Auto demand weakens as EV adoption accelerates

From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves

Event

April vehicle sales fell 18.9% YoY to 27,225 units, the steepest drop since 2021, as high fuel prices and inflation weighed on big-ticket purchases. Jan-Apr sales declined 11.8%, with both passenger cars and commercial vehicles contracting.

View

In our view, the industry is seeing clear demand deterioration from higher pump prices and weaker household purchasing power. Traditional ICE volumes remain under pressure, while xEV sales rose 288% YoY in April, highlighting a faster shift toward fuel-efficient alternatives.

Catalyst

Key sensitivities include fuel prices, financing costs, and consumer confidence. If oil prices remain elevated, we think total industry volumes could stay down high single digits to low teens this year, while xEV penetration may continue rising from its current 13% four-month share.

Action

We think auto exposure should be assessed through both volume and mix. GTCAP's Toyota remains resilient with 49.8% market share (ex-BYD), but lower industry volumes and FX pressure are earnings risks. EV traction helps defend relevance, though near-term margin impact should be monitored.

Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.