Struggle between Heartland and Rimland

For more than a century, geopolitical writers have warned that China could one day threaten the world. As far back as 1904, Mackinder warned that “a stable ruthlessly run China could one day imperil the world’s freedom because it combined Rimland frontage with a vast Eurasian hinterland.”

In 1942, Spikeman predicted a modern vitalized and militarized China might command the Western Pacific and become a continental power of huge dimension. According to Prof. Michael Beckley, the great minds of geopolitics have long feared Eurasian giants like Russia and China can expand in two directions. They did not imagine that Beijing could reach for greatness in three.

The first direction is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of Xi Jinping which attempts to bind the European supercontinent through infrastructure, dependence and debt. These BRI outlays have exceeded $1 trillion, mostly in loans that give Beijing leverage as the world‘s biggest debt collector. This has also given Beijing political influence and security arrangements. It has made China a stronghold and a platform for expansion or coercion on a global scale.

The second direction is that China has tried to remove the maritime barriers that have prevented it from expanding overseas, especially in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. China’s navy is now the world’s largest by number of ships and its Coast Guard is much bigger than any other Asian fleet. It has also built a shipbuilding industry that is the biggest in the world.

China’s third offensive or direction is in the “cloud.” Its digital network is well advanced and its surveillance gear is used on every continent. US sanctions have not been able to prevent Chinese giants such as Huawei from dominating the 5G and the 6G telecommunications race.

Chinese AI models like DeepSeek have broad appeal, especially in developing countries. There are also efforts by China to control the materials like semiconductors and rare earth minerals that make those technologies and networks run. There was a time when the Western world led the whole world in this scientific and technological area.

Today, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia have now become competitive in this area. Beckley has characterized these two factions as the Heartland and Rimland. He says that these are the new battle lines in the war for the next global order. In the past, the two contending groups were called the West and the East.

The Heartland is made up of China and Russia, reinforced by Iran and North Korea. It includes smaller countries like Belarus and Myanmar. The Rimland is composed of coastal and maritime countries across North American, Europe and East Asia. Geographically, the Rimland countries surround the Heartland countries. At present, the Philippines belongs to the Rimland coalition of countries.

Although the Rimland coalition is unmatched in power, it is fractured in its purpose and policy. This tendency towards divisiveness has accelerated during the Trump era. Rimland adversaries have been able to exploit these divisions. Recent tensions over the war in Iran have caused open divisions among the western allies.

There was a time when there was more unity during the so-called Cold War. At that time, there were two major alliances in the Rimland. The first one was the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) composed of countries in Europe and North American. The second one was Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), of which the Philippines was a member.

In general, the Rimland coalition was composed of generally democratic countries, while the Heartland countries were mainly totalitarian. One other difference is that the Rimland countries favor multilateral organizations like the United Nations, European Union or ASEAN. The Heartland countries prefer a world that is carved into territorial spheres of influence. That is why Russia invaded Ukraine, claiming that it is part of Russia’s sphere of influence. China has gone one step farther and has claimed that the South China Sea is part of the territory of China.

One of the biggest weakness of China’s quest to be a world power is its dependence on foreign exports market. Its manufacturing sector accounts for nearly 25 percent of its GDP. Nearly a third of all goods worldwide are made in China. China‘s economy therefore relies on overseas markets to sustain employment and growth.

This gives other major countries like the European Union, Japan and the United States the capability of affecting China’s economy by imposing trade restrictions and tariffs. In fact, Professor Beckley has proposed in an article that Washington has a unique opportunity to push back against China’s exports surge. He proposes that the US should bring together advanced economies facing deindustrialization together with developing countries whose own manufacturing aspirations are being displaced. He also proposes that this coalition could then coordinate trade measures to protect their industries.

The Philippines has chosen to be part of the Rimland coalition. Hopefully, the recent overwhelming victory of the Democrats in the midterm elections will strengthen the unity among Rimland nations, which will ultimately benefit the Philippines.