Uptick in COVID-19 cases possibly temporary, no cause for concern yet — OCTA
MANILA, Philippines — The recent uptick in coronavirus cases may not yet be a cause for concern and should not yield an increase in restrictions for the time being, the OCTA Research Group said Monday.
Speaking at the Laging Handa briefing Monday, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said that the full picture of the coronavirus situation was not clear yet as the uptick could only be temporary.
The Department of Health earlier Monday also acknowledged what it said was an uptick in cases in Metro Manila’s cases and positivity rate after the capital region registered positive growth in COVID-19 cases in the past week at 49%.
“It could just be a holiday uptick. After the holidays, possibly the number of cases and the positivity rate will go down...In a way it was expected because the same thing happened last year due to the holidays,” David said in mixed Filipino and English.
“Because of the increase in reproduction number, NCR is now classified as low risk from very low risk,” he also said in a tweet though he was careful to clarify that these were based on metrics set by nonprofit Covid Act Now, not the same ones employed by the DOH and coronavirus task force.
This comes after two percent of tests came out positive for the pathogen on Sunday, marking the highest positivity rate recorded by health authorities since November. The two percent rate, however, is still well within the benchmark of 5% set by the World Health Organization for opening economies.
As it currently stands, all areas in the Philippines are set to remain under Alert Level 2 for the remainder of 2021.
12.27.21 NCR now at low risk (from very low risk) as the 7-day average increased to more than 100 for the first time since Dec 3-9 @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @ABSCBNNews @EagleNews @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews @dzme_1530khz @DrTonyLeachon @docbenjisays pic.twitter.com/FkZlAVFmRl
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 26, 2021
READ: DOH sees increase in Metro Manila's COVID-19 cases, positivity rate
“We are seeing an uptick in cases but it's not significant enough yet. But it is an alarm, it is a warning for us that cases might start to increase so we need to help each other out,” DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a briefing earlier Monday.
Reduced testing, complacency amid holiday season blamed
According to OCTA, the seven-day average of new cases in Metro Manila increased to 116 from December 20 to 26 after not breaching the 100-mark since the first week of December.
Guido said that this was to be expected given the pattern from last year but added that it was still linked to the complacency of Filipinos amid the holiday season.
“Our testing is reduced and like last year, there were laboratories closed so our output is lower. It’s not just the holidays, it’s also because of the recent typhoon that affected areas have lower testing because the laboratories are not testing,” he said.
“We must continue to be vigilant and practice minimum public health standards as we head into the new year.”
Though Metro Manila recorded an increase in hospital admissions, only 18% of the beds are occupied while the capacity of the national health systems also remained at low risk.
OCTA on Monday warned against “premature interventions” but urged Filipinos to get vaccinated and continue observing minimum public health standards.
David added that the group could also “not rule out the possibility” that the cases will also continue to rise for now since the holiday seasons are not yet over. He added in a tweet that researchers would know whether the uptick is a full-on surge "after the first week of January [or] possibly before that."
“If it’s still going up by February, we’ll have to reassess the situation, but if it’s a temporary uptick, if it goes down by January, there’s really no cause for panic...we can't say it's alarming yet,” David said.
“We don’t have the full picture yet. Let’s hope for the best and hopefully let’s help each other. The holidays aren’t over yet but hopefully, parties and social gatherings are winding down.”
To date, health authorities have recorded 2.84 million coronavirus cases in the Philippines, 9,579 of which are still active cases. 318 new cases were also tallied on Monday afternoon.
— with reports from Gaea Katreena Cabico
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