Nobody’s thinking of Erap: This is the day all Australia stops! - BY THE WAY by Max V. Soliven

SYDNEY, Australia – This is the day when, all over Australia, from the Outback to the Snowy Mountains, from St. Kilda to Bondi Beach – at a certain hour, everything stops. If another country were to declare war on Australia today, the Aussies would snort: "Not t’day, mate! Attack us tomorrow!"

Nobody will be thinking of Joseph Estrada, the self-destructing Philippines, nor even of Israelis dodging suicide bombers and punching it out with the Palestinians and their intifada. Every eye from Prime Minister John Howard’s to that of the Didgeridoo man’s will be glued to the telly, unless one is among the incredibly Blessed and Fortunate gifted by the gods with a ticket to the racetrack. Why? Today is when fickle Dame Fortune smiles on some lucky nag, lucky jockey, lucky owner, and a bunch of lucky bettors (keep an eye on those men with the Midas touch, Lloyd Williams and Kerry Packer who’ll show their hand in the last half-hour before the starting gun) at the most celebrated two-mile marathon on earth – the Melbourne Cup.

Twenty-four horses will compete. But "favourites" have won the Melbourne Cup 33 times for a 24 percent strike rate. And yet, first-time punters are being warned to beware. Favourites don’t always win. As one Sydney tabloid cautions: "Everyone has their own reasons to back a horse in the Cup. Family birthdays, favorite colors and the shape of the jockey’s posterior work as well as anything else . . . some seasoned punters never win. Other novices win first time."

The race starts at 3:20 p.m. today, Nov. 7, Melbourne time. After that, there will be some rejoicing and widespread mourning. Seeded to win, nags like "Freemason", "Far Cry", "Citra’s Prince", "Arctic Owl", "Diatribe." But who knows? A dark horse may upset the odds, even a nice big mare like "Pravda" (would you believe), if not "Pasta Express", "Skybeau", "Celestial Snow", "Brew", "Second Coming", "Lightning Arrow", "Coco Cobanna", "Bohemiath", "Out Unicorn", "Maguire", "Kaapstad Way", "Madridpour", "The Hind", "Hill of Grace", "Majestic Avenue", "Mr. Nelson", "Enzeli" (who did win the Ascot Gold Cup last year) or "Yippyio."

That $3.3-million tilt is not one for faint hearts or fading streakers. The best horses don’t come from Australia. (Only four Australian-bred horses have won the cup in 20 YEARS.) Eleven of the past 20 winners were bred in New Zealand, and five in the Northern Hemisphere. The most famous horse of all, Phar Lap, NZ-bred of course, was so legendary that when old Phar died suddenly in America ("poisoned", Aussies say darkly), the champion thoroughbred was reverently brought home after being immortalized by a taxidermist, and stands in pride of place in the Melbourne museum.

Many years ago, when this writer was young and foolish – and covering the death throes of the "White Australia" policy here in Oz – a benefactor bestowed on me that most-prized of all bonanzas: An "owner’s box" ticket to the Melbourne Cup. I have since regretted it, but having run a fever the previous day I gave my ticket to the Commonwealth driver assigned to ferry me about and told him to attend the Cup in my place. The poor fellow slobbered all over me in gratitude, kissing my hand, and calling on all the saints in heaven to reward me. Then he disappeared, lest I change my mind.

Many, it must be said, will be elbowing their way to the Cup today, hoping to catch a glimpse of the latest Cover Girl and sports icon, silver-plated Olympic Pole Vaulter Tatiana Grigorieva. Tatiana, a Russian import with a rose-tattoo on her (gee whiz) front anatomy, graced the cover of Inside Sport this week with "Tatiana Raises the Bar" as the caption (that’s not all she raised), while the men’s magazine RALPH blubbered, with the same lovely leaning forward on the cover, "Oi! Oi! Oi! It’s . . . Tatiana the Great."

I think one "Oi" should have been enough.

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It was sunny in Sydney yesterday. This grand city is still in euphoria over its grand Olympics showing. But the Australian dollar, despite the Olympic bonanza, has plummeted to almost par to the floundering Philippine peso – well, in relative terms. This doesn’t bother the 22 million Australians though. Millions all over this planet now know, thanks to that fantastic sporting event, that there are civilized cities like Sydney down in the Formerly Lost Continent at the Antipodes, where, only a few years ago, the world thought only wild Bushmen in Digger Hats inhabited a sunburst desert-land called the Outback and subsisted on Vegemite, while dark Aborigines (now delicately called Abos, and no longer ‘Gins) pranced around the boree log to the boomp-boomp-boomp of the Didgeridoo horn and jabbered about the Dream Time.

There was only one tiny sour note in sun-kissed Sydney yesterday, November 6. The Sydney Morning Herald (one of the newspapers which remembers there’s a place called the Philippines where the natives are even surlier than in Indonesia, and is north of East Timor) ran an editorial headlined: "ESTRADA ON THE ROPES."

Despite this gloomy description of Erap’s plight, however, the Herald’s editors did not condemn him so roundly.

While the editorial started with "President Joseph Estrada of the Philippines is in desperate trouble" and reports that the House of Representatives is beginning debate on a motion to have him impeached "over charges that he accepted millions of dollars in bribes from illegal gambling syndicates" and that there have been "mass defections from his ruling coalition (which) mean the Opposition can easily muster the necessary 73 votes in the 218-member chamber to have him tried by the Senate" it did not predict his downfall.

It concluded: "The question now is whether the anti-Estrada forces will generate the sort of mass passion that toppled the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. Many analysts doubt that they will, or that anything as dangerous is necessary. Recent weeks have seen some attempts to replicate the ‘people’s power’ rallies of 1986 – yellow shirts, confetti and rosaries – but the situation is very different, Mr. Estrada may be a crook but he is not a monster. He may be corrupt and a master of patronage politics, but he was democratically elected. He has said he is prepared to submit to a Senate trial, or a referendum. That was not the Marcos style."

That’s fair comment.

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Even before the Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, published yesterday, boosted President Estrada’s sagging morale (he’s reportedly full of "vim and vigah" and ready to fight back), the United States Department of State has been trying to quell speculations that the Americans are pressuring Erap to "resign."

Ambassador Mike Malinowski, the US Deputy Chief of Mission in Manila, has stated that the US will not interfere in the internal affairs of the Philippines during the current political crisis. The Americans, Alikabok told me yesterday, have said, in separate meetings with the President and his opposite number, Opposition leader and Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, that they will support the Constitutional process and will recognize "only duly elected officials" of the Philippine government.

US intelligence representatives, in the meantime, have held discreet meetings with Philippine military officers of "star-rank" and, basically, reiterated to them that it’s best they remain "neutral" and stay put. My spook-chasers inform me that there are about 250 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives within our military. They were first put in place during the former Cory Aquino administration when the Americans became alarmed at the five coup attempts which occurred during her tenure in office. I’m informed that these "operatives" are organized in cells – their existence unknown to other cells – and report directly to American intelligence supervisors scattered all over the country.

Incidentally, there’s a confidential "report’ which has just leaked out to the effect that radical Leftists (why not just call them "Communists"?), eager to spark the current anti-Estrada frenzy into violence, have been planning to assassinate "some leading political figures" so the government will be blamed. Isn’t this a reprise of the horrible 1970 Plaza Miranda "bombing", said to have been masterminded by Joma Sison (as alleged by balik-society ex-New People’s Army Commander Victor Corpuz)? The late President Marcos (and even, in a reverse speculation, the late Sen. Ninoy Aquino) were "suspected", but it was the NPA, in fact, who had carried out the grenade-attack?

It would be wise for Mr. Estrada, in his resentment of the rallies and attacks on him, to stop hurling invectives against the so-called "elitists" and "insulares" and "peninsulares." By fanning the embers of class war, he would be playing right into the hands of the Leftists and Communists. That’s what they devoutly wish: The instigation of "class struggle" and an artificially-provoked poor-versus-rich confrontation.

Let’s follow the Constitutional process enshrined in the "impeachment" move. Estrada says he’s ready to defend himself in an "impeachment" trial and claims he will prove he’s innocent. The Opposition and his critics will have their opportunity to prove him "guilty." But, above all, everybody knows it’s a battle of perception.

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THE ROVING EYE. . . Somebody, particularly the officers of the Presidential Security Group, ought to remind the Chief Executive that it’s high time the NINE French-made "Mistral missiles" emplaced in Malacañang underwent a safety inspection by the French manufacturers, Matra-Lagardere. Before anybody goes off half-cocked and accuses Erap of having had those missiles installed in Malacañang, I hasten to say that they were installed there by the Cory Administration AFTER the December 1989 RAM-YOU-SFP attempted coup, during which an Air Force OV-10 "Bronco" aircraft piloted by rebels attacked the Palace. That’s another occasion when the peso and the economy almost crumbled, if you’ll recall. Those Mistral missiles, incidentally, are of the "fire-and-forget" variety, meaning they cannot be electronically aborted or exploded if they go off by accident. What if one were to accidentally be launched, and hit GMA on her noggin? Or Frank Drilon in his more vulnerable area, halfway down? Or Mar Roxas who’s still fleeing from his earlier "entanglement" with Erap? Who would be blamed?