Lending growth steadies with modest momentum
From AB Capital's The Opening Bell: Three Moves
Event
Loan growth held steady at 10.3% YoY in Nov-25, which was sustained by consumer and corporate credit demand. This follows a gradual pickup in loan expansion after policy easing, signaling that credit appetite is normalizing even as economic momentum remains moderate.
View
We think this steady lending underscores a soft but broad-based recovery in domestic demand. The pace is below pre-pandemic peaks, reflecting cautious borrower behavior and still-tepid investment. In our view, stronger credit transmission supports consumption and business cycles, but capacity utilization and confidence will determine the next leg.
Catalyst
Credit growth is sensitive to policy rates and sentiment. A further 25-50bps of BSP easing could lift loan demand toward 11-12% by 1H26, while persistent policy uncertainty or weaker activity might stagnate lending near current levels. We forecast 2026E loan growth to hit 11.6% YoY.
Action
Steady credit expansion supports financials’ earnings stability and asset quality. We prefer banks with robust CASA ratios and disciplined underwriting, as they likely capture growth without compromising credit metrics. Our top picks are BDO and BPI.
Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.
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