In the West, three teams could prove very dangerous to the upper tier: the Utah Jazz, the Houston Rockets and the Denver Nuggets.
The Jazz in particular own victories over all three of the West’s elite teams, including two against the Spurs and three against Phoenix. If Phoenix holds on to the second seed, which is not yet guaranteed, a second round match-up with the Jazz becomes likely. Utah’s size and toughness in the interior pose a real tough match for the Suns. Steve Nash and the Suns would rather push the ball up and down the court than play Utah’s more methodical, half-court tempo. Phoenix has yet to beat Utah this season, and Carlos Boozer and the Jazz just might give the Suns a legitimate scare in the playoffs.
Houston, on the other hand, hasn’t beaten Phoenix, but has two victories each over the Spurs and Mavericks. If Dallas drops or the Spurs climb up to the second seed, the Rockets could potentially get a good match-up if they get through the Jazz. The Rockets have the personnel to potentially defend Dirk Nowitzki. They can use a combination of Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Juwan Howard and Tracy McGrady (who has given Dirk problems in the past). They also have the bodies to throw at Tim Duncan in post. Howard, Hayes, Yao Ming and Dikembe Mutombo are all big bodies that can bang with Duncan inside. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the league and should not be slept on. And let’s not forget that both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are healthy heading towards April and May.
By virtue of having Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, Denver is a threat to win any one game. Whether or not they can sustain enough defensive intensity to win a seven-game series is the question. Nobody on the Nuggets save for Marcus Camby can be considered an above-average defender, and that is their most glaring weakness. Of course, Denver still has enough weapons both inside (Nene, Anthony) and out (Iverson, J.R. Smith) to scare a team like Phoenix, whom they completely ran over the last time they met.
The East is obviously a lot weaker, and any of three teams above could easily win the conference. The fact that the East is so weak from top to bottom is precisely why an upset wouldn’t surprise anybody. With Gilbert Arenas cooling off and Caron Butler hurt, its more than likely that the Heat will take the Southwest division and Wizards will be poised for a first round exit. The only other real players outside Detroit-Cleveland-Miami are Chicago and Toronto.
Toronto has an outside shot to upset one of the top three teams because they’re getting great production from the point guard spot with T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon and they have the best big man in the Eastern Conference in Chris Bosh. If they catch Miami with Dwyane Wade still hurting or Cleveland on a cold streak, there could be hope. But like I said, it’s an outside shot. In the East though, an outside shot might be all it takes.
Chicago, on the other hand, has a legitimate shot to break into the East Finals. Not only are they the deepest team in the East, they’ve also proven they can beat any of the East top three, particularly Miami, whom they’ve beaten thrice already. Their defense can keep them close even against better teams. Their offense, though, needs to provide points consistently. Luol Deng has emerged as a legitimate threat to drop 20 points on any given night. If Deng, Gordon and Hinrich can provide enough punch, they have a good chance over glaringly flawed teams like Cleveland (outside shooting) and Miami (health, age, motivation).
Even though there clear-cut favorites in each conference, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these teams break into the conference finals. With the right match-up and a favorable bounce here and there, the NBA’s top teams may be looking at an early exit.