Auto sales softened in January, EV momentum builds
From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves
Event
Industry vehicle sales fell 10% YoY to 35,053 units in January and dropped 26% MoM after a record December. Passenger cars declined 20%, while commercial vehicles slid 7.9%. However, new electrified vehicle sales surged 63% YoY.
View
We think the January pullback reflects base effects and softer consumer sentiment rather than structural demand weakness. December’s strong close likely pulled forward purchases. In our view, sustained NEV growth signals a gradual shift in mix, supporting medium-term industry resilience.
Catalyst
If confidence and financing conditions improve in 2H26, sales could reaccelerate toward CAMPI’s 500,000-unit target. However, prolonged consumption softness or tighter credit conditions may cap growth closer to flat year on year despite strong electrified vehicle momentum.
Action
We believe auto-linked stocks and banks (i.e., GTCAP and MBT) with strong auto loan exposure may see near-term earnings normalization. Investors should monitor retail credit trends and EV adoption rates, as accelerating hybrid and EV penetration could support volume stability and pricing power over time (i.e., BYD via Ayala Corp).
Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.
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