Erap needs more than 8 votes for acquittal - GOTCHA by Jarius Bondoc

So, what’s the basis for a two-thirds Senate vote to convict Joseph Estrada? Is it 24 allotted seats, meaning 16 convictive votes, as Kit Tatad wants? Or is it 22 actual occupied seats, ergo 15 votes, as Rene Cayetano pleads? Raul Roco says they’ll decide it in late February 2001, when they wind up the President’s impeachment trial – and only if they muster the 15 votes.

But Miriam Santiago gloats this early that LAMP already has eight votes – a "critical mass" – to acquit Estrada. She refers to partymates who opted to ditch defector Frank Drilon for Nene Pimentel as Senate President last Monday: herself, Tatad, Blas Ople, John Osmeña, Tessie Oreta, Juan Ponce Enrile, Greg Honasan, Tito Sotto. She predicts that Pimentel will join them. With such numbers, she says smugly, it doesn’t matter anymore if the two-thirds is 15 or 16.

Or does it? While it technically will need only eight or nine votes to acquit, it substantially would take more than that for Estrada to continue to govern if he can. Impeachment is not a legal but a political proceeding. At bar is not whether Estrada is guilty beyond reasonable doubt of bribery, corruption, culpable violation of the Constitution and betrayal of public trust. More important is whether he can and should still rule. That’s why the Constitution limits to mere removal from and disqualification from public office the penalty upon conviction. Only the regular courts may impose stiffer penalties, such as death, for heinous crimes like plunder.

Another way of looking at it is the scenario worriedly whispered by businessmen: What if Estrada is convicted by a majority, say 13 or 14 votes, but not the two-thirds required by the Constitution? The prospect would be grim for Santiago’s "critical mass." Under such circumstance, it wouldn’t matter if the basis to compute two-thirds is the 24 allotted or the 22 occupied seats. What would matter is the people’s confidence in Estrada’s ability and moral authority to stay in office.

Going by surveys, that confidence already is eroded in the minds of almost half of the population. Street protests demanding Estrada’s ouster continue to swell with LAMP’s messing with the impeachment process, and Estrada’s extrajudicial confessions on Juetengate and his mansions. The outcry can grow to a majority by the time prosecutor-congressmen present his serial crimes before senators-jurors. For, by then, the economy would be in ruin, as Estrada’s managers Jose Pardo, Felipe Medalla and Rafael Buenaventura themselves forecast. Each day’s delay of Estrada’s departure would send more investors fleeing, myriads more than the present 3.5 million losing their jobs, and government vainly trying to deliver basic services because of low tax collections.

Pimentel probably had this in mind when he acknowledged that "the people will be the ultimate judge" of the impeachment case. He said that the speed and probity of the trial will determine if the public will accept the verdict. He agreed with deposed Speaker Manny Villar that "the economy will certainly suffer if the outcome of the entire process is tainted by political maneuverings." And he admitted that such outcome will not be confined to the halls of Congress.

Already, dark clouds are gathering over the horizon. Gasoline firms have announced another round of price increases this month. Consumers will begin to feel the effect of the many other recent increases when they get their electricity bills by month’s end. Public utility drivers are beginning to grumble that the recent fare increases are turning out to be insufficient, what with continually rising prices of food and other basic commodities. Workers, too, are complaining that they can hardly cope despite the recent minimum-wage increase.

Hungry men are angry men. Their votes will be courted by runners in forthcoming congressional and local elections who predictably will position themselves as politically-correct, that is, anti-Estrada. This early, even Estrada’s partymates are distancing themselves from him, fearful that mere association is a kiss of death. They’re thinking of taking money from LAMP’s dwindling war chest, then run.

By mid-December, because of Comelec’s advanced deadline for filing of candidacies, Cabinet members who desire Congress seats will resign. They’ll say they don’t really want to, for Estrada had sneered that those who left him in a flurry earlier this month are not real men; and they had echoed him by likening the defectors to rats deserting a sinking ship. But they’re beginning to look like terrified monkeys clinging to Estrada’s pants, not knowing where to go. So, go they must, and leave Estrada with a handful of greenhorns.

All this, while the Senate trial skates on thin ice of public distrust. Each day, a million cellphone text messages circulate that Malacañang is buying off senators at P100 to P200 million apiece to vote for acquittal. The messages are unconfirmed, but they nonetheless express the people’s low regard for their political institutions and leaders.

And so, at the end of the day, Santiago’s "critical mass" of eight or nine senators would prove insufficient to restore confidence in Estrada as President Estrada would need 13, 14 or 15 votes for a convincing acquittal. In which case, he’d have to try harder; more so since he can’t be too sure if one or more senators from Santiago’s list would forfeit their place in history just for him.

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INTERACTION. Ched Arzadon, Dagupan: With all the juicy deals they got from his administration, I’m sure Erap’s pals and kin won’t mind going to jail for him (Gotcha, 15 Nov. 2000). Besides, it’s not even possible under our rotten system. Look at all those Marcos cronies.

Bobby Gochango, edsamail.com: Send him to jail, so future Presidents will be served good warning.

Alvin Escuadro, njtransit.com: Your listing of congressmen for or against impeachment opened our overseas-worker eyes (Gotcha, 13 Nov. 2000). We thought it was a simple choice of right or wrong. We’re surprised that Butz Aquino supported Erap. Too bad not all Aquinos are as patriotic as Ninoy.

Berna Romulo Puyat, pacific.net: I was surprised to see the name of Neptali Gonzales Jr. listed among those who didn’t sign for impeachment. Didn’t he leave LAMP ahead of Manny Villar and was even at the EDSA Shrine rally?

Rodel Ocampo, hotmail.com: With your list, we now know whom to exclude from our ballot. On the P200 million jueteng bribe in Equitable Bank, isn’t this the same bank that gobbled up huge PCIBank with the use of SSS and GSIS money?

Samuel Aherrera, mydestiny.net: The list reflects the (im)moral fiber of our representatives, so how about an article, "Where Stands Your Senator"?

A.F. Cabaero, aol.com: Retirees are aghast that Erap admitted accepting P200 million in dirty money for supposed Muslim scholars, when he didn’t allow SSS to improve pensions from their own trust fund despite a petition by 10,000 retirees (Gotcha, 11 Nov. 2000).

Rub Oskar Esguerra, I’m a government lawyer who, for more than a year now, is very disappointed with the IBP, judiciary and politicians for their inaction on a revelation made by Erap in one of his radio-TV appearances on Jeep ni Erap. In that show where a topic was fake land titles, he boasted that soon after he became President, a friend came up to him to offer P500 million just to be appointed head of the Land Registration Authority. He said he rejected the offer "right there and then," obviously to look like clean and true to his word, "walang kaibigan, walang kumpare." He said he then proceeded to appoint Alfredo Enriquez, the uncle of you-know-who. Everybody around Erap just nodded in approval, and the papers treated it as a minor news the next day. It pains me that nobody cared to look at the matter the way it should be viewed – as an attempt to bribe the President, for which that friend should go to jail, and Erap too for not arresting him outright.

Rep. Ignacio Bunye, Muntinlupa: When the Sandiganbayan indicts a lesser public official, 90-day suspension is mandatory. By the same token, upon impeachment Erap must be suspended – or at least go on leave. The reason for the Sandiganbayan rule is to prevent the official from using his office to intimidate witnesses or tamper with evidentiary documents (Gotcha, 8 Nov. 2000).

Alex Sinson, pacific.net: Mayor Mathay is too busy accompanying Erap while Quezon City stinks from uncollected garbage, which includes hi- . . .

Thank you, Renato de Leon, Vincent Cruz, Dr. Jojo Paraiso, Amor Sulit-McCabe, Dr. Ike Santos, Greg Campomanes, Ben Ponce, Corinna Serrano, Ched Arzadon, Mckoi Pernia, Boy Ner, Angelica Paz Galia, Reo Andarino, Danilo G.M., Dexter Meniola, Cris Cabalatungan, Luciano de Guzman, Willy Villame, Joshua Santiago, Dennis Borja, Joey Legarda, Joanne Fernandez, Lawrence Go, Ed DeGuzman, Judy Kennedy, Gras Reyes, Bernie Nalex, Enna Alikpala, Cynthia Yaranon, Marilyn Cruz, Juan Ventura, Manuel Pison, Goofy Estamos, Virgil Ampil, Arch. John Ferrer, Sauro Talag, Lindy Jalbuena, Nelson Trinidad, Joey Tandoc, Danny Gimolatan, Danile Manalo, Roy Hautea.

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