Make or break - WHY AND WHY NOT by Nelson A. Navarro

Are we going to write off 2001 the same pessimistic way we kissed 2000 goodbye even before it could get started?

Same time last year, we found ourselves under practically the same disheartening atmosphere of doom and gloom. Bombs were exploding all over Mindanao and at one point in Metro Manila. The economy was one of the sickest in all Asia and getting worse than Bangladesh by the day.

And, yes, President Estrada was hemmed in by scandal after scandal, his once-phenomenal popularity sinking to sub-cellar levels. Every smart observer was predicting the nation would soon go belly up or its President unceremoniously thrown out of power, whichever came first.

Well, nothing much has changed. Politics has become more obscenely partisan than ever. The much-battered economy only survives in what passes for the intensive care unit of failed nations.

Estrada, it need not be pointed out, wallows in far deeper trouble than he – or any of his predecessors – has ever seen before. The BW stock manipulation scandal of 1999, as it turns out, has become mere chicken feed compared to the seismic explosions set off by former presidential drinking buddy Luis "Chavit" Singson in early October.

And given Clarissa Ocampo’s December 22nd "smoking gun" testimony, the Erap presidency cannot help but look like a huge beached whale or an aircraft carrier that’s been fatally hit by a cruise missile.

So badly crippled has been the administration, some say, that Estrada has been forced to engage outgoing Ambassador to the US Ernie Maceda, as his anti-impeachment guru. "Estrada has all the reasons to mistrust Maceda," says one pundit familiar with their very public falling-out during the 1998 elections. "But there’s just no operator in the business who’s shrewder and more capable of mayhem than Maceda. Sure, Maceda could end up selling his boss down the river, but survival is the immediate priority."

The Black Saturday bombings couldn’t have come at a better or worse time, depending on which side of the political fence you belong.

Had the bombings not occurred, the opposition view was that Estrada seemed ripe for the hanging. Ocampo would continue her famous account of how she met "Jose Velarde" and this would be corroborated by other eyewitnesses like Equitable PCIBank lawyer Manuel Curato and perhaps former Malacañang chief-of-staff Aprodicio Laquian.

Rumors speculating over the holiday weekend suggested that other presidential buddies or lackeys like Jose "Sel" Yulo, William Gatchalian, and even Mark Jimenez and Yolanda Ricaforte, the jueteng lady, were preparing to rat on their old friend and save their own scalps.

The Estrada camp has been equally confident not only about impugning Ocampo’s testimony, but also bringing about a quick acquittal for the embattled President.

But the bombings appear to have put all such maneuvers on hold. Reactions have predictably fallen along partisan lines. Estrada has wasted no time laying the blame on unnamed communists and Muslim elements affiliated with the opposition. Never to be outgunned, opposition leaders claim the administration is responsible for the senseless loss of innocent lives.

Neither side has, however, offered concrete proof or evidence. More disturbing may be the apparent tendency of top law enforcement authorities, particularly Interior Secretary Fred Lim and Philippine National Police chief Director-General Panfilo Lacson to be far away from the scene every time a major crime with deep political repercussions takes place.

Either the former adopts such a low profile that he’s practically invisible in the public radar screens or the latter is conveniently off again on some fund-raising trip to the United States. It is about time these two officials take full and firm charge of their principal areas of responsibility.

Neither smoldering political passions or the sad disarray in law enforcement circles encourage confidence that the mystery behind this latest terrorist attack will be uncovered any time soon; much less that the evil brains behind it will be exposed and duly punished.

The PNP and the National Bureau of Investigation have so far proven utterly toothless in the fight against terrorism, especially one as sophisticated and well-coordinated as last Saturday’s almost simultaneous five bombings across Metro Manila.

No wonder there’s wild talk of impending martial law or emergency rule, and it grows louder and more hair-raising with each pro-forma denial by Malacañang’s lackluster spokesmen.

What’s to be done to keep the nation from careening out of control? Let’s start with basics. First, enough of finger-pointing. Second, Lim and Lacson must take decisive and independent control of the investigations. Third, they must produce quick and credible results reasonably soon. Do I hear "Better luck in 2002?"

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Nelson A. Navarro’s e-mail address: [email protected]