Inside Iran today

When Donald Trump declared war and started bombing Iran, most of the world was waiting for the time when Iran would finally surrender. Even when the price of oil more than doubled and the world was on the verge of a global recession, most people still expected that the United States will emerge as the victor.

It is now clear that the victor in this war is Iran and that the so-called peace negotiation is becoming more and more like the terms for a surrender.

It is now important that anyone interested in geopolitics must begin to understand more about the Islamic Republic of Iran.

It began in 1979 when the Ayatollah Khomeini established a theocracy by seizing power during Iran’s revolution. It was, however, his successor who transformed it into the country it is now. His name was Khamenei, who ensured that the supreme leader remains Iran’s paramount authority. He pushed Iran into pursuing regional dominance. The result would be perpetual conflict with Israel and the United States. He also transformed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) into the central pillar of the government.

On March 1, 2026, the Iranian government made an announcement: “After a lifetime of struggle, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei drank the sweet, pure draft of martyrdom and joined the Supreme Heavenly Kingdom.” After this announcement, there were those in the Western world who thought that would finally be the end of the Islamic Republic. However, subsequent events proved that this was not true. Iran’s clerical body called the Assembly of Experts chose another leader. The struggle continued and Iran was able to close the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a global increase in the price of oil.

The founder of the Islamic Republic

Khomeini’s view of the world was that the United States was the leading enemy of the Islamic civilization and Israel was the primary mechanism of American influence. This view would last for as long as the Islamic Republic continues to exist. The recent events show that this is still the prevailing view of the world by the current rulers in Iran.

Iran’s most likely future is that of a military-controlled authoritarian state. Under the previous rulers, Iran was ruled by a coalition between the civilian authority led by a president and the IRGC.

The declaration of war and the continuous bombing of Iran has served to strengthen the power of the IRGC. Iran’s elected officials have less power than ever. Today’s reform-minded president Masoud Pezeshkian is in a much weaker position.

However, there are conflicting reports that although the IRGC’s power within Iran has increased since the attacks began, their absolute power has been diminished because many accuse IRGC’s strategies and policies to have led Iran to the brink of defeat, bankrupted its economy and turned the majority of the Iranian people against the regime.

In an analysis by Professor Ostovar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, he writes that there is a group that could force the Iranian government to change its present course. It is the ordinary Iranians who have the best chance of introducing reforms to the government.

While the mass protests of the past have not brought about substantial reforms, Iranian society still has classes with real influence. One is the country’s small merchants or bazaaris who make up a small percentage of Iran’s population but control the traditional economy and important urban centers. During the first two decades of the Islamic Republic’s history, the bazaaris supported the theocracy but years of economic instability have eroded their support.

Iran’s many trade unions and guilds with influence over Iran’s energy and transportation sectors have suffered from the country’s economic decline. If the bazaaris and the labor unions unite, they could bring the Iranian economy to a halt through strikes and boycotts.

Iran’s young generation have no connection to the 1979 revolution and know the regime only for corruption and cruelty. Their lives have been shaped by decades of conflict and privation. They have led most of the protests and have suffered the most from the regime’s violent campaigns against dissent. They remain the most politically energized sector.

An alliance of the bazaaris, the labor unions and the youth sector could mobilize millions of enthusiastic followers that could conceivably gain power. This could be the equivalent of the people power movement that could lead to a downfall of an authoritarian regime.

This new coalition, if it gains power, would not automatically accept all the demands from the United States. However, they could accept basic issues like nuclear disarmament and allowing freedom of navigation for the Strait of Hormuz.

There may not be total democracy in Iran but there would be greater social freedom and the end of violent persecution of dissent.

The most effective way to transform Iran is to hope for an alliance between a people power movement and moderate members of the military.

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