The Filipino dilemma — WHY AND WHY NOT By Nelson A. Navarro

NEW YORK – The Philippines finds itself once again stuck with the old dilemma of wanting to dispose of a president who has lost credibility and being derailed by the perplexing question of which particular new leader to turn to.

For the beleaguered Estrada regime, this can only buy more time to shore up its crumbling defenses and to sow poisonous intrigues among the parties working for its overthrow.

After being in the receiving end of Juetengate for one whole interminable and hellish week, President Estrada appears to have regained his stride against opposition forces already delirious (and some say already squabbling) over the regime’s supposedly impending downfall.

Theoretically united against Estrada, the suddenly recharged opposition appears to be more and more torn about what to do next. Chavit Singson’s revelations of multi-million payoffs and shameless behavior against his erstwhile friend and political patron can only go so far in terms of shock value. "Granting Erap is a crook," asked one analyst, "But who gets to take his place?"

Because Estrada won’t resign in favor of Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the door appears wide open to any number of scenarios ranging from an apparently doomed impeachment move (congressional head count heavily favors Estrada) to the ultimate remedy of snap elections. There are also fears of a naked power grab or coup d’ etat led by Estrada or some generals wishing to take advantage of the confusion.

Estrada further raised the ante over the weekend by openly charging former President Fidel Ramos of plotting to create an "Indonesia-style" situation, which includes bombings and disturbances culminating in a military coup.

Malacañang has, in the mean time, taken heart from Pulse Asia’s recent poll showing that 53 per cent of 300 Metro-Manilans don’t favor the resignation of Estrada. The President lost no time claiming "the people are still with me."

Some critics punched on this claim by pointing out that virtually all other newspaper and on-line poll surveys with far more respondents and bigger geographic reach have called for resignation by as much as 87 percent. Scientific or not, they say, the Pulse Asia shows a deeply divided nation, with just over half the respondents favoring the President on a very serious issue. This in itself, they say, proves the point that the regime is clinging to power by its fingernails.

"We’re back to the apple of discord," said this perceptive observer who just sent me a blistering e-mail from Manila. "Like Ferdinand Marcos in 1983 following the Aquino assassination, Estrada knows that on the other side of an administration fighting for its survival will always be a wildly expanding opposition that can only be divided against itself. An endangered president can always count on the wannabes to slit each other’s throat while he or she hopefully buys more time for himself. Or gets more rope on which to hang."

The trick worked for Marcos, this observer noted, for more than two tumultuous years marked by the steady descent of the nation into political chaos and economic bankrupt, culminating in the Miracle at Edsa in February 1986.

Extending the analogy, it must also be noted that roughly the same divide-and-rule tactics served Marcos’ successor, President Cory Aquino, who was plagued with coup attempts practically from Day One of her ineffectual regime.

Thus, the current spectacle of many so-called "seguristas" rushing to Arroyo’s side upon her triumphal return from Istanbul and Rome. Others have put up stiff resistance to her very belated and, some say, "highly opportunistic" emergence as a rallying symbol of the opposition.

Already, there’s talk that Arroyo does not really belong to the Lakas-NUCD but to her personality-based party called Kampi. This has put her in collision course with Ramos loyalists, some of whom are said to be beguiled with the idea of their old boss somehow making it back to power.

Then there are cause-oriented groups and independents like Aksyon Demokratiko’s Raul Roco who don’t buy Arroyo’s wished-for succession to the presidency and who assume they have much to gain from that other constitutionally-sanctioned scenario, snap elections.

This snap election is premised on Estrada’s resignation (not yet in the cards). Either Estrada will run for a fresh mandate or put up his designated successor. The opposition, of course, faces the absolute need to stand behind one candidate as they previously did in 1986 behind Cory Aquino or fall separately.

What then to expect? The political pot to keep boiling into the dark night of the Filipino soul. After Cardinal Sin and the entire Roman Catholic hierarchy have effectively stripped Estrada of all moral authority, the stage has been set for trench warfare just as convoluted and perhaps just as savage as the one that overthrew the unlamented Marcoses.

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Nelson A. Navarro’s e-mail address: [email protected]