Erap goes to Paris - Why And Why Not

PARIS -- Malacañang's bright boys may just have to downplay "unrealistic expectations" and look for the silver lining behind President Estrada's upcoming trip to this glittering French capital in early June.

This is the word that's coming out of Filipino officials both in Manila and in Paris who are frantically (and needlessly) working behind the scenes to make the President's Parisian sojourn, scheduled for June 6-7, measure up to the pomp and pageantry of visits to Beijing in late May and to London from June 2 to 5.

But the French, who invented protocol or at least polished it for modern times, appear to be firm about giving Estrada a polite but low-profile welcome.

In diplomatic parlance, Estrada will be here on a "working visit" or largely in his private capacity. At best, he may get a handshake and perhaps a short lunch with President Jacques Chirac. This is in contrast to the top-of-the-line "state visit" which entails formal arrival and departure honors, state receptions and high-level meeting. A step below is an "official visit" which eschews formalities but still involves government-to-government contact.

Unfortunately for Estrada, France has already lionized former President Cory Aquino with a full-blown state visit in 1989. She was, in addition, the special guest of the Francois Mitterand regime for the bicentennial of the French Revolution.

Former President Fidel Ramos, who succeeded Mrs. Aquino, came over for an official visit in 1994, which was highlighted by the famous San Diego exhibition of treasures from a sunken 17th century Philippine galleon. A working visit followed in December 1998 when Ramos came over to receive the UNESCO Peace Prize with his co-winner Nur Misuari.

The French, however, still have to reciprocate those high-profile visit of two Philippine leaders. Unfortunately, Mitterand was dying of cancer in the last years of his presidency and couldn't do much traveling. His successor, Chirac, hasn't found time to visit Manila. And with French politics heating up so early for the 2002 presidential elections, what with crucial municipal elections scheduled next year, the reelectionist Chirac's chances of getting anywhere close to the Philippines appear nil.

One delicate way of putting this situation in perspective is that Philippines has "exhausted" what's understood to be its quota of state and official visits and can't possibly expect more until the French have evened up the score. It's just Estrada's luck that he may come to Paris and he pleases, but he'll have to make do without the red-carpet treatment.

Whether with France or any other country, state and official visits are arranged more than a year in advance and are usually associated with major developments in state-to-state relations. Estrada sent word of his coming only in early March or barely three moths before his scheduled arrival.

Mrs. Aquino had history on her side. There was much French enthusiasm for the EDSA revolution, France having been the first foreign state to recognize her government and not that of Ferdinand Marcos. For Ramos there was the great interest shown by French investors who, in 1997 alone, poured some $650 million in investments in the Philippines, topping even our traditional partners like the Japanese, Taiwanese and Americans.

Although the Philippines no longer draws much French attention, much less favorable media coverage (very bad in recent months because of the BW scandal and the fugitive French oil executive holed up in Manila), French businessmen have retained a keen interest in the Philippine economy.

What Estrada may miss in pageantry, says one top Philippine Embassy official, he could very well make up for with back-to-back meetings already being lined up with high-stakes players like Lyonnais de Oeaux, which is involved in Manila's water system, the Divendi group, which is part of the mammoth Fort Bonifacio project, and the Banque Nationale de Paris-Paribas, the biggest banking-investment group in France.

Also scheduled to meet with Estrada are representatives of Thomson and Dassault, two of the biggest defense and electronics giants, and the manufacturers of Airbus, suppliers of jumbo jets to Philippine Airlines.

Spearheading these efforts is the Movement des Enterprises de France or MEDEF, the French equivalent of the Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP). In fact, MEDEF has been planning a joint program with the Makati Business Club for late 2000 but has decided to step up preparations to take advantage of Estrada's presence in Paris.

As for the 15,000 Filipino expatriates in Paris, it's never been a problem for them to turn out in full force for a visiting Filipino President. Asked what else can Estrada do in France aside from doing business, one long-time Filipina resident said: "He should go down to Lourdes because this is a Holy Year and we are a Christian nation. There he can ask Mama Mary to really bless and protect our poor country."

Nelson A. Navarro's e-mail: [email protected]