Will Gina Lopez get CA confirmation?
An underappreciated event that will happen today, May 2, is the Commission on Appointments hearing on the confirmation of Gina Lopez as DENR Secretary. Her confirmation was deferred in the last hearing due to the numerous calls for and against her appointment, and today might be the make or break time for her. Her personality, competence, and her environmentalist credentials are very important, but beyond these are the political and economic impact and consequences of her staying as DENR Secretary.
The mining industry's contribution to the national economy in 2015 of P100 billion in gross production value and P85 billion in gross value added, accounts for 1 percent of our GDP. The taxes, fees, and royalties paid to the national and local government units amounted to P25 billion. If we include the unrecorded gold production of some P50 billion, the industry would be some 1.5 percent of the Philippine economy. In terms of employment, mining accounts for .6 of 1 percent and if we include the ancillary effect of mining on the host communities, mining could account for 1 percent of the total employment of the country. These minimal economic contributions of the mining industry to the total economy are among the main arguments against mining if weighed against the damage that the industry entails on the environment and ecology. But for a country as mineral-rich as the Philippines, with an estimated mineral ore reserves of $465 billion, it would be a tremendous opportunity and real loss for the country not to properly exploit these mineral reserves. It would contribute more to the economy, and improve the well-being of the people, if mining is environmentally managed and regulated.
The appointment of Lopez came about after she made an impressive presentation to Duterte on the excesses of irresponsible miners. She is a dedicated environmentalist with solid credentials who is lacking in technical qualifications, but with a track record of getting things done, particularly in the environmental field. Aside from her environmental/ecological support base, she has the backing of the indigenous population in the mining areas, and the younger sectors of Filipinos who are concerned about the environment for the future generations. I believe a large portion of the middle class supports her for the same reason.
On the other side, would be those who are beneficiaries of the mining companies, the local governments that rely on the revenues, and government officials who believe that the government could benefit from a proper mining policy. There are also Duterte supporters and campaign contributors who are in the mining industry who would not want her confirmation. Then, of course, the illegal and irresponsible miners would want her out of DENR.
The Duterte endorsement, which will bear heavily on the confirmation by the Commission, will be another balancing act of this government. The decision will weigh the economic and political fallout and long term effects of Lopez' confirmation. The economic consequences are a plus for Lopez as there are responsible mining companies that have shown the way by already doing environmentally sound practices which will be the template for the other companies. The political factors may be against Lopez as she is not among the Tier 1 personalities in the Duterte Cabinet. She lacks the personal connection and Duterte's criticism of the Lopez-owned ABS/CBN media network would be a point against her. On the other hand, easing out Lopez from DENR could cost Duterte the environmentalist constituency of Lopez and leave a political bad taste.
As of now, I would give Lopez a 55 percent probability of getting confirmed if the decision will be made in May 2, 2017. If it will be delayed further, her chances of getting confirmed will decrease and she will not likely get a reappointment from President Duterte.
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