EDITORIAL - The path to recovery

See what even the possibility of departure can do. The peso, pushed to record lows since the jueteng scandal erupted early last month, surged dramatically yesterday, strengthening to 47.95 per dollar before closing at 48.05 – a hefty gain of 2.45 from 50.50 at the close of trading before the holidays, when the currency hit an intraday low of 51.95. The stock market also rebounded by 16 percent, posting its biggest one-day gain since its surge of 16.3 percent on July 28, 1987.

Malacañang was quick to take credit for the rebound, with officials saying the market rally indicated the administration was doing something right. Market analysts, however, credited the rebound to developments during the holidays indicating that President Estrada is on his way out. The analysts cited the mammoth rally at the EDSA Shrine last Saturday to press for the President’s resignation, defections from the ruling Lapian ng Masang Pilipino coalition as well as the certainty of impeachment now that the embattled Chief Executive has lost the numbers in the House of Representatives. The united opposition has tasked former President Corazon Aquino and Manila Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin to handle any negotiations for the President’s exit.

Market analysts believe there will be some retreat in the coming days, noting that the rally was too fast. Also, despite the street protests and defections, President Estrada has dug in, maintaining that the only way he would step down is through impeachment. The trial can take months, given all the charges that must be resolved. The President stands accused of four impeachable offenses: bribery, graft and corruption, betrayal of the public trust and culpable violation of the Constitution.

Still, the House of Representatives has finally seen the light and is moving quickly to forward the impeachment case to the Senate. As the House opened the impeachment hearings yesterday, its justice committee endorsed the complaint. Market analysts said the prospect of change in the horizon propped up the peso and boosted shares. If the administration wants to know where national salvation lies, it can find some answers in the markets’ performance yesterday.