Confrontational mien will polarize society - Gotcha

Presidential advisers presented Joseph Estrada two options. He can either suspend SEC chief Perfecto Yasay and charge him with economic sabotage for trying to stop Wednesday's stock market trading. Or he could announce a successor when Yasay steps down March 25.

It took Estrada only a minute to take the first tack, which suited his macho movie image. When Yasay growled that he would take back his March 25 resignation and stay on until his term expires in 2003, it took Estrada another night to sleep things over and take the second route.

It still wasn't enough to soothe the few stock traders left in town. For all the vaunted collegial wisdom of his Economic Coordinating Council, they had withheld a third option, one so bold it could create a new image and even set a new policy direction for Estrada: to convince Yasay to stay, and the stock exchange to heed demands of the 22 investigators who had walked out of their jobs.

His advisers instinctively had kept that option out, even if it could have enticed fleeing foreign fund managers back. It wasn't in keeping with the boss' confrontational mien which they had imbibed. They viewed consensus-building as a sign of weakness. They couldn't risk Estrada's ire and overturn months of fawning to gain presidential confidence. For them, the easiest, most logical stand was to hold the line and defend the fort against saboteurs, destabilizers and imagined enemies all around.

Such was the decision process that capped a tumultous four weeks in the stock market. Such is the siege-mentality that's polarizing society.

Talking Yasay into staying would have sent a strong message to all: Here was a President firmly in command because of an ability to work even with perceived foes. Whatever little quarrels Yasay has with his four commissioners could be fixed along the way.

Exerting presidential influence on stock exchange broker-governors would have displayed even greater control. The three demands of the 22 members of the compliance and surveillance group were reasonable: no firings for their scathing report on the involvement of eight brokers and presidential pal Dante Tan in price manipulation, reconstitute the board of governors to include more nonbrokers, and appoint only nonbrokers as exchange managers. Such demands reflected the very signals that fund managers and traders wanted to see before they returned.

That's now all hindsight. It will go into the long list of other what-could-have-beens -- had Estrada strictly enforced his walang kamag-anak, walang kumpare rule, struck up good press relations, imposed government austerity instead of giving away smuggled luxury vans, invited foreign investors through roadshows and laws instead of Cha-cha, harnessing clergy support, and heeding opposition critics instead of sneering that they try winning the Presidency first.

Now the Estrada team will have to walk on more eggshells. They need to keep the peso from tumbling as foreign investors buy back their dollars to move to other Asian markets. A further drop of the peso would drive up the cost of imports -- a bane for manufacturers in need of raw materials, traders in need of finished goods, and consumers who buy from both. It also would raise fuel prices higher than what to expect from OPEC production cutbacks, and consequently prices of food, medicines, electricity and transportation.

When that happens, public disenchantment will worsen, protests will heighten. Predictably Estrada will imagine a graver conspiracy to bring him down --an unlikely conspiracy in which communists and big-business will unite to use the press, priests, workers, students and opposition politicians. He will try to sic his masa on the elite, to no avail.

One needs allies to survive the Malacañang snake pit. With Lenny de Jesus out, Spokesman Jerry Barican now reports to presidential media adviser Eleanor Laquian, something Press Sec, Rod Reyes refuses to do.

INTERACTION. Jay Entruda, Iowa: Signs are ominous. With Enrile portraying Erap as victim of scheming elite-clergy-students-workers, martial law is not far behind (Gotcha, 8 Mar. 2000). Recall the months leading to Marcos martial law. Enrile was its chief architech.

Will he fake a car ambush again, Jay?

Joey Legarda, Makati: The "Erap factor" is becoming more and more dangerous. As expected he's accusing the "elite"of trying to bring him down. Starting with his planned Marcos burial, he may go down in history as the most divisive President. Now he's pitting the poor vs the rich. The same surveys that said he would win in '98 are now saying his popularity is down. But he doesn't have the balls to call a snap election.

Rene Catal, aol.com: A common trait of Erap and Marcos -- chutzpa.

But, Rene, Marcos called for a snap election that Joey mentioned.

Bernie Cortes, usa.net: Your summary of presidential lies was excellent (Gotcha, 6 Mar. 2000). Re LTO, it used to take a month to get a driver's license card; then it became three, then six months. Why don't they make it three years?

You're getting sarcastic, Bernie.

Dr. Bernard Torres, ormocnet: I too have had a hard time geting a taxi at NAIA-2 because drivers demand kontrata instead of meter rate. I didn't bother to complain before, until I read in the papers about the same plight of others. Is there nobody out there who can help?

Only if there's money in such help, Bernard.

Dr. Zenon Udani, San Juan: I read somewhere that Erap has formed an anticorruption team: Lacson, Lim, Pardo. Injustice drives people to join the NPA. Corruption is a form of injustice.

Edlar, Antioch, Ca.: Can't figure out why, everytime Chinese intrudes into RP waters, Defense Sec. Mercado says the AFP can't do anything. It's like giving away our military capability without China having to gather intelligence.

Robert Tolentino, usa.net: I think the balance-of-payment and export-surplus reports are window-dressed. The BOP does not include dollar salting; the balance of trade does not include smuggling.

Robert, is that why Pardo has a permanent grin?

Victor Sumagaysay, marin.org: Erap's coddling of Dante Tan eroded confidence in PSE long before Almadro resigned. Cronyism scared away investors long before the BW fiasco. If LAMP will charge Almadro with economic sabotage, it should praise Erap for saving the economy -- at least of a few Filipinos.

They're doing that already, Victor.

Ben Artiaga, BF-Paranaque: Criticized for an unrealistic June deadline for the Mindanao peace talks, Erap replied, "Mag-Presidente muna sila." He showed his inability to grasp the problem, and is destabilizing the nation. I wish he could be a statesman and do a Yeltsin.

Dream on, Ben, dream on.

YOUR BODY. Motorists taking over-the-counter cold remedies can run greater risk of causing traffic collision than drunk drivers, researchers at Iowa-U say. They studied drowsiness caused by diphenhydramine, contained in drugs for allergies, colds, rashes, and post-surgery nausea.

US experts are concerned that patients undergoing operation may risk unexpected bleeding and difficulty in blood clotting when they take ginseng, gingko, biloba or other herbs within two weeks of surgery. The familiar question before surgery, "Are you taking any medications?" should be augmented with, "Are you taking any herbal remedies?" says Dr. John Neeldt, president of the American Society of Anesthesiologists.

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