Staying the course - My Viewpoint

Some might say that this is evidence of some demolition groups trying to ensure that the discredited Stratfor prediction plays itself out. That mysterious group, after all, had predicted that President Joseph Ejercito Estrada would not complete his term. And one of the ways this could be done, Stratfor opined, would be through another People Power uprising. Now comes a group called the September 21 Committee calling for the President to resign or "face the people who will stage another revolt."

The President has reportedly ignored that call, saying this is "just a small group." And indeed, there is no reason to believe that there is any immediate danger of what some are calling "EDSA II." Former President Corazon Aquino has denied that she is calling for a popular uprising and stresses that all that is needed for now is more "vigilance." Even that recent HB & A public opinion poll which claimed that the disapproval rating of Estrada had risen to 38 percent (versus 12 percent in August 1998 and 40 percent in October 99) and that Erap would lose to Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo if elections were held today, also reports that 80 percent of those polled believe that there is not enough reason to call for people's power.

Any prospect of any such "snap" elections taking place is wishful thinking. Erap supporters would point out that the national elections were concluded in 1998 and their candidate won that one by a landslide. Vice-President Arroyo, if not quite co-opted into the administration, is not showing any signs of an impending break-away. In fact, she seems to be playing it purely by the book. She may be the immediate beneficiary of an unlikely Estrada resignation or, if the surveys are correct, a snap election, but she has consistently -- and wisely, we think -- refused to be drawn into any outcry for an abbreviated Erap presidency.

And, of course, we cannot discount those who believe, rightly or wrongly, that EDSA played a necessary role in our history but that its ideals were betrayed by some of its principal actors. There is still strenuous debate on what the EDSA "legacy" really consists of. Thus, there is skepticism about what the ultimate outcome of an EDSA II might be.

The unintended consequence, as Alejandro Lichauco warns, might not be a Macapagal-Arroyo assumption of the presidency, but some disgruntled generals putting a military junta in place. That scenario, Lichauco says, owes to a "widespread disillusionment with the succession of civilian government that came with EDSA."

There is disillusionment, to be sure, but I'm not sure this equates to a general willingness to throw our country back into the dark ages of political instability and uncertainty. I am convinced that there are more of us who want to stay the course, to tough it out with our democratic system despite all its imperfections and inequities. This is not because of any romantic attachment to democracy as a theory but because of a realistic concern about what demons we release when we tamper with a constitutional system which, at bottom, we have come to accept.

We have deep problems, yes, corruption and incompetence being the most persistent. But I doubt that we want to be another Pakistan which, even now, must rely on the promises of a military dictator as to when he intends to transfer power to civilian authorities. Besides, our central problem as a nation is still poverty, a theme which Estrada and his Erap Para sa Mahirap battle cry rode to victory. It is that same battle cry which is now cited by those who call him to render an accounting, if only a partial one at this early point of his incumbency. Direction is what people are clamoring for. Direction, and common purpose, are what immediately disappear in the division that results from political turmoil.

To argue against calls for resignation of the President, and for snap polls, is not to urge acceptance of the inevitability of our slow, collective death. Rather, it is to remind all of us that there is no deus ex machina, no quick fix. To think otherwise would be to fool ourselves.