OCTA: Metro Manila COVID-19 reproduction rate up back to 0.70 amid holidays

MANILA, Philippines — After reaching a low of 0.42 in mid-December, the COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila now stands at 0.70 as of Wednesday, December 22, the OCTA Research Group said Sunday. 

The term reproduction rate refers to the number of persons a COVID-19 positive individual can infect. The new 0.70 figure is up from the first week of December from November 29 to December 5, when the reproduction rate was at 0.35. The new number, however, is still well below the critical level of 1.4.

In a statement, the independent pandemic monitor said that the Metro's reproduction number has historically dipped during the holidays possibly due to many people going back to their home provinces for the holidays.

"If we compare this with last year, the reproduction number also spiked before the holidays, followed by a dip during the holidays [and] then an uptick by the first week of January 2021,"  OCTA Research fellow Guido David said.

"The holiday uptick may explain the increasing reproduction number and positivity rate. On the other hand, a continued increase in the reproduction number during the holidays would indicate a pattern not observed in December 2020."

According to David, the reproduction number in the NCR "based on testing has also increased to 0.79." Numbers based on testing, he said, are a "more accurate measure... because it is not affected by backlog."

This comes after Metro Manila recorded 201 new COVID-19 cases on Christmas Day, the highest out of any region on that day per data from the Department of Health.

Within the capital region, the cities of Manila, Quezon, and Las Piñas topped daily cases with 58, 25, and 20 new cases for that day respectively. 

Outside of the 201 infections reported in the National Capital Region, the next-highest provinces on the list were Cavite, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental with 19, 15, and 15 cases tallied. 

"Whatever the case may be, we must continue to be vigilant and practice minimum public health standards as we enjoy the rest of the holidays. People with colds symptoms should be mindful of mingling with other people," David also said. 

The entire Philippines is set to remain under Alert Level 2 for the rest of the year. 

To date, health authorities have recorded 2.84 million coronavirus cases around the country since the pandemic began. 9,376 of these remain classified as active cases who have neither recovered or passed away.