Thinking the unthinkable - Chasing the Wind by Felipe B. Miranda

Imagine someone who does not approve of what one is doing as president of the Philippines, someone who also admits to distrusting the latter much. This person voted for him as President in 1998 and categorically says that he will not vote for him anymore if the presidential elections of 1998 were being held now in 2000.

Imagine this fellow living through current times in Metro Manila, having gone through the traumatic experience of his President being accused of being on the take for gambling money among other things, suffering rally after rally where he is excoriated for being a corrupt and immoral leader by the rallyists and their presumably moral organizers.

Imagine him hearing nothing from the President by way of a coherent defense against the allegations that are being hurled at the latter. Really, no defense except for the President simply claiming innocence and charging that everything is the work of political opponents who are out to destabilize his administration because they never really liked him in the first place.

Given this kind of person and his contemporary circumstances, should one still bother to ask whether he believes the President should resign or keep his position? The answer would seem pretty obvious.

Yet, it would be a good idea if one did ask. Given people with the same characteristics as this Metro Manilan, three out of four would indeed say the President should leave Malacañang but one would still disagree with the idea and be supportive of his continued residence in the people’s palace. Incredible? You bet!

Now imagine most Filipinos whose primary characteristics are not as severely against the President as this person’s, say those people who may still approve of the official as president of the country for whatever reason even as they might distrust him, or trust him even as they disapproved of his presidential performance, or are simply undecided about whether to approve of him or trust him, or, voting for him in 1998, might still vote for him if the elections were being held today in 2000.

When such people are asked whether they would like the President to resign his position, they are being asked to consider a prospect which most of them find psychologically unthinkable.

Thus, one must not be surprised that people’s current opinions on this matter had not explosively built up either way, for or against presidential resignation, since the provocative allegations of jueteng payola were made by Governor Chavit Singson against President Estrada early in October 2000.

Pulse Asia surveys conducted in Metro Manila chart those for resignation as being 31 percent on October 13, 2000, building up to 36 percent by November 7, rising to 38 percent by November 16-17, 37 percent by November 24 and declining to 33 percent by December 1, 2000, reflecting a trajectory which does not suggest a sustained take-off of this particular anti-administration sentiment.

For the same period, given the same dates, one would see much the same course of public opinion among those who are supportive of keeping the President in Malacañang as well as those who continue to vacillate or are undecided about the issue of presidential resignation.

The interesting thing is that, while the aggregate opinion had not changed much, much activity in the direction of public sentiments on this issue can be detected when analyzed by socioeconomic class, educational attainment or age of respondents. Even here, the opinion movements have not been all that large or dramatic, seldom exceeding 10 to 12 percentage points and therefore mostly within the sample’s margins of error (plus or minus six percent for this sample of 300 respondents), often changing direction over time and thus neutralizing or canceling out their effects within the grouping or across groupings.)

Since November 17, 2000 there has been no real runaway opinion either for or against presidential resignation in Metro Manila – presumably the most volatile area of the country – despite the sizeable rallies, the Senate jueteng investigation, the impeachment activities within the House and media’s daily dramatization of related events.

The relative stability of aggregate opinion need not imply disinterestedness on the part of Metro Manilans. Pulse Asia NCR surveys last October 13 and November 7, 2000 revealed much concern among the NCR public regarding the allegations of jueteng pay-offs to the President and other graft and corruption charges. The same surveys also point to people in the NCR as being concerned with presidential actions that must be taken to fortify public confidence in the President, as in the call by virtually half of the respondents (49 percent) for him to present hard evidence in support of his claim to innocence against the charges hurled at him by his opponents.

For a good number of Metro Manilans, roughly two out of 10 refuse to effect a closure on the issue of presidential resignation at this point in time, prior to the initiation of the Senate impeachment trial. A good number of those who disagree with presidential resignation probably also do not now have a final decision on this matter. For many of those who call for resignation now, a dramatic opinion change might still be possible. The rather erratic, often reversing, opinion patterns on this issue among various groups within the survey already point to this likelihood.

Apparently, even Filipinos in Metro Manila do not find it easy to contemplate, to judge and much less to act on issues where there could be a clearly losing party. Thus, on the issue of a presidential resignation or impeachment, there appears to be a continuing reluctance by many people to think the unthinkable.

This is where it becomes critical for the Senate to discharge its constitutional responsibilities in an impeachment trial honorably. Whether their verdict in this case is favorable or unfavorable to the President, Filipinos will profusely thank senators who, in the course of this difficult impeachment trial, are able to resolutely think through one of the nation’s most formidable unthinkables.