The Beijing kowtow - Why And Why Not

Every Philippine president from Ferdinand Marcos to Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos has dutifully kowtowed to Beijing's communist mandarins. Long in ceremony and profuse with avowals of eternal friendship, each presidential obeisance carefully avoided what would have been deemed a total "sell-out" of Taiwan.

Hewing close to the shrewd American formula devised by Richard Nixon in 1972, President Joseph Estrada's predecessors officially recognized "One China" -- meaning the Beijing rulers -- but unofficially also maintained close and lucrative relations with the "Other China" based in Taiwan.

Estrada's current visit to the mainland signals the end of this informal "Two China" policy. For better or worse, Manila appears to have made a clear and unmistakable break with Taipei.

Perhaps the noisiest indicator of this virtual defection to Beijing is the administration's all-out support for Philippine Airlines in its raging war of attrition against two Taiwanese airlines. Never mind if this could ultimately lead to the loss of millions of dollars in tourist revenues and foreign investments and of thousands of jobs for overseas Filipino workers. One instant damage to Philippine-Taiwan relations is the suspension of direct flights, prompting long and expensive detours through Hong Kong.

The waltz away from equidistant ties with Beijing and Taipei actually begun much earlier in the first few months of the Estrada administration. Unlike his predecessors, observers say, Estrada is the kind of leader who can't be bothered by the delicate language and convoluted niceties of foreign policy. What you see is what you get.

It was under Estrada's auspices that the two main rival Chinese business groups, one avowedly pro-Taiwan and the other pro-Beijing, found themselves in one unified confederation. It's no coincidence that on Estrada's five-day visit to Beijing, Shanghai and Xiamen, ancestral home of most Filipino-Chinese families, some 100 or a who's who of Chinoy businessmen are tagging along with the presidential party.

High-profile receptions will be hosted in Beijing by the taipan most identified with Beijing and in Shanghai by the taipan most identified with Taipei. A few months ago, in fact, these two men struck an open family alliance, with the pro-Beijing one marrying off one daughter to a son of his pro-Taiwan counterpart.

So seemingly unequivocal is the Estrada kowtow, that this trip has been likened to an 18th century Beijing pilgrimage of a Filipino Muslim sultan who, unfortunately, got sick, died and was buried in the Zhandong Peninsula. The difference, of course, is that the sultan had come as a vassal required by ancient tradition to pay homage to the Chinese emperor. Estrada comes as the representative of a sovereign people to promote stronger ties and be counted on the good side of Asia's emerging superpower.

Both Beijing and Manila are bent on improving relations that have lately been strained by conflicting claims over the Spratlys and such major, if downplayed, irritants as illegal immigration of Chinese and rampant smuggling of shabu or poor man's heroin from the mainland.

There has been a steady parade of official visits between the two capitals. President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhong Rongji have visited Manila in recent months. So have Filipino leaders, notably senators and Cabinet members, made appearances in the Chinese capital.

Last March, it was Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's turn and she was reportedly given "the whole works" befitting a head of state.

"Those shrewd Chinese," notes one analyst, "are making sure they cover all the bases. With Estrada and Arroyo more or less in the bag, they have little to worry about in the Philippines." Or so they assume.

With Estrada all but forsaking once-intimate and personal ties with Taiwan (his original financial supporters were pro-Taiwan), what's in store for Philippine-China relations?

For starters, the convenient muddling of the Spratly issue which, according to some policy experts, has been turned on and off by China to make her neighbors behave. With Estrada ditching Taiwan, there's no point alienating the Filipinos and pushing them back towards the embrace of Washington. Expect the tune to shift to "joint development" of the Spratlys.

Speaking of the Americans, Taiwan faces a tough period ahead. Both U.S. presidential candidates, Al Gore and George Bush, are deemed to be "soft" on Beijing and hardly disposed to go to war to "save" Taiwan.

Already, Taiwan's frantic efforts to upgrade its military defenses, backed by conservative Republicans, has been stymied by liberal Republicans and the Clinton administration alike. This could embolden Beijing to turn the heat on Taiwan and wage a military invasion that once seemed adventurist and improbable. Estrada is just betting on the most likely winners and he could well be right.