self-fulfilling prophesies.

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